Florida Senate race 2026 polls continue to favor Ashley Moody, and the prediction markets have only grown more convinced of it this week.
Polymarket now has Moody at 91% to hold her seat, with Kalshi tracking right behind at 90.1%, both ticking higher as Election Day draws closer.
Angie Nixon's price has slipped on both boards, even as she keeps pressing Moody over a televised debate the senator still won't agree to.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $9.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90.9¢) | $10.01 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.9¢) | $910.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Senate election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Florida Senate Election Odds: Moody vs Nixon on Polymarket
Polymarket's event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price doubling as the market's live-read implied probability of that outcome.
A "Yes" share pays out $1.00 if the contract resolves correctly and $0 if it doesn't, so traders are buying and selling conviction in real time as the Florida Senate race develops. This market resolves to Yes if the Republican nominee wins the special election, with any runoff or tiebreak procedure folded into the final call.
Ashley Moody (YES 91¢ / NO 10¢, +2 pts)
Moody's two-point bump lines up with where the Moody vs Nixon matchup has sat in public polling for weeks, with RealClearPolitics' average of recent surveys still showing her up by high single digits.
The incumbent keeps leaning on a nearly double-digit cash advantage and a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Bill Nelson. She's also declined, so far, to debate Nixon on statewide television, a decision her campaign appears comfortable making given where the market sits.
Angie Nixon (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢, -2 pts)
Nixon's two-point drop comes even as she's ramped up her public pressure campaign, publicly challenging Moody to a statewide debate before mail ballots were sent out and repeating her call for Moody's resignation over the Hope Florida Medicaid transfer.
None of that has moved the board in her direction yet. Traders still see her as a longshot, pricing her around the same single-digit range that followed her primary upset over a far better-funded opponent this summer.
Moody vs Nixon Florida Senate Election Odds on Kalshi
Kalshi runs the same basic mechanics as Polymarket: contracts price between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the market's live read on probability.
This particular market resolves by winning party, so the contract settles on which party's nominee ultimately wins the Nov. 3 special election rather than tracking an individual candidate's full term outcome.
Ashley Moody (YES 90.9¢ / NO 9.8¢, +1.1 pts)
Kalshi now has Moody at 90.1% to hold the seat, up another 1.1 points from where the board sat last check.
That's notable given the news cycle: Moody is actively fielding criticism for ducking a debate with Nixon, and the market still isn't flinching. It's a sign traders view the debate dispute as a messaging fight, not a real threat to the outcome.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.9¢ / NO 90.2¢, -1.1 pts)
Nixon's corresponding dip puts her under 10% on Kalshi for the first time since the primary results came in.
She's still generating headlines, calling out Moody's cash haul and tying her to Trump at campaign stops, but none of it has translated into price movement. The one scenario that could change that is a late debate agreement or a surprise in early voting turnout.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Senate Race
The two boards are, once again, nearly a mirror image of each other, and this update actually tightened that overlap.
Moody sits at YES 91¢ on Polymarket versus YES 90.9¢ on Kalshi, a gap of roughly a tenth of a cent that's effectively zero given normal order-book noise.
Nixon is just as close, priced at YES 10¢ on Polymarket and YES 9.9¢ on Kalshi.
Unlike the last check-in, when Kalshi had drifted a point toward Nixon while Polymarket held steady, both boards have now moved in the same direction, toward Moody. That kind of alignment usually means the move is being driven by something structural (the fundraising gap, the state's lean) rather than platform-specific order flow, and it suggests the ongoing debate standoff hasn't shown up as a real catalyst on either exchange yet.
Florida Senate Race 2026 Polls: Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Both markets have crept further toward Moody rather than settling, which is the opposite of what you'd expect if the debate controversy were actually biting.
The structural case for Moody hasn't changed: Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, she's sitting on roughly double Nixon's campaign cash, and the state's registration gap keeps widening in Republicans' favor.
What's kept Nixon's price from collapsing further is her refusal to let the race go quiet. The Hope Florida Medicaid transfer remains her central attack line, and she's now added Moody's debate refusal to that list, betting that the combination eventually cracks the race open.
Florida's voter registration deadline passed on Oct. 5, and early voting runs Oct. 24-31 ahead of the Nov. 3 election. That window, not anything in the current headlines, is the next real catalyst that could move either board.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $9.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90.9¢) | $10.01 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.9¢) | $910.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
Moody's lead widened on both boards this week, and neither the Hope Florida story nor her refusal to debate Nixon has put a dent in it so far.
The Florida Senate election odds now sit closer to a lock than a toss-up, even with Nixon generating real attention on the trail and in the headlines.
Early voting opens Oct. 24, and that's the real test of whether any of Nixon's momentum off the market translates into a tightening board before Nov. 3.
Florida Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Ashley Moody is a heavy favorite. Both Polymarket and Kalshi now have her above 90%, and polling averages have consistently shown her ahead of Angie Nixon by high single digits.
When is the Florida Senate special election?
The election is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, with the winner serving the remainder of Marco Rubio's term through January 2029.
What do Florida Senate race 2026 polls show in the Moody vs Nixon matchup?
Most recent polling has Moody ahead by roughly 7 to 9 points, though one St. Pete Polls survey in September briefly showed the race essentially tied, an outlier compared to the broader polling average.
Why haven't Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon debated?
Moody has so far declined Nixon's public challenge to a statewide televised debate before mail ballots went out, and as of this writing no debate has been scheduled.
Why did Angie Nixon's price drop on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Both boards moved toward Moody even as Nixon ramped up attacks over the Hope Florida Medicaid controversy and Moody's debate refusal, suggesting traders see those storylines as unlikely to change the outcome.
Is there a difference between the Polymarket and Kalshi odds on this race?
Barely. The two exchanges are within a cent of each other on both candidates, and this update actually saw them move in the same direction for the first time in recent checks.
Can I trade this market before Election Day?
Yes. Both Polymarket and Kalshi let you buy or sell your position at the live market price any time before the contract resolves, so you don't have to hold until Nov. 3 to lock in a result.
