Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Predictions, Picks, Odds for Thursday Night Football

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NFL Week 5 is upon us, and serving as the ribbon-cutter, we have a Thursday Night matchup between two stumbling NFC franchises: the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The home team comes off a win over Houston that puts them at 2-2, while Tampa Bay has yet to end their losing streak. The Cowboys' favoritism on Polymarket is understandable, but a few details are worth keeping in mind when setting up your trading strategy for this Thursday Night Football.

Let's get into my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction and my NFL predictions for Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers enter as 7.5-point underdogs, which may seem fairly conservative considering they are playing on the road and are 0–4 on the season. On the other hand, there is Dallas, which has been especially effective at covering the spread this season.

With Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb generating lethal passing numbers at home, Tampa Bay’s secondary faces an uphill battle. The Buccaneers rank near the bottom of the NFL in points allowed per game, and with significant injuries mounting in their defense, slowing down Dallas seems unlikely.

When the Cowboys take early control against struggling opponents, they tend to push the pace without easing off in the fourth quarter, opening up double-digit leads with ease.

Going with Dallas at -9.5 at 47 cents a share seems like an excellent deal.

The Moneyline

Across the series, Dallas holds a commanding 17–6 advantage over Tampa Bay, including playoff matchups. Besides, the Cowboys have claimed victory in their last two meetings. Their most recent clash occurred late in the 2024 campaign, with backup quarterback Cooper Rush starting for the Cowboys.

Going with Dallas on the Moneyline might sound boring, but they really are the more solid squad.

Totals Market

A crucial stat is that Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense and last in yards allowed per play. Tampa Bay’s numbers are stronger, but they still rank in the bottom half across most defensive metrics.

On offense, the Cowboys are averaging 30.5 points, tied with San Francisco for the second-most in the NFL.

This could translate into a somewhat chaotic, high-scoring affair. In the Totals market, an interesting option in terms of price and odds is targeting Over 49.5 points at 45 cents a share.

My Pick: Dallas at -9.5 and Over 49.5 on Totals. 

NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

As mentioned above, the Cowboys arrive following a momentum-building victory over Houston. Prescott leads an explosive aerial attack with 1,065 passing yards, headlined by Lamb, who is fresh off a career-high 17-reception performance for 189 yards and a game-winning score.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay is spiraling on a four-game skid to open the season. Baker Mayfield has struggled behind a leaky pass protection unit, managing just 615 passing yards and 2 touchdowns.

While rookie running back Bucky Irving has provided a spark on the ground (241 rushing yards), the Buccaneers’ pass defense ranks among the league's worst, giving up 30.5 points per game.  To make matters worse, key starter injuries in their secondary limit their ability to double-cover Lamb.

Expect the Cowboys to establish control early in the game, forcing Tampa Bay into a high-volume passing script where Dallas's pass rush can close out the night. With this in mind, trading the 1st Half spread can be an interesting angle. On Polymarket, Dallas at -6.5 trades at 49 cents and seems like a solid position considering their tendency to inflict damage early in the game.

A player who deserves your attention is Javonte Williams, who has racked up 6 touchdowns so far this season. Thursday's game presents an excellent opportunity for him to display his talent. What's interesting is that Yes shares on his Anytime Touchdown market trade at 64 cents, a decent price considering how effective he has been so far.

Also, keep an eye on Prescott to cover Over 249.5 Passing Yards.

Pick: Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown – 1st Half Dallas at -6.5 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS is scheduled for THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8 at 8.15 p.m. ET, live from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game is live on Amazon Prime Video.