Why Andrew Whitworth, Trent Williams Are Worth More to 49ers-Rams Odds Than Home Field In NFC Championship
Getty Images. Pictured: Rams LT Andrew Whitworth, 49ers LT Trent Williams
- How important are Andrew Whitworth and Trent Williams when it comes to Rams-49ers odds for the NFC Championship?
- It turns out more important than the value of the Rams' home-field advantage, at least according to our Director of Predictive Analytics.
- With the Rams a 3.5-point favorite, find out how Whitworth and Williams could impact our expert's projected spread for this NFL playoff showdown.
There's been a lot of discussion about how much home-field advantage the Rams really have given the expected number of 49ers fans at SoFi Stadium for the NFC Championship. But with home-field advantage pretty much vanishing in the NFL, I try to make sure it never impacts my reasoning for or against a bet.
At least for this particular NFL playoff showdown, the availability of the Rams' and 49ers' left tackles is more important than home-field advantage.
If Rams LT Andrew Whitworth (probable) is able to return and 49ers LT Trent Williams is ruled out (questionable) for Sunday, my projected spread of Rams -3 would swing one full point. That's why I place much more emphasis on how much players are worth to the spread, since it can give you a bigger betting edge than home-field advantage, which is worth closer to 0.5-1.5 in today's NFL.
With that in mind, I've outlined my player values for all four teams playing for a Super Bowl bid this Championship Sunday.
Note: Each player's value is relative to their worth to their team, the depth behind them, and other context-rich situations.
Spread Values By Team
Not every player is worth anything to the spread, but Sean rates the relative value of each team's starters by using the following color scale.
Bengals-Chiefs Values
49ers-Rams Values
How To Bet On the NFL Playoffs
If you're new to betting, the first thing you need to know is that there's a favorite and an underdog in every matchup. You can bet on either team to win outright by betting on the moneyline — or you can bet on either to "cover" by betting on the spread.
We've outlined relevant definitions below, but you can find more information in our Sports Betting Education 101 series.
- How do you tell which team is the favorite? The favorite is expected to win. They'll have a minus sign ("-") next to their odds.
- How do you tell which team is the underdog? The underdog is expected to lose. They'll have a plus sign ("+") next to their odds.
- What is a moneyline? A bet based solely on which team will win the game.
- What is a point spread? A bet on the margin of victory.
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