Just two weeks into the new NFL season, there are eight 0-2 teams staring deep into the abyss of a lost season. Each week, we’re going to zoom out and look at the whole chessboard.
This week, I am ranking the 0-2 teams from least to most likely to make the playoffs — and which ones are most bettable.
Since 1990, 38-of-298 0-2 teams (12.8%) have rebounded to make the postseason — about 1-in-8. Since the 2020 playoff expansion to 14 teams, that number has jumped to 15.7%, or roughly 1-in-6.5.
Last year, the Texans, Bears, and Panthers all started 0-2 and made it. The year before, it was the Ravens, Broncos, and Rams. The Texans did it in 2023 too when we grabbed them at 25-1, and the 2022 Bengals rebounded from 0-2 all the way to the Super Bowl.
Historically, there's around a 75% chance at least one of these eight winless teams makes the postseason and about 1-in-3 that multiple survive.
Let's figure out who it is going to be this year.
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NFL 0-2 Teams — Rankings & Tiers
Tier V — Sorry, But It’s Already Over
8. Miami Dolphins: 1% Division, 5% Playoffs (DK Predict)
We had fun with our Malik Willis escalator in Week 1, but we learned the hard way betting Miami against San Francisco in Week 2.
The 49ers scored a touchdown on their first five possessions, racking up 342 yards on 34 plays — a staggering 10.1 yards per play. Almost as worrying, Miami settled for three field-goal attempts in the first half knowing the task its defense was up against. Jeff Hafley's coaching staff already looks totally outmatched.
The Dolphins have the worst roster in the league. I rank them 31st on offense and 32nd on defense.
Outside of De'Von Achane, Jordyn Brooks, Patrick Paul, and Aaron Brewer, there is a severe lack of talent up and down the roster. They are openly tanking.
The surest path to the playoffs is always the division, but the Jets look significantly improved, and Miami is already chasing Buffalo and New England.
As if they needed any help losing, the Dolphins started the season against the Raiders and Niners and now face the Chiefs, Vikings, and Bengals (all 2-0 sides).
Verdict: It's over — and I'm not sure it ever even started. Caesars has the Dolphins priced at 175-1 to win the AFC East (implied 0.6%), which is somehow still double FTN's 0.3% projection.
7. Tennessee Titans: 3% Division, 8% Playoffs (DK Predict)
The Titans actually held a fourth-quarter lead against the Eagles but let Jalen Hurts drive right down the field for the game-winning score.
Tennessee wanted to turn Hurts into a traditional pocket quarterback, and he ultimately beat them doing exactly that.
The Titans did hold a 42% to 39% success rate advantage, and Cam Ward didn't look terrible against a solid defense, but the problem remains: the Titans still didn't win.
Now the Titans are coming off 36 minutes on the field defensively on a blazing hot field, and they already blew one of their best chances for a win at home against the Jets.
The case against Tennessee is simple: it ranks bottom five at quarterback, offensive line, and coaching — and five is kind.
The AFC South is a combined 1-7 with the lone win coming against the Browns, so the Titans are technically only a game back and can avoid an 0-3 start by beating a Giants team without Jaxson Dart. But after that, the Titans face Baltimore and Houston.
Verdict: The Titans will be 1-4 at best, and likely 0-5. I cannot buy stock when the core of the team is totally rotten.
6. Washington Commanders: 3% Division, 12% Playoffs (DK Predict)
Washington was one play away from forcing overtime against the Eagles, and one play away from tying the Cowboys at halftime. The Commanders actually outgained Dallas by 57 yards.
Unfortunately, its entire season swung on those two plays.
The second of those plays came up short and turned into yet another Jayden Daniels injury, which now leaves him missing for an unknown amount of time with a re-dislocated left elbow. Right or wrong, that decision to go for it on the goal line might end up costing Dan Quinn his job.
