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One month into the NFL season, things are beginning to take shape. The great teams are separating themselves, and the terrible teams are already looking toward the draft.
But there is a massive glut of teams stuck somewhere in the middle.
Right now, exactly 12 teams sit at 2-2 — that is three-eighths of the entire league! These are the teams we are most confused about, but they are also the ones that still hold futures value — in either direction.
A 2-2 start is not a death knell. Just last year, the Patriots and Broncos started 2-2 and eventually met in the AFC Championship Game.
In fact, seven 2-2 teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl, including the 2007 Giants, plus the 2003, 2014, and 2018 Patriots this century.
Each week, we zoom out to look at the whole chessboard. How do we tell tomorrow's story today and get ahead of the market?
Let's power rank all 12 of the 2-2 teams from worst to first, analyze their futures outlooks, and find the betting value.
NFL Power Rankings for All 2-2 Teams
| Tier Number | Category |
|---|---|
| Tier V | The NFC South |
| Tier IV | Stuck in Purgatory |
| Tier III | Get Used to Floating Around .500 |
| Tier II | It’s Time to Buy Stock |
| Tier I | Still the Right Favorites |
Tier V — The NFC South
12. Carolina Panthers
Wins: ATL, DET | Losses: CHI, CLE
The Panthers are probably deserving of their 2-2 record, but only because they got to play against Cooper Rush in one of those games. Their only truly impressive game was a primetime home win against a bad Lions defense.
Carolina is currently dealing with huge cluster injuries on the offensive line and missing its top two cornerbacks. When you look at the Panthers' schedule, they may only be favored one more time before Week 18 — and only if Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay in Week 7.
Verdict: It's nice that the Panthers are a more fun watch and that Bryce Young is balling right now, but investing in their futures is unnecessarily buying high.
11. Atlanta Falcons
Wins: GB, NO | Losses: CAR, PIT
As awesome as the Falcons looked over their last two games, remember that they also had the worst offensive EPA through two games of any team in two decades.
Are we sure we’ve really learned much?
They faced reeling Green Bay and New Orleans teams with poor offensive lines and zero run defense — the perfect setup for them. Atlanta ranks top five in running the ball and stopping the run, and it has manufactured a surprising pass rush, but that was against bad offensive lines.
This was always the ultimate sell-high spot for Atlanta.
Look at the Falcons' upcoming gauntlet: Baltimore, Chicago, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Detroit.
Atlanta might get lucky and duck Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, and Baker Mayfield over the next month, but that is a brutal upcoming slate.
Verdict: I'm annoyed I didn't grab the +800 division ticket two weeks ago when the Falcons were 0-2, but now the move is to let Atlanta and Carolina look good while we wait to buy low on New Orleans or Tampa Bay during its softer schedule stretches.
Tier IV — Stuck in Purgatory
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
Wins: ATL, CIN | Losses: NE, CLE
The Steelers snagged an ugly, undeserved win against Cooper Rush and followed it up with an ugly loss to a mediocre Patriots team and another ugly loss to Cleveland.
If not for a completely random 30-27 voodoo home win over Cincinnati, things would look pretty bleak.
This is the exact same Steelers team they always are: not particularly good or bad at anything, with a defense that is okay but not elite.
This feels like a 7-8 win team unless they find a couple more voodoo upsets. The Steelers do have a winnable four-game stretch coming up: the Colts on the road post-London, possibly the Jalon Daniels-led Bucs, and then home for the Saints and Browns.
Verdict: Wait to fade the Steelers after their Week 9 bye when the schedule flips aggressively against them.
9. Philadelphia Eagles
Wins: WAS, TEN | Losses: LAR, CHI
Have the Eagles looked genuinely good at any point in any game yet?
They got absolutely crushed by Case Keenum's Bears, looked ugly against the Rams, and easily could have lost to both the Commanders and Titans. Philadelphia is definitively closer to 1-3 than 3-1.
The Eagles offense stinks, and the defense is highly beatable with a shockingly middling DVOA.
Sitting at 2-2 isn't a terrible outcome for their first four games until you look at the details: Washington debuted two new coordinators, Tennessee has a new staff with Cam Ward, Chicago started Keenum, and Los Angeles was missing Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett.
Now, the injuries are hitting Philly hard.
Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are banged up. Zack Baun and Jonathan Greenard are out — and worst of all, Lane Johnson suddenly retired.
You can't execute a stars-and-scrubs roster build if all the stars are hurt.
The offensive line feels middling (especially with Johnson out), the tush-push is ineffective, and the run game is broken. Sean Mannion’s offense looks as disjointed as always, and third-down regression hit them hard after a historically bad 0-for-12 on third downs on Sunday.
Look at this upcoming stretch: touchdown underdogs against Jacksonville in London, no rest against Carolina, then Dallas, Washington, and the Giants. If the Eagles drop to 2-5, is that it for Nick Sirianni?
FTN projects the Eagles at 8.9 wins and a 47% chance at the playoffs. I don't think this is a team that just misses. If this goes bad, I want the whole mineshaft.
Verdict: I’m all the way out. I’ve never been in. This feels like the end for the Sirianni era.
BET: Eagles Under 8.5 Wins (34% / +194 at Kalshi), Under 7.5 Wins (23% / +335 at Kalshi), Under 6.5 Wins (11% / +809 at Kalshi).
8. Indianapolis Colts
Wins: WAS, HOU | Losses: BAL, KC
The Colts suffered an ugly loss to Baltimore, managed an ugly win over Washington, and split coin flips against Kansas City and Houston. It doesn't look terrible on the surface, but the Colts were lucky to get those coin flips — they are much closer to a 1-3 team.
Under head coach Shane Steichen, Indianapolis remains the ultimate litmus test. Per Zach Hicks, the Colts are 18-4 against teams that finish under .500, and 7-22 against teams that finish over .500. That checks out perfectly this year: they are 0-2 against K.C. and Baltimore and 2-0 against Washington and Houston.
The Colts still face Pittsburgh, Houston, Miami, and Tennessee (twice) down the road, which points directly to an 8-9 win season.
That would be perfectly in line for Steichen, who has gone 9-8, 8-9, and 8-9 so far.
Verdict: The Colts are stuck in purgatory like always. If they beat you, you’re bad. If you beat them, you’re a playoff team.
Tier III — Get Used to Floating Around .500
7. Green Bay Packers
Wins: NYJ, TB | Losses: MIN, ATL
The Packers have played four blah games against four blah teams. They have ugly road wins at the Jets and Bucs that they easily could have lost; they should have beaten Minnesota, and they lost ugly to Atlanta. Being 2-2 is fair, but it came against a very weak schedule.
The Packers sit in the bottom-quarter of the league in DVOA for offense, defense, and overall. The offensive line is rough (though slightly better last week), and the defense just lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to a torn Achilles.
With Micah Parsons reportedly out until November (at least four more games without him), the hope is to just hang around .500 while they figure out the offensive line and wait for him to return.
Verdict: It is embarrassing to be a field-goal underdog at Lambeau Field against a Bears backup quarterback. They should arguably rank lower, but playing .500 ball for now keeps them alive while they wait for Parsons and answers.
6. Denver Broncos
Wins: JAX, LAR | Losses: KC, SF
Denver has faced a brutal schedule, arguably playing four of the top five teams so far, so 2-2 seems okay! However, the Broncos didn't earn that 2-2 mark.
The Broncos have played poorly for 13 of 16 quarters (only playing well in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville and the second half against the Rams).
While some of the other teams on this list are closer to 1-3, this Denver team could easily be 0-4.
The Davis Webb offense just feels off and Bo Nix is playing poorly, completely lacking trust in his reads. Patrick Surtain being out for several weeks is a massive blow to Vance Joseph's defensive scheme, which relies on the star cornerback heavily.
Denver has been outgained by 200+ yards twice already (everyone else in the league has done that five times combined). The Broncos are in the top half of the league in DVOA across all three phases, but just barely.
The real problem is that there are no easy games because every game is incredibly losable for this team.
Verdict: This is exactly what this team has felt like the entire Sean Payton and Bo Nix era. I never thought they were a top Super Bowl contender. It's going to be a battle every week with lots of close games.
5. New England Patriots
Wins: PIT, BUF | Losses: SEA, JAX
Much like Denver, the Patriots sitting at 2-2 doesn't feel too bad against a tough schedule, especially doing it without A.J. Brown. They were awful in Jacksonville, but dominated Pittsburgh, could have beaten Seattle, and deserved their win in Buffalo.
