49ers Same Game Parlay: +650 SGP for the Super Bowl
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Deebo Samuel.
The San Francisco 49ers enter as favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 as head coach Kyle Shanahan looks to lift the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in his career.
The 49ers escaped danger in the NFC Championship Game, scoring 27 unanswered and erasing a 17-point halftime deficit to advance to the Super Bowl. They now face the red-hot Chiefs, who once again have defied all odds under Patrick Mahomes and are looking for their third straight win as an underdog.
This is a 49ers-centric parlay and breaks down three of my favorite prop bets you could pair with San Francisco moneyline — if you so choose — on Sunday. Continue reading for my 49ers same game parlay for the Super Bowl.
49ers vs. Chiefs Best Bets: Our Staff's Favorite Picks
49ers Same Game Parlay: +650 SGP for the Super Bowl (bet365)
- Deebo Samuel Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+155)
- Kyle Juszczyk Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Creativity is where Kyle Shanahan is best, and there’s no gadget player better to utilize than Deebo Samuel.
If you look back at San Francisco’s previous playoff games, there’s been an uptick in usage for Samuel in the running game (when healthy). He had three carries against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game and a minimum of three carries in each game of the 2022 postseason.
The year prior? He had no less than seven carries in each of the three games.
The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey as their workhorse running back, but Samuel might as well be regarded as their RB2. I would be shocked to see Elijah Mitchell spell McCaffrey at all — rather, it’ll be Samuel lining up in the backfield.
I’m not expecting double-digit carries for Samuel, but I think it’s safe to say the superstar will likely see 3-5 touches in the backfield. The Chiefs' pass defense is as elite as it comes, but they have plenty of issues stopping the run game (27th in defensive DVOA against the rush).
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Samuel and McCaffrey in the backfield together? Talk about a nightmare for Kansas City.
While this number has continued to rise over the week, it’s been for good reason. Samuel has rushed the ball in every game this season — save for the Packers, when he was injured — and has seen three-plus carries on eight occasions (50% if you don’t count Green Bay).
In those games in which he’s seen at least three carries, Samuel has eclipsed 16.5 yards five times (62.5%). One time he landed on 15.
In the biggest game of the season, you get the ball in the hands of your playmakers. Samuel is the 1B to McCaffrey’s 1A here.
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The dual-threat ability of Samuel makes him my favorite 49er to score — it was the first bet I placed when lines dropped. When it comes to pure volume, Samuel will be second behind McCaffrey. His ability to line up all over the field is just another boost that separates him from the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
Take a look at Samuel’s production since his return from injury against the Eagles on Dec. 3. From that game through Week 17 — he barely played because the game was meaningless — Samuel had eight touchdowns in five games.
There’s a lot to love about Samuel. I already laid out his rushing upside, but he is also one of the most explosive receivers in football. Among all wide receivers with at least 20 targets, Samuel is No. 1 in yards after the catch (8.7).
Then you take a look at red-zone volume, and aside from McCaffrey (-210 to score), no player comes close to Samuel. Despite missing a couple weeks, Samuel finished with 18 red-zone targets. He had nine carries, too.
So not only did he double Brandon Aiyuk’s red-zone targets (nine) and finish five ahead of George Kittle (13), but he had nine rushes on top of that.
If you’re going to take a 49er to find the end zone and don’t want to take a swing on a long shot, there’s no better option than Samuel at +155.
The unsung hero of this San Francisco offense, Kyle Juszczyk hauled in a season-high 33 receiving yards in the NFC Championship. Primarily used to pave the way for McCaffrey, Juszczyk has actually seen an uptick in usage in the receiving game of late.
In San Francisco's last five games, Juszczyk has gone over this 4.5 number all but once (80%). He has seen two-plus targets in four of those games and is a more-than-capable receiver in this offense.
Last year against Kansas City, Juszczyk finished with 34 receiving yards. In the Super Bowl back in 2019 — I know we’re stretching back some time — he had 39 receiving yards.
I’m expecting the creative genius of Shanahan to show against a Chiefs defense that has been incredibly hard to beat through the air this season. A player like Juszczyk often goes unnoticed, and a quick dump down — for a receiver with great hands, mind you — is well in the cards.
This number has been bet up from 0.5 on open and I’d expect it to continue to rise. There’s so many weapons in this 49ers offense that Juszczyk is a perfect player to take a stab at.
BONUS: Since this is a San Francisco 49ers-centric same-game parlay, you can very well throw in the 49ers moneyline (-130) to boost this over +1000.
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