We talked about Washington's brutal opening schedule before the season. The Commanders are already 0-2 in the division and now face this gauntlet with a backup QB: Seahawks, Colts (in London), the Giants after no travel rest, at the 49ers, Eagles, and the Rams.
So when does Daniels return? If he misses two games, he has to rejoin the team post-London. If three, why not just take one more game off and add three additional weeks of rest with the bye. But if it's four, the team is likely 1-5 or 0-6, so why rush him back at all?
Marcus Mariota is one of the better backups in the NFL, but Daniels and Laremy Tunsil are Washington's two best players. The Commanders already had a bottom-five defense, and without those two, they also have a bottom-five offense.
Verdict: This is a worst-case scenario for the Commanders. I bet their preseason under and alts, and I'm just along for the ride now.
Tier IV — The Worst Playoff Bet on the Board
5. Los Angeles Chargers: 7% Division, 21% Playoffs (DK Predict)
The Chargers have arguably been the story of the season thus far, with twin 26-14 losses against the softest part of their schedule.
Los Angeles is only the second team ever to lose back-to-back home games by double digits to sub-.200 teams. The only other team to do that? The 1926 Racine Tornadoes, who literally dissolved as a franchise the very next game. Fun fact: their QB was Mitt Romney Sr.
The Chargers defense is sorely missing Jesse Minter, allowing the Cardinals and Raiders to march up and down the field, and the offense is totally broken. L.A. fumbled six times on Sunday — three by Justin Herbert alone — and recovered five, or this would have looked even worse.
Nothing is easy for Mike McDaniel's offense, and Herbert looks very uncomfortable. The offensive line is atrocious on the interior, and Joe Alt is struggling. The Chargers posted the worst rush EPA in the league in Week 2 despite having the third-highest run rate.
Outside of Ladd McConkey (who is already hurt), the Chargers have zero weapons. Both tight ends they signed in free agency are on IR, meaning zero-blocking Oronde Gadsden Jr. is the sole TE remaining.
We bet the Chargers to miss the playoffs last week at -120 in this weekly column. That was at implied 55%, and they are now an 81% favorite to miss.
FTN projects them for 5.8 wins and a 90% chance to miss.
Verdict: It's already over for the Chargers, and you missed your chance to get the Miss Playoffs ticket if you didn't tail last week.
Tier III — Imagination Station
4. Atlanta Falcons: 8% Division, 15% Playoffs (DK Predict)
There is nothing secretly redeeming to tell you about the Falcons' losses to the Steelers and Panthers.
Atlanta has exactly zero plays in the red zone so far this season. Through two games, the Falcons have posted a -53 EPA on offense — the worst mark through two weeks since the 2006 Raiders team that averaged 10.5 PPG, went 2-14, and then drafted JaMarcus Russell.
There is no real shame in losing games with your third- and fourth-string quarterbacks (Cooper Rush and Jack Strand).
The hope for Atlanta is effectively throwing those games out and imagining that Michael Penix Jr. has the goods when he returns. You can envision the elite weapons and the offensive line dominating in a weak NFC South.
The problem is all of that hope is already priced in at +800. This is still a bottom-five roster, and I have zero faith in the coaching staff.
Plus the Falcons' upcoming schedule is brutal: at Green Bay, at New Orleans, and Baltimore (all in primetime), followed by Chicago, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Kansas City.
Verdict: I thought this might be a sneaky long-shot play, but any potential upside is already baked into the odds. No thanks.
Tier II — Most Likely Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Best Bet
3. Houston Texans: 41% Division, 54% Playoffs (DK Predict)
I remain mostly unbothered by Houston being.
The Texans suffered two coin-flip losses to elite quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Joe Burrow). A dropped interception cost them the Buffalo game, and the Texans actually outgained Cincinnati by 100 yards with a higher success rate and 10 more first downs. They just went 0-for-4 in the red zone, thanks in part to some self-inflicted DeMeco Ryans wounds.
