Week 3 of the NFL season begins with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Green Bay Packers on Sept. 24. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. The game will stream live on Prime Video.
Our player props for Thursday Night Football tonight are targeting Bijan Robinson, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden and Kaleb Johnson.
Let's dive into our Falcons vs Packers player props for Thursday night.
Falcons vs Packers Player Props
- Kaleb Johnson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Kaleb Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+190, FanDuel)
- Matthew Golden Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115, bet365)
- Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+200, FanDuel)
- Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-125, bet365)
Falcons vs Packers Prop Picks, Preview
Kaleb Johnson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel) | Anytime Touchdown (+190, FanDuel)
After two weeks, it looks like the great MarShawn Lloyd experiment has failed.
Some fantasy drafters, myself included, thought he might get a lot of work with Josh Jacobs sidelined, but it hasn’t worked out. Since arriving in Green Bay, Kaleb Johnson has been the far superior running back compared to Lloyd.
Johnson only rushed for 32 yards on his eight carries against the Jets, but he was more effective than Lloyd. Both players fumbled, giving Chris Brooks time on the field, but with the game on the line in overtime, it was Johnson the Packers trusted with early down work.
Johnson also passed the eye test, looking more of a physical test for defenders, so I’m expecting to see an uptick of work for the former Steeler.
Johnson and Lloyd are around the same odds to score, but with Johnson getting the early downs work and the hard yards, he’s the better option. The odds here are simply too big for the opportunity.
Pick: Kaleb Johnson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel) | Kaleb Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+190, FanDuel)
Matthew Golden Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After a mini-breakout in Week 1, we saw Matthew Golden’s targets halve from 12 to six — but he still racked up 58 yards.
Golden really struggled in his rookie season, but he looks like a totally different player, and someone Jordan Love trusts.
While Golden had just 58 yards last week — down from 95 against the Vikings — it’s worth factoring in that there was one target on that he really should have hauled in. Then consider two pass interference penalties called on defensive backs trying to guard him. If he made any of those three catches, his stat line instantly looks way better.
Golden looks like a menace, and I’m bullish on him covering this.
Pick: Matthew Golden Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Bet365)
Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Like Goldem, we saw Tucker Kraft’s targets halve as well — from six to three — across the first two games of the season.
However, we really don’t need to be concerned, and the South Dakota State product is huge value to score at these odds. There looks to be an uptick in work, with Kraft running routes on 78% of dropbacks, compared to 48% in Week 1.
This is also a Falcons defense that has already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season. Pat Freiermuth scored in the opening week and Darren Waller had two on Sunday.
While Tucker hasn’t scored yet this season, we have to remember that last season he’d scored six TDs in eight games before injury and was well on his way to a monster year.
Pick: Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+200, FanDuel)
Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
The Falcons are without question one of the worst teams in the NFL right now, but they’ll be hoping that changes with Michael Penix Jr. returning under center.
Bijan Robinson had eight receptions in Week 1 but just three in Week 2. His line for TNF is 4.5, and that’s an insta-smash in my book.
Robinson's decrease in receptions doesn't bother me because he wasn't really a factor in the Falcons' blowout loss to the Panthers — with the game out of hand, he only had four touches in the second half. With this game projected to be much, we should see a lot more of the former Texas star.
Then consider Penix’s injury — coming back from an ACL injury, it seems unlikely he’d want to risk taking hits so I expect an increase in dump-offs to the running back.
With Robinson expected to play much more and the health of Penix in question, I have to hit the Over on receptions.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-125, bet365)
Falcons vs Packers Prop Bets
- Kaleb Johnson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Kaleb Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+190, FanDuel)
- Matthew Golden Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Bet365)
- Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+200, FanDuel)
- Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-125, bet365)
