What Aaron Rodgers Injury Means for Jets, Props, Bettors
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers (No. 8).
The New York Jets are holding their collective breaths way too early in the 2023 NFL season.
New quarterback Aaron Rodgers was slow to get up and had to leave the Jets' Monday Night Football game vs the Bills during New York's first possession. He was replaced by Zach Wilson, as the Jets' first drive ended with a punt, and did not return to the game.
Initial reporting was that Rodgers suffered an ankle injury after the quarterback left the Jets sideline on a cart.
Rodgers exited with an apparent ankle injury and is questionable to return 🙏 pic.twitter.com/mCTudWAfDX
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 12, 2023
X-rays on Rodgers' ankle were negative, but Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported after the game that the Jets believe it’s an Achilles injury. Rodgers is scheduled to have an MRI Tuesday.
What would Rodgers' absence — and Wilson serving as his replacement — mean for the Jets and for bettors? According to Action Network head of predictive analytics Sean Koerner, the difference between Rodgers and Wilson is 5.5 to 6 points on the spread in a vacuum. And in a game where the Jets might need to throw more, that number is closer to 6 to 6.5 points, according to Koerner. The difference on the total from Rodgers to Wilson is about four points.
In the futures market, the Jets opened the game at 18-1 to win the Super Bowl, according to FanDuel. After the game, they settled at 28-1.
As for prop bets, we'll have to wait and see, at least for now. Here's what happens to prop bets when a player doesn't play:
There are three primary ways that books handle this situation:
Every sportsbook will cancel your bet if the player is inactive per the league or team's official injury report. That's the case if you bet the over or under.
Some books will honor the bet if the player is active, even if he or she doesn't play a single second.
Other books require the player to at least appear in the game — whether it's a snap, minute, inning, etc. — for the bet to stand, whether it's an over or under.
Rodgers did take the field, and he threw a pass. However, sportsbooks have been known in the past to refund player props in high-profile injuries in situations like this.
DraftKings, per Action Network’s Darren Rovell, said they would be refund all prop bets on Rodgers, including a boost that involved Rodgers and Bills quarterback Josh Allen combining for three touchdowns. DraftKings will also refund all same-game parlays and regular parlays that had Rodgers in as a leg.
Rovell also notes that BetMGM will be refunding all Aaron Rodgers player props for MNF due to tonight's injury. Customers will be refunded in the form of Bonus Bets within 24 hours, on single wagers only. Under wagers will remain as is and result as a winning bet.
The following Rodgers markets will be refunded:
- First TD Scorer
- Anytime TD Scorer
- Over on passing yards/completions/attempts
- Over on rushing yards
- Overs on Passing TDs & Interceptions
FanDuel announced it would not be refunding any bets on Rodgers props:
Due to regulatory requirements, all bets will be settled in accordance with our house rules. Unfortunately, we will not be offering a bad beat on this occasion.
— FanDuel Customer Support (@FanDuel_Support) September 12, 2023
Underdog Fantasy offered a promo to start the season that included Rodgers more than/less than 0.5 yards as one of its plays. Rodgers played four snaps and did not gain a single yard, but an Underdog employee said on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the company will grade Rodgers' total as a win.
PrizePicks refunded all Rodgers selections — part of a season long policy on refunding if players get injured.
The Bills closed as 2-point favorites (-2) vs the Jets. The total closed at over/under 44.5 points scored.