Houston's defense remains outstanding. It held a healthy Bengals offense to just 20 points and their worst success rate in three seasons.
The problem is the offense.
Nico Collins is the only truly elite weapon they have, and he is already dealing with injuries, like usual. Without him, this is a bottom-five offense. The offensive line is poor, and the run game was successful on just 1-of-15 plays against Cincinnati.
Still, the Texans have a very winnable remaining schedule. I expect them to be favored in every game until Christmas Eve. Houston should still win plenty of games.
The issue is that the betting markets haven't budged. FTN puts the Texans at 41% for the division and 54% for the playoffs, leaving no real futures value on the board.
Verdict: I still believe in this team and will likely look to invest in Houston futures again later, but there is no real value right now, especially with Nico Collins banged up.
Tier I — The Two 0-2 Bets to Make Right Now
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26% Division, 28% Playoffs (DK Predict)
Buccaneers Island is taking on water.
Tampa suffered an ugly 23-19 loss to the Browns in a hurricane, settling for field goals all game and struggling to move the ball.
Baker Mayfield has been dreadful, throwing everything behind the line of scrimmage in Week 1, then chucking 12.5 aDOT prayers in Week 2.
Zac Robinson’s offense has no rhythm right now, the offensive line looks far worse than expected, and Todd Bowles' defense is generating zero pass rush. Tampa Bay is currently on an 11-game ATS losing streak somehow.
The loss to Cleveland was a big blow as the surest win on the schedule and a double whammy with the Saints unexpectedly winning in Baltimore. That combination is around a 1.5-win projection swing that evaporated half of my expected divisional margin for error for Tampa.
Still, this is the NFC South.
The Saints are a game up now with an incredibly cushy upcoming schedule, so they're the favorites and could pull out ahead if the Bucs continue to struggle.
But the Falcons stink and the Panthers need to show some offense against a real defense — and the Bucs still get to play six games against those divisional opponents.
FTN has Tampa Bay favored to win the division at 36%. I'd price it even higher, closer to a coin flip, yet the Bucs are just 23% on Kalshi. That is great value for a team that is only one game back, whether you're already invested or coming in fresh.
Verdict: I'm tripling down and going down with the pirate ship. Give me the Bucs to win the division at 23%.
1. Indianapolis Colts: 17% Division, 28% Playoffs (DK Predict)
If you're surprised by this choice at the top of the ranks, know that I am too. But betting is about getting the best of the number, and the number here is in our favor.
The Colts looked pretty good on Sunday Night Football, going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and moving the ball all game.
Yes, the Colts gave up 523 yards and now hold the NFL record for the most yards allowed through the first two games of a season (1,029). The defense is bad, and they have the worst linebackers in the league.
But losing to the Ravens and Chiefs is nothing to be ashamed of. That was the toughest stretch of their entire season.
Now the Colts face the Texans (potentially without Nico Collins), the Commanders (without Jayden Daniels), the Steelers, and the Titans.
Those are winnable games, and as Indianapolis showed against Kansas City on Sunday night, any game on its schedule is winnable.
Head coach Shane Steichen consistently has this team ready to play — the Colts are top three in the NFL in points, yards, and EPA on their first drive. That lets Indianapolis stay on the front foot, setting up the elite run-blocking offensive line and Jonathan Taylor to do their thing.
This is all about the numbers.
FTN has the Colts at 22% to win the division and 37% to make the playoffs. DK Predict and Polymarket are offering them at 21% to make the playoffs — about the same as those division odds, without the upside of a wil-card spot in an AFC where I have my doubts about the Patriots, Broncos, and Chargers. That is a huge edge.
Verdict: 21% to make the playoffs is a mispriced number. The value is firmly on the Colts.
Brandon's Futures Placed in This Article
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win NFC South: 23% (Kalshi)
- Indianapolis Colts to Make Playoffs: 21% (Polymarket)
