34 NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends, Stats & Nuggets
Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams QB Mathew Stafford, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Conference Championship Sunday of the NFL Playoffs offers us four legitimate Super Bowl contenders, a host of fascinating players and a whole lot of betting history.
We’ve compiled 35 statistical nuggets, betting trends and things to know for both games (via Bet Labs and other historical sources).
Conference Championship Game Trends
1. Since 2003, underdogs in the Conference Championship are 16-20 against the spread, the only round of the playoffs below .500 ATS in that span. In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), underdogs are 49-60-1 ATS in the Conference Championship.
2. Public sides are 7-3 against the spread so far in the playoffs. The public hasn’t finished over .500 ATS in playoffs since 2016-17.
3. All four quarterbacks in the Conference Championship have shown ATS success in the playoffs through their careers:
Remaining QBs Playoff ATS Records
- Pat Mahomes 7-3 (+$357)
- Jimmy Garoppolo 4-1 (+$270)
- Joe Burrow 2-0 (+$184)
- Matthew Stafford 3-2 (+$72)
4. The straight up winner in the playoffs has also covered the spread in 14 consecutive games. Since 2018, the winners of playoff games are 45-0 straight up and 40-5 against the spread.
5. Here are each of the four Conference Championship participants’ odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and now:
Bengals: +15000 → +800
Chiefs: +440 → +120
Rams: +1400 → +200
49ers: +1400 → +450
6. Entering the Conference Championship, here are your playoff statistical leaders and their odds to lead the category entering the playoffs:
Patrick Mahomes (+225), 782 yards
Josh Allen (+800), 637 yards
Tom Brady (+275), 600 yards
Joe Burrow (+800), 592 yards
Matthew Stafford (+800), 568 yards
Cooper Kupp (+800), 244 yards
Gabriel Davis (+5000), 242 yards
Mike Evans (+1200), 236 yards
Ja’Marr Chase (+1400), 225 yards
Tyreek Hill (+800), 207 yards
Travis Kelce (+800), 204 yards
Elijah Mitchell (+1200), 149 yards
Josh Allen (+4000), 134 yards
Deebo Samuel (N/A), 111 yards
Devin Singletary (+1400), 107 yards
Cam Akers (+2500), 103 yards
Joe Mixon (+800), 102 yards
Patrick Mahomes (N/A), 98 yards
Bengals at Chiefs (-7)
7. Cincinnati Bengals had 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, the same exact odds as the New York Jets. Only two teams in the entire NFL had longer odds to win the Super Bowl than the Bengals: the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans.
At 150-1, the Bengals own the longest preseason Super Bowl odds to make the Conference Championship game since Kurt Warner and the St. Louis Rams in 1999-2000. The Rams eventually went on to win the Super Bowl.
Largest Preseason Odds to Win Super Bowl – Teams to Make Conference Champ. Since 1978
- 2021-22 Bengals 150-1
- 2017-18 Jaguars 100-1
- 1999-00 Rams 150-1
- 1983-84 Seahawks 100-1
- 1979-80 Bucs 250-1
8. Last weekend, the Chiefs were the lone favorite to survive the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Last time underdogs went 3-1 straight up in the Divisional Round was in 2008-09 when the Steelers were the only survivor beating the Chargers.
Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl.
9. Dating back to December 12th, the over has cashed in seven consecutive games for the Chiefs, going over the total by 11.5 PPG. The seven-game over streak is the longest for Kansas City in at least the last 15 years.
10. The under is 79-55-1 (59%) when Bill Vinovich is listed as the head official for any game since 2012 – A $100 bettor would be up $1,948 blindly betting unders with Vinovich, the most profitable official in the NFL.
In 2021, the under was 10-6 with Vinovich and is 61-36-1 (62.9%) in the last five years (including 5-2 to the under in the playoffs). Oh and there’s also the case for penalties…
- Bill Vinovich’s crew: 10.9 penalties per game (fewest)
- Carl Cheffers’ crew: 16.5 penalties per game (most)
11. The over/under for Bengals-Chiefs opened at 50.5 on Sunday night. The total is now listed at 54.5.
The last time an over/under moved four points or more between the opening and closing lines in the playoffs was the 2014 Divisional Round game between Saints & Seahawks. The total opened at 48 and closed at 44 (Seahawks won, 23-15).
12. In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), touchdown or greater favorites in the Conference Championship are 35-6 straight up and 24-16-1 against the spread.
If the Bengals were to knock off the Chiefs, this would be the biggest Conference Championship upset since the Ravens (+8) over the Patriots in 2013.
13. Including the Bengals, only four teams have entered a Conference Championship or a Super Bowl on at least a six-game against the spread winning streak in the last 15 years. The previous three teams covered their next game:
- 2021-22 Bengals at Chiefs (CC)
- 2016-17 Patriots vs. Falcons (SB, W)
- 2016-17 Patriots vs. Steelers (CC, W)
- 2007-08 Chargers at Patriots (CC, W)
14. Over the last two years in the postseason, Travis Kelce has eclipsed his receiving yards prop total in all five of his games.
