\Florida Senate race 2026 polls have swung from a dead heat to a double-digit Moody lead depending on the pollster, but the prediction markets aren't nearly as torn.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have Ashley Moody sitting as a heavy favorite over Angie Nixon with Election Day just weeks away.
Here's how the Moody vs Nixon race is priced on each exchange, and what's driving the gap between the polls and the boards.
These Florida Senate election odds have stayed remarkably steady even as the public polling has bounced around all fall.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (92¢) | $108.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | NO (9¢) | $1,045.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.6¢) | $108.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | NO (9.2¢) | $1,061.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
❗Note: where a candidate's own YES price trades above the other side's NO price, betting NO on the favorite covers a slightly broader set of outcomes for a better price than betting YES on the underdog directly.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Senate election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION which will allow you to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Florida Senate Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Florida Senate Election Winner market works like any other event contract board: shares are priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price maps directly to an implied probability.
A Yes share pays out $1.00 if that candidate wins the Nov. 3 special election and $0 if they don't, and traders can buy or sell their position at any point before the race is called.
This specific market resolves once Florida's special Senate election is officially decided, settling Marco Rubio's unexpired term through January 2029.
Ashley Moody (YES 92¢ / NO 9¢)
Moody's price on Florida Senate Polymarket trading has barely moved in weeks, and it reflects the structural case for her more than any single headline.
She's appointed incumbent, she's been outraising Nixon several times over, and Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
Traders are treating the Hope Florida Medicaid controversy and Moody's refusal to debate as noise rather than signal, at least for now.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢)
Nixon ticked up slightly on Polymarket after a round of tighter public polling, including a St. Pete Polls survey that had her within two points.
But the board hasn't moved much, since Nixon is also running well behind on fundraising and hasn't closed the gap in voter registration that still favors Republicans statewide.
Most of the recent Nixon coverage has centered on attacks against Moody rather than any independent momentum for her own campaign.
Florida Senate Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's Florida Senate market runs the same way, with Yes and No contracts priced in cents that translate directly into a win probability for each candidate.
A Yes contract on Moody or Nixon settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins the special election and at $0 otherwise, with traders free to enter or exit a position anytime before resolution.
Florida Senate Kalshi pricing settles the same way as Polymarket's board, once the special election is officially called on or after Nov. 3.
Ashley Moody (YES 91.6¢ / NO 8.6¢, +0.1 pts)
Kalshi has Moody priced almost identically to Polymarket, inching up slightly even as some public polling has tightened.
That gap between the polls and the board is the story of this race right now: traders are weighting Moody's cash advantage and Florida's rightward drift over any single poll result.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.2¢ / NO 91¢, -0.1 pts)
Nixon drifted down slightly on Kalshi even as she's generated real attention for her attacks on Moody over the Hope Florida settlement.
The move suggests Kalshi traders see that storyline as unlikely to swing enough votes to flip a seat Republicans have held comfortably since Moody's appointment.
You can sign up at Kalshi using promo code ACTION55 and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Senate Race
Polymarket and Kalshi agree almost to the decimal point on this one, with Moody trading between YES 91.6¢ and YES 92¢ across both boards.
Nixon shows a wider split: Polymarket has her at YES 11¢ while Kalshi has her nearly two cents lower at YES 9.2¢.
That gap likely reflects differences in each platform's trader base and order-book depth rather than any real disagreement about the race's fundamentals.
Neither board has reacted much to the tighter public polling, which tells you the smart money isn't buying the "dead heat" framing some surveys have floated.
For anyone tracking Moody vs Nixon strictly through betting markets rather than headlines, that Polymarket-Kalshi agreement on Moody is the clearest signal in the race right now.
One quirk worth flagging for traders: on both exchanges, betting NO on Moody is actually priced better than betting YES on Nixon directly, even though the two bets sound like the same wager.
That's because Moody NO pays out on any outcome other than a Moody win, not just a Nixon win, so it covers Gillespie and any long-tail result too, while Nixon YES only pays out if Nixon specifically wins.
Nixon's standalone contract also trades on a thinner order book than Moody's, and that lighter liquidity tends to push her YES price up slightly compared to where the true complement of Moody's price would sit.
❗ The upshot: if your view is that Moody loses this race, Moody NO is the structurally cheaper way to express that on both Polymarket and Kalshi right now.
Florida Senate Race 2026 Polls Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Florida Senate race 2026 polls have been genuinely inconsistent this fall, with some surveys showing Moody up eight to thirteen points and others, like an early-October Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey, putting her ahead by just two.
A separate NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll released around the same time had Moody up ten, 50% to 40%, underscoring just how much the public polling has diverged depending on methodology.
The structural case for Moody hasn't changed regardless: Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, she's sitting on a massive fundraising edge, and the state's voter registration gap keeps widening in Republicans' favor.
Nixon has generated real headlines over the Hope Florida Medicaid controversy and Moody's refusal to debate, but both the Florida Senate Polymarket and Kalshi boards have stayed close to steady through it, which suggests traders see those storylines as unlikely to flip enough votes in three weeks.
Watch for any post-debate movement, a shift in early-vote turnout data, or a true outlier poll from a pollster with a strong track record in Florida, since any of those could be the catalyst that actually moves these contracts.
Until then, expect Florida Senate Kalshi pricing and Florida Senate Polymarket pricing to keep moving in lockstep, with Moody as the clear favorite on both boards.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (92¢) | $108.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | NO (9¢) | $1,045.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.6¢) | $108.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | NO (9.2¢) | $1,061.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
The Florida Senate election odds look a lot more like a lock than the public polling suggests, with both Polymarket and Kalshi treating Moody as roughly a nine-to-one favorite.
Nixon has real momentum in the headlines, but until that translates into actual contract movement, this is Moody's race to lose heading into Nov. 3.
Whichever way the Moody vs Nixon matchup breaks, the gap between Florida Senate race 2026 polls and the betting markets is the thing worth watching into Election Day.
Florida Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Ashley Moody is a heavy favorite on both Polymarket and Kalshi, trading in the low 90s on implied probability against Angie Nixon.
What do Florida Senate Race 2026 Polls show in the Moody vs Nixon matchup?
Public polling has been all over the place, with some surveys showing Moody up double digits and others, like an early-October St. Pete Polls survey, putting the race within two points.
Where can I track live Florida Senate Election Odds?
Polymarket and Kalshi both list the race as an active market, and both update their Yes/No prices continuously as new money comes in.
Is the Florida Senate Kalshi market the same size as Polymarket's?
Both markets are active and liquid heading into Nov. 3, and Florida Senate Kalshi volume has run roughly in line with Polymarket's, though order-book depth can differ by the hour, which is part of why Nixon's price moves a bit more than Moody's on each board.
What does Florida Senate Polymarket pricing show right now?
Polymarket has Moody trading around 92¢ on a Yes share, implying roughly a 92% chance she wins the special election.
How does Florida Senate Kalshi pricing compare to Polymarket?
Kalshi has Moody trading a touch lower at 91.6¢, with Nixon priced a few cents below where Polymarket has her, but the overall picture is the same lopsided favorite.
When is the Florida Senate special election?
Florida voters go to the polls on Nov. 3, 2026, to decide who completes the remainder of Marco Rubio's Senate term through January 2029.
Why haven't Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon debated?
Moody's campaign has so far declined to schedule a debate, something Nixon has repeatedly called out on the campaign trail, though it hasn't moved the betting markets much.
What's the biggest difference between the Polymarket and Kalshi markets on this race?
The boards agree closely on Moody but diverge more on Nixon's price, a gap that likely reflects each platform's own trader base and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement on the race itself.
