The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans face off in the NFL Week 2 edition of Monday Night Football on Sept. 15. Kickoff for MNF is set for 7 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Bucs vs Texans will be broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
The Texans are 2.5-point favorites on the spread over the Buccaneers (Texans -2.5) with the game total set at 42.5. The Texans are -150 moneyline favorites; the Bucs are +125 underdogs.
Let’s get into our Buccaneers vs Texans predictions for Monday Night Football, which include picks against the spread, the game total and player prop.
Buccaneers vs Texans Predictions
- Buccaneers vs Texans Spread Prediction: Texans -2.5 (-108)
- Buccaneers vs Texans Over/Under Pick: Over 42.5 (-110)
- Buccaneers vs Texans Player Props: Xavier Hutchinson Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Buccaneers vs Texans Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Buccaneers vs Texans Spread
The Texans had a poor offensive performance against the Rams to open the season, but this is a good spot for a potential bounce back.
Nick Caley, the new offensive coordinator in Houston, has brought the league’s heaviest dose of 11 personnel to town (3-WR, 1 TE, 1 RB). His offense was stagnant in his debut, but I expect him to make adjustments.
When C.J. Stroud threw the ball on play-action passes, he averaged nearly 16 yards per attempt on those three occasions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a much more diverse attack tonight, which will undoubtedly give this offense a boost.
It is not a given the Texans’ offense will turn things around, but their defense can be relied upon. Baker Mayfield is still without left tackle Tristen Wirfs and it was an apparent downgrade in protection.
The Tampa Bay quarterback was pressured on more than 40% of his pass attempts and posted a turnover-worthy throw rate above 10%. This all came against a Falcons defense hardly known for creating havoc on opposing quarterbacks.
Bucs running back Bucky Irving averaged just 2.6 yards per attempt in Week 1 as the ground game suffered as well. This is going to create long down-and-distance situations against a Houston pass rush that ranked eighth in pressure rate in Week 1, and boasted an 8% sack rate in 2024, which was good for third in the NFL.
58.6% of 0-1 teams covered the number when facing a 1-0 team in Week 2 from 2021 through 2024. I like the chances of Houston to even its record on Monday Night Football.
Pick: Texans -2.5 (-108)
Buccaneers vs Texans Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
Last week, I correctly predicted that Texans-Rams would be the lowest scoring game on the Sunday slate. Much of that was a product of the Texans' terrible offensive line, which our own Brandon Anderson ranked last (in a tier of their own) in his preseason offensive line rankings.
However, tonight the Texans have a much better matchup on paper against the Bucs.
Tampa’s defensive line is built to stop the run, not the pass, which should give C.J. Stroud much more time to operate. While I’m not expecting the Texans to drop 30 points, they should be much better on offense than they looked in Week 1.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have a tough task against the Texans' elite defense, but the Bucs have the talent to succeed anyway, including a top-five offensive line and a rookie receiver in Emeka Egbuka who looks like a future star.
While Tampa might have a hard time sustaining drives, and Baker Mayfield will surely make his share of mistakes, their big-play potential should lead to them keeping pace on the scoreboard.
More importantly, 42.5 is the kind of total we typically only see when two bad QBs take the field.
Mayfield and Stroud, for all their faults, are at least average-to-good NFL starters. That’s enough for me when the number is this low.
Pick: Over 42.5 (-110)
Buccaneers vs Texans Player Props
By Brit Devine
This bet cashed last week, and I am going right back to it with Christian Kirk ruled out.
Xavier Hutchinson ran a route on 65% of Houston's pass plays in Week 1, which was second on the team. He also played 39 snaps, which was second most on the team as well from the receiving group.
The Texans lost TE Cade Stover, who was heavily involved in Week 1 until an injury took him out, which should just further condense the targets in this game.
Tampa allowed the fifth-highest percentage of outside targets in Week 1, along with the third highest last season, and Hutchinson was mainly used as an outside WR in Week 1.
One catch could be all it takes, and if he can secure a second, it's nearly a lock given that he is a medium and downfield target for the offense.
I'm hitting the ladder as well — the matchup is too good.
Pick: Xavier Hutchinson Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110); 40+ Yards (+533)
