Bills v. Saints Spread Seeing One-Sided Action on Thanksgiving Day

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Joshua Bessex

Bills vs. Saints Odds

Bills Odds -6.5
Saints Odds +6.5
Bills Moneyline -250
Saints Moneyline +200
Over/Under 45.5
Date Thursday, Nov. 25
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel CBS

Odds are according to PointsBet as of Thursday.

The Buffalo Bills will look to get back on track when they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Thanksgiving Day.

The advanced analytics seem to be failing us regarding the Bills. Buffalo was ranked No. 1 in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA for weeks — and even after they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 9-6.

Up until last week, with the seventh-best win percentage in football, the Bills were still ranked No. 1. After an embarrassing loss to the Colts, though, the Bills finally dropped down to No. 5 overall.

Their defense is still solid — and still ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA — but Josh Allen has looked like a complete fraud as of late. He’s averaging just over two turnovers per game over his last three weeks and has consistently made horrible reads.

The Bills are now second in the AFC East behind the New England Patriots and barely clinging onto the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They’re just a half-game up on the Colts entering play this week.

And yet, the public absolutely loves the Bills spread in this one.

Buffalo’s spread at 6 or 6.5 — depending on the sportsbook — has over 90% of the money at several major books.

At FanDuel, 92% of the total money is on the Bills to cover by 6.5 points. Meanwhile, at BetMGM, about 90% of the total money is on the Bills to win by at least 6.5 points.

There is a chance the market is undervaluing the Bills after a bad few weeks. The advanced metrics still, of course, love their defense and Josh Allen is probably due for some form of positive regression.

To be fair, the Saints have been terrible as of late. Since Jameis Winston went down with a season-ending injury, they’ve lost three straight: a home game against a terrible Atlanta Falcons team, another on the road against a good Tennessee Titans team and away at a streaking Philadelphia Eagles team.

The line had opened at Bills -4.5 and has moved all the way to -6.5 as a result of the public action.

If you’re inclined to tail metrics like that, the Bills spread is the way to go this Thanksgiving Day.

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