Bengals vs Titans Pick, Odds, NFL Week 4 Prediction

We open the main slate of NFL Week 4 by making a Bengals vs. Titans pick.

Two seasons ago, the Bengals and Titans met in the playoffs. Now, both need a victory to avoid a 1-3 start. The good news is the AFC standings are compact and the winner will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.

The story in this game – and going forward – will be Joe Burrow and his calf. Let's break down the matchup and Bengals vs. Titans odds.

The calendar may say 2023, but Tennessee is living in the 1990s, or at least the early 2000s. The Titans are bottom three in passing yards, attempts and touchdowns.

Sticking to who they are, the Titans have used the run game to set up the pass. Unfortunately, Derrick Henry and the ground game aren't as effective as they used to be.

Henry is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and the problem has been both before and after contact, per Pro Football Reference. This year, Henry is averaging 1.6 yards both before and after contact, both down more than half a yard from last year. 

Without the run game to pull defenses, the passing game has crumbled. Ryan Tannehill is averaging just 6.6 yards per pass and is completing under 60% of his throws with just one touchdown.

The defense follows the same strategy as the offense — focusing on the run and hoping the secondary can defend the pass. Tennessee ranks first in yards per rush allowed, but 26th in net yards per pass allowed.

Unfortunately, in today’s NFL, that leads to a team that ranks 24th in yards per drive allowed and 21st in points per drive allowed.

Turning to the Bengals, no unit has fallen shorter of expectations than Cincinnati’s offense. There is no questioning the talent, but it's clear Joe Burrow's calf injury is more severe than anticipated. That has led to a more conservative offense and a steep drop-off in Burrow’s play.

Burrow’s completed air yards per attempt is down to a measly 1.9 yards, less than half of any of his other seasons, per Pro Football Reference. His on-target percentage is even more worrisome. In the past two seasons, around 80% of his throws were on target. This year, that number is just 65.2%.

The good news for the Bengals offense is the reignition of Ja’Marr Chase, who had 141 yards against the Rams, with 60 coming after the catch.

Defensively, the Bengals also looked reinvigorated on Monday night. Their front — specifically, Trey Hendrickson — was an absolute menace — games against strong rushing attacks like the Browns and Ravens have given Cincinnati’s rush defense a bad name.

We will see if the Bengals can continue their rebound against the Titans' weaker front.

The Titans offense looked functional in one game (Week 2 against the Chargers). The difference between that game and the rest was that Tannehill played out of his mind. PFF graded his performance a 92.5, and he averaged 10.3 yards per attempt while completing 83.3% of his passes. 

As for the Bengals, if someone said the first three weeks would be their worst offensively, I wouldn’t be surprised.

They have yet to have multiple receiving options click at the same time. Beyond that, Burrow should continue to adapt to this quick-throw offense more and more each week.