The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner will be named in Oslo this Friday, and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms are sitting atop both Polymarket and Kalshi as the field narrows.
Pope Leo XIV, Elon Musk, and Donald Trump are drawing plenty of search traffic as long shots, even though none of the three cracks the top of the board on either exchange.
Here's a full look at the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds across both platforms, including where the humanitarian favorites stand and how the longer-shot names are priced.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Nobel Peace Prize Winner odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices event contracts from 1¢ to 99¢, with each cent mapping directly to the market's implied probability that an outcome occurs.
A "Yes" contract on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner market settles at $1.00 if the Norwegian Nobel Committee names that recipient on Friday, and $0 if it doesn't.
The market resolves off the official announcement from the Nobel Committee, set for 11:00 a.m. local time in Oslo on October 9.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) (YES 17¢ / NO 84¢)
The Sudanese volunteer aid network remains the favorite on Polymarket, building on the Rafto Prize it picked up in 2025 and a growing reputation for running soup kitchens, medical posts, and evacuations through a brutal civil war.
Traders have treated the group as the safest grassroots pick in a field that otherwise splits its humanitarian vote several ways.
Mykola Kuleba (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢)
Kuleba's case centers on his work rescuing Ukrainian children separated from their families during the war with Russia, a storyline that keeps him in the conversation even as humanitarian organizations dominate the top of the board.
He trails Sudan's ERRs by a wide margin but remains the clearest individual-nominee threat on Polymarket.
Save the Children (YES 9¢ / NO 92¢)
Save the Children ticked up slightly on Polymarket this week, with traders weighing its global reach against the fact that no single-country aid charity has ever taken home the prize.
A win here would be historic for the organization, and that novelty keeps some speculative money in the contract.
Pope Leo XIV (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢)
Pope Leo XIV is one of the more searched-for names in this field, but Polymarket still prices him as a true long shot at 2¢.
A sitting pope has never won the Nobel Peace Prize, and the Vatican's traditional neutrality on open conflicts makes the committee an unlikely match this cycle, even with global attention on the papacy.
Donald Trump (YES 1¢)
Trump's Nobel Peace Prize odds have drifted toward the bottom of the Polymarket board, down from earlier speculation tied to his various diplomatic efforts.
Recent coverage has pointed to a turbulent World Cup stretch and renewed foreign-policy scrutiny as reasons traders have moved off the position heading into Friday.
Elon Musk (YES 1¢)
Musk's contract reflects speculative chatter tied to his role in AI and space policy discussions rather than any formal nomination traders can point to.
At 1¢, the market is treating an Elon Musk win as one of the longest shots on the entire board.
- Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) (YES 6¢ / NO 95¢): a nod to the press-freedom angle after a brutal year for reporters worldwide, though a crowded field of past journalist-advocacy nominees caps the upside here.
- International Court of Justice (ICJ) (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢): the Hague-based court draws support from traders betting the committee leans institutional this cycle, even with no single ruling driving the case.
- Yulia Navalnaya (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢): the widow of Alexei Navalny continues to be floated as a democracy-and-dissent pick, a lane the committee has rewarded in recent years.
- Doctors Without Borders (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢): the organization has never won the Peace Prize despite decades of frontline medical work in conflict zones, and some bettors still see this as the year that changes.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi runs the same 1¢-to-99¢ pricing structure on its event contracts, with the board updating in real time as traders buy and sell both the Yes and No sides.
A Yes contract pays out $1 if the Norwegian Nobel Committee names that recipient the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, and nothing if another name is read out.
Kalshi's market resolves off the same Oslo announcement, scheduled for October 9 at 11:00 a.m. local time.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (YES 16¢ / NO 85¢)
Kalshi's board has the Sudanese network a point behind its Polymarket price, still comfortably the largest share on the board.
The group's volunteer kitchens and evacuation convoys have been cited repeatedly by peace researchers as this year's most likely humanitarian pick after Maria Corina Machado's win last year.
Mykola Kuleba (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢, +1 pt)
Kuleba ticked up a point on Kalshi, matching his Polymarket price almost exactly.
His case rests on child-recovery work rather than a broader institutional campaign, which keeps him a notch behind the two leading humanitarian picks.
Save the Children (YES 9¢ / NO 92¢)
Save the Children sits in third on both exchanges, with the organization's global reach keeping it ahead of the rest of the humanitarian field.
No single-country aid charity has won the prize before, and that novelty keeps speculative money flowing into the contract.
Pope Leo XIV (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢, +1 pt)
Pope Leo XIV picked up a point on Kalshi, a modest bump that still leaves him well back of the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 favorites.
A sitting pope has never won the award, and that history still works against him despite the attention on his papacy this year.