15. The Chiefs barely survived the Divisional Round of the playoffs by winning in overtime against the Bills. All-time, teams to win an overtime game in the playoffs are 8-17 straight up the following week, including 3-11 straight up and 5-9 against the spread since 2000.
16. Joe Burrow is 11-4 against the spread vs. above .500 teams in his NFL career, the most profitable QB ATS in this spot since he was drafted in 2020.
17. Which Joe Burrow will show up on the road in Kansas City?
In his last three road games, he’s gone under his Pass TD prop in all three games (two total TD).
In Burrow’s five previous road games, he was 5-0 to the over for his Pass TD prop (14 total TD).
18. In the “how is this possible” department: Patrick Mahomes needs 82 more rushing yards to become the Chiefs’ franchise leader in postseason rushing at 387 yards.
19. Nobody beats Patrick Mahomes, especially in Arrowhead.
- Mahomes is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs with his only loss SU to Tom Brady.
- Mahomes has 23 TD and one INT in home playoff games.
- Mahomes has covered six straight home games with an ATS margin of 11.7 PPG. The six-game ATS home win streak is the longest of his career.
- Mahomes is 23-2 SU at home in November or later in his career, winning his last 19 consecutive games by 14.3 PPG. His last loss? The 2019 AFC Championship Game vs. the Patriots.
20. In the AFC Championship, Patrick Mahomes will look to avenge a loss against the Bengals, 34-31 in Week 17.
Mahomes has played six games in his NFL career looking to avenge a loss to the same team twice in the same season. Mahomes is 5-1 straight up in the second game, with his only loss coming to Tom Brady and the Patriots back in 2018-19 (won five straight games since).
49ers at Rams (-3.5)
21. The NFC Championship game usually provides us fireworks. The over is 14-4-2 in the NFC Championship Game since 2002.
22. The 49ers have been listed as underdogs vs. the Rams in all three of their meetings this season, with the first two games going to San Francisco.
If the 49ers advance to the Super Bowl, they will become the first team since the 2004-05 Rams to beat one divisional opponent 3 times in the same season – all listed as the underdog. St. Louis did so that year against the Seahawks.
23. Since 2004, teams meeting for a third time during the same season have favored the road side, with the away team going 15-8-1 against the spread.
24. Betting Jimmy Garoppolo props Sunday? His current streaks:
- Under Passing TD prop in five consecutive games
- Thrown an interception in four consecutive games
25. Entering the NFC Championship, the 49ers have covered the spread in four consecutive games, their longest streak since 2013.
26. The 49ers are the seventh six seed to make the Conference Championship since seeding expanded to 12 teams in 1990.
Among those six previous teams, only two have gone on to win their respective Conference Championship games: the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2010-11 Green Bay Packers — both went on to win the Super Bowl.
27. Kyle Shanahan has dominated Sean McVay in his NFL coaching career.
Shanahan is 7-3 SU and ATS in his career vs. McVay, including winning his last six and covering his last four meetings.
As a tandem, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS vs. Sean McVay.
28. Underdogs are 32-16-2 (66.7%) against the spread when Carl Cheffers is listed as the head official over the last three seasons.
A $100 bettor would be up $1,329 backing underdogs with Cheffers – making him the most profitable official for dogs in that span.
29. The 49ers are playing their fourth straight road game in the NFC Championship this week. Since 2003, when a team plays four straight road games they have gone 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 against the spread.
30. What impact does it have winning a playoff game in the “Frozen Tundra”?
Over the last 15 years, five teams have gone into Lambeau Field and won in the playoffs — all five covered the spread the following week (4-1 SU).
Going even further, since 2003, teams are 31-14-1 ATS (68.9%) after winning on the road in Lambeau Field, the most profitable prior opponent in the NFL.
31. Aaron Rodgers now has four career home losses in the playoffs after losing to the 49ers last week.
All 3 previous teams to beat Aaron Rodgers at home in the playoffs went on to play in the Super Bowl: 2021 Buccaneers, 2014 49ers and 2012 Giants.
32. This season, Cooper Kupp is 15-4 to the over for his receiving yards prop and has an anytime touchdown streak of four games currently active.
Kupp has had a very interesting career arc vs. the 49ers:
- 1st five Games: 117 total rec yds (0-5 to over for rec yds prop)
- Last two Games: 240 total rec yds (2-0 to over for rec yds prop)
33. Speaking of props. Rams tight end Tyler Higbee has eclipsed his receiving yards prop in six straight games entering the Conference Championship.
In Higbee’s last game vs. 49ers twenty days ago, he had 55 yards against San Francisco and went over his receiving yards total.
34. Another week, another opportunity for the “American Underdog,” Jimmy Garoppolo, to continue his legacy. Garoppolo is now 14-5 straight up and 15-4 against the spread in his career as an underdog.
- He is the most profitable QB against the spread as an underdog since his first start in 2016.
- He has the best winning percentage by any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs.