The South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and the SC Governor Race are both drawing real money on Polymarket and Kalshi as Election Day closes in.
Alan Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, Darline Graham and Annie Andrews all have live contracts on both exchanges ahead of the November 3 vote.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms right now.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6¢) | $1666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (94.5¢) | $105.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.9¢) | $1449.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (84¢) | $119.05 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (18¢) | $555.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (83¢) | $120.48 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (18¢) | $555.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the SC Governor Race and the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 resolve the night the race is called against the certified statewide result from the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
SC Governor Race
Alan Wilson (YES 94¢ / NO 6¢, -1 pt)
Wilson ticked down a point but remains an overwhelming favorite to flip a governor's mansion that has stayed Republican for decades, and the market's read lines up with what Johnson vs Wilson polls have shown since the primary runoff.
A Hart Research poll conducted for the Johnson campaign in mid-August had Wilson up just 50-42, and an earlier Public Policy Polling survey put the gap at eight points, both far closer than Polymarket's near-16-to-1 price implies.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 6¢ / NO 94¢)
Johnson is running as the first Democrat with a real shot at the governor's office in roughly a generation, and traders haven't ignored that story, they've just priced South Carolina's deep red lean as the bigger factor.
His campaign's own internal polling shows a tighter race than the market reflects, but no independent survey has yet shown him within single digits of Wilson.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Darline Graham (YES 84¢ / NO 18¢, -2 pts)
Graham gave back two points but is still trading as a comfortable favorite for a fifth term, even though Graham vs Andrews polls have told wildly different stories depending on who's asking.
A late-September Trafalgar Group poll had Graham up just a single point, within the margin of error, a shift sharp enough that Cook Political Report moved its rating on the seat from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Annie Andrews (YES 18¢ / NO 84¢, +2 pts)
Andrews gained two points, and the pediatrician turned candidate is leaning on the same coalition, younger voters and suburban independents, that nearly got her across the line in her 2022 House bid.
An earlier independent poll had actually shown Graham up 13 points, a wider gap than either Trafalgar or Polymarket currently shows, underscoring just how unsettled this read is.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds
Kalshi lists both races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts settle once the South Carolina Secretary of State certifies the winner of the November 3 general election.
SC Governor Race
Alan Wilson (YES 94.5¢ / NO 6.3¢, -0.9 pts)
Kalshi's board matches Polymarket's almost tick for tick here, with Wilson giving back less than a point but still trading as a heavy, heavy favorite.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 6.9¢ / NO 95.4¢, +0.9 pts)
Johnson gained less than a point on Kalshi too, a move that lines up with the same Johnson vs Wilson polls driving sentiment on Polymarket.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Darline Graham (YES 83¢ / NO 18¢, -1 pt)
Graham slipped a point on Kalshi, a slightly smaller pullback than Polymarket showed, but the Senate seat is still priced as South Carolina's closest statewide race this cycle.
Annie Andrews (YES 18¢ / NO 83¢, +1 pt)
Andrews' one-point gain is modest next to the swings the underlying polling has shown, and it tracks with a Senate Leadership Fund ad buy that suggests national Republicans see this race as closer than the headline price lets on.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026
The two boards are in near lockstep on both races. Wilson sits at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 94.5¢ on Kalshi, while Graham is priced between YES 83¢ and YES 84¢ depending on the exchange, a one-cent gap that's well within normal order-book noise.
The real divergence isn't between the exchanges, it's between the exchanges and the public polling. Graham vs Andrews polls have swung from a 13-point Graham lead in one independent survey to a single point in the most recent Trafalgar release, yet both markets have kept Graham locked in the low-to-mid 80s the entire time.
The Governor's race shows a similar pattern. Johnson vs Wilson polls have Wilson's lead sitting anywhere from 8 to 13 points depending on the pollster, but both exchanges price him closer to a 16-to-1 favorite, treating South Carolina's red lean as more decisive than the raw polling margin implies.
Where the two platforms genuinely diverge is contract design, not price: Polymarket derives its No prices from the opposing candidate's Yes quote since its board only shows one side, while Kalshi quotes both sides of every contract directly.
SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The biggest swing on either board this week is Graham's two-point slide on Polymarket, which both platforms tie to the late-September Trafalgar poll and the national money now flowing into a race most strategists had written off as safe.
Wilson's price has barely moved despite a summer of polling that showed single-digit margins, suggesting traders are weighting South Carolina's gubernatorial history, a Democrat hasn't won since the late 1990s, more heavily than any one survey.
The overall shape is two very different races wearing the same ballot: a lopsided Governor market where Wilson is a near-lock favorite despite real movement in the underlying polls, and a Senate race the market still calls comfortable even as independent pollsters increasingly disagree with each other.
Johnson vs Wilson Polls: What the Numbers Show
A Hart Research poll from mid-August had Wilson leading 50-42, while an earlier Public Policy Polling survey showed an eight-point gap, both notably tighter than the roughly 94% implied probability either exchange is currently pricing.
Neither poll has been independently replicated since, which is likely why the markets haven't moved much off them.
Graham vs Andrews Polls: What the Numbers Show
Public polling on the Senate race has been genuinely inconsistent: one independent survey had Graham up 13 points in late August, while the most recent Trafalgar Group poll in late September found the race within a single point.
That kind of spread between polls, not just between polls and the market, is the clearest sign this is the race most likely to move again before November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6¢) | $1666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (94.5¢) | $105.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.9¢) | $1449.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (84¢) | $119.05 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (18¢) | $555.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (83¢) | $120.48 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (18¢) | $555.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is one ballot producing two very different kinds of markets: a near-lock Governor's race where Wilson is priced as an overwhelming favorite despite real tightening in Johnson vs Wilson polls, and a Senate race where Graham vs Andrews polls can't agree on whether this is safe Republican turf or a genuine toss-up.
Watch the Trafalgar and Impact Research numbers for the clearest early signal, since both markets have so far stayed steadier than the polling they're supposedly pricing in.
SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current SC Governor Race odds?
Alan Wilson is trading at 94¢ on Polymarket and 94.5¢ on Kalshi, implying roughly a 94% chance of winning, while Jermaine Johnson sits between 6¢ and 6.9¢ on the two exchanges.
Who is favored to win the South Carolina Senate Race 2026?
Darline Graham is the favorite, priced between 83¢ and 84¢ depending on the exchange, with Annie Andrews trading at 18¢ on both platforms.
What do Johnson vs Wilson polls show heading into November?
A Hart Research poll from mid-August had Wilson leading 50-42, and an earlier Public Policy Polling survey showed an eight-point gap, both tighter than the roughly 94% probability the markets are currently pricing.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
Public polling has disagreed sharply: one independent poll in late August had Graham up 13 points, while a late-September Trafalgar Group poll found the race within a single point.
How does the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race market work?
Polymarket only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No price for each side is derived by pairing it against the opposing candidate's quoted Yes price in this two-way race.
What does the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race market show for the Governor's race too?
Kalshi lists both the Senate and Governor contracts with Yes and No tradable directly on every line, and its board currently matches Polymarket's pricing within a cent or two on each race.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi disagree slightly on the SC Governor Race?
The two boards actually agree closely on price, with Wilson at 94¢ on Polymarket and 94.5¢ on Kalshi. The real difference is contract design: Polymarket derives its No prices while Kalshi quotes both sides directly.
Could Graham vs Andrews polls tighten further before November 3?
It's possible. Independent polls have swung by double digits within a single month, and continued outside spending from national Republicans suggests both parties see room for the race to move again.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