Donald Trump (YES 1¢)
Trump's Kalshi price mirrors his Polymarket number, a shift that tracks with recent coverage noting his odds lengthening after a turbulent World Cup stretch and renewed scrutiny of his foreign policy record.
He remains a perennial storyline in this market, even if traders no longer treat him as a live contender heading into Friday's announcement.
Elon Musk (YES 1¢)
Musk's price is unchanged from Polymarket, with traders treating a win here as close to the longest of long shots on either book.
There's no formal nomination narrative attached to the contract, just general AI and space policy buzz around his name.
- Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢, -3 pts): the press-freedom contract cooled off on Kalshi this week, slipping behind the pure humanitarian-aid names.
- International Court of Justice (ICJ) (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢, -1 pt): a modest pullback, with the institutional pick still priced close to Navalnaya and Doctors Without Borders.
- Yulia Navalnaya (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢): steady on Kalshi, keeping the Russian dissent storyline in the mix.
- Doctors Without Borders (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢, +1 pt): a small bump as traders continue to debate whether this is finally the organization's year.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Both exchanges agree on the shape of the race: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead comfortably, Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children hold the next two spots, and the gap to everyone else is wide.
The clearest divergence sits with Committee to Protect Journalists, priced at YES 6¢ on Polymarket versus just YES 4¢ on Kalshi, a gap that suggests Kalshi's book is a touch more skeptical of the press-freedom narrative resolving this cycle.
Pope Leo XIV, Donald Trump, and Elon Musk all trade within a point of each other across both books, with Trump's YES 1¢ price on both exchanges reflecting how far his Nobel Peace Prize odds have drifted since earlier in the year.
The tight alignment on the long shots, paired with the real gap on CPJ, points to liquidity differences rather than any genuine informational edge on one book over the other.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms have held the top spot in the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market for weeks, a reflection of the group's Rafto Prize win in 2025 and steady praise from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, which has repeatedly flagged the network as a leading contender.
Humanitarian organizations broadly have crowded out individual nominees this cycle, with Save the Children, Doctors Without Borders, and the Committee to Protect Journalists all drawing real money despite none of them ever having won the award.
Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Odds have cooled from earlier speculation, with recent coverage pointing to a turbulent stretch around the World Cup and renewed foreign-policy scrutiny as reasons traders have moved off the position.
Watch for any last-minute leak or committee signal before Friday's 11 a.m. Oslo announcement. The selection process is notoriously secretive, and these boards have been wrong before, including last year when Maria Corina Machado won over a market that had Trump near the top.
How to Trade Nobel Peace Prize Winner on Prediction Markets
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner: Final Thoughts
This is a market where the crowd and the committee rarely move in lockstep, and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms carry that risk as the favorite heading into the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 announcement.
Pope Leo XIV, Elon Musk, and Trump remain the storylines search traffic cares about most, but on both Polymarket and Kalshi, they're priced as what they are: long shots in a humanitarian-heavy field.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner FAQs
How does the Nobel Peace Prize Winner market work on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Traders buy Yes or No contracts priced between 1 cent and 99 cents, with the price reflecting the market's implied probability. A Yes contract pays $1 if that nominee is announced as the winner, and $0 otherwise.
When is the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 winner announced?
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is set to name the winner on Friday, October 9, at 11 a.m. local time in Oslo, with the formal ceremony following on December 10.
Who are the favorites in the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 field?
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead both Polymarket and Kalshi, followed by Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children, with a long tail of humanitarian organizations and public figures rounding out the field.
Where can I find the latest Nobel Peace Prize Odds?
Polymarket and Kalshi both post live, trader-driven Nobel Peace Prize Odds on every nominee, and the tables above reflect the most recent prices on each exchange.
Which Nobel Peace Prize Odds have moved the most this week?
Committee to Protect Journalists has seen the sharpest pullback, sliding on Kalshi while holding steadier on Polymarket, while Mykola Kuleba and Pope Leo XIV both ticked up a point on Kalshi.
Does Pope Leo XIV have real odds to win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Pope Leo XIV is priced at 2 cents on both exchanges, implying roughly a 2% chance, well behind the humanitarian favorites at the top of the board.
Why have Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize odds fallen?
Trump trades at just 1 cent on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with recent coverage tying the drift to a turbulent World Cup stretch and renewed scrutiny of his foreign policy record.
Is Elon Musk a legitimate Nobel Peace Prize contender?
Musk is priced at 1 cent on both exchanges, making him one of the market's longest shots with no formal nomination narrative driving the price.
What's the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi odds for this market?
The two books largely agree on the top of the board, though Committee to Protect Journalists trades notably higher on Polymarket than on Kalshi, a gap that likely reflects liquidity differences rather than new information.
How do I start trading the Nobel Peace Prize Winner market?
Create an account on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund it, and use the platform's search to find the Nobel Peace Prize Winner market, then buy a Yes or No contract on your pick.