That was a huge, season-saving win in Buffalo that kept the Patriots' division hopes alive, and now the schedule swings heavily in their favor.
Up next, the Patriots are home for Vegas and the Jets, followed by the Bears (maybe without Caleb Williams) and Miami. The Pats could easily be 5-3 or 6-2 at the start of November, though the next three are tougher than they looked a month ago.
The defense has been pretty good, ranking seventh in DVOA, which is right where I ranked them coming into the season. But the offense is still really rough, ranking 26th in DVOA, with Drake Maye struggling and having no reliable weapons.
I thought this would be a great spot to invest in Patriots futures, but the market heavily overreacted. FTN has them at about a 50/50 coin flip for the playoffs and 20% to win the division.
The market pricing them over -200 to make the playoffs is badly overpriced. The value right now is on Patriots to miss the playoffs at 37% (Polymarket).
Verdict: It's hard to fade the Patriots right now given their upcoming soft schedule and a crucial matchup against Vegas that has direct playoff implications, but we may have to fade them midseason after this stretch.
Tier II — It’s Time to Buy Stock
4. Detroit Lions
Wins: NO, NYJ | Losses: BUF, CAR
Th Lions' wins against the Saints and Jets were a bit lucky — it is never great to find yourself in coin-flip games against New Orleans, New York, and Carolina. The Lions also got absolutely demolished by Buffalo in a tough scheduling spot.
There have been 55, 58, 67, and 72 total points in Detroit's four games, for an average of 63 points per game. It is hard to live like that.
The Lions' 31st-ranked defense has no shot, allowing 24+ points in all four games against mediocre teams, and the secondary has absolutely no answers.
The good news? Safety Brian Branch and center Cade Mays are returning soon, and the young offensive line is gelling.
A top-10 offense always gives them a shot in any game, and they still have the second-softest remaining schedule in the league with games against Arizona, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, and the Giants.
The Lions feel like a team that wins 8-10 games but falls just short because of defensive implosions.
Verdict: I’m out on Green Bay and skeptical of the Bears — FTN has them at just 5% and 20% in the division, respectively.
FTN has the Vikings at 40% and the Lions at 35%, projecting Detroit for 10.4 wins and almost a 70% chance to make the playoffs. That means there's probably value on making the playoffs (-108 at DraftKings) and the division (+280 at DraftKings).
I already hold a great Vikings +510 division ticket, so I am betting Detroit to give myself a second out.
BET: Lions to Win the NFC North (+280 at DraftKings).
3. Dallas Cowboys
Wins: WAS, HOU | Losses: NYG, BAL
The Cowboys are essentially a more fun version of the Lions. Dallas' defense is so bad it made Houston's offense look good, though hopefully, Joey Porter Jr. helps.
The Cowboys offense is even better with a much higher ceiling, plus they boast vastly better special teams unit and coaching staff. Through four games, Dallas has the fifth-best points per drive of any team since 2000, sandwiched right between the 2007 Patriots and the 2018 Chiefs!
The offensive line has been better than expected as the young guys develop, and with Tyler Smith returning soon, it might be a top-five unit.
The schedule bounces in the Cowboys' favor with Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Philly all struggling, meaning a 5-3 or 6-2 start is highly plausible. Weeks 13-16 (Philly, at Seattle, at the Rams, Jacksonville) will tell the story of their season.
Sitting at 2-2 feels right after splitting coin flips with Baltimore and Houston over the last two weeks.
Verdict: The Cowboys offense is good enough to win any game, but the defense is bad enough to lose it. I don't blame you for wanting futures stock, but the defense severely limits the upside for a deep playoff run.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Wins: TB, HOU | Losses: PIT, JAX
This was the exact spot on the calendar I had circled before the season began.
The Bengals are notoriously slow starters — true to form, they scuffled to ugly wins against Tampa Bay and Houston and suffered an ugly loss to Pittsburgh.
The Bengals should probably be 4-0, but since they are usually more like 1-3 at this point, we'll gladly take 2-2.
Here is where the schedule flips.
Cincinnati now has the No. 1 softest remaining schedule by DVOA. The Bengals get Miami next, then a bye (so basically two byes), and they only have three games left against projected playoff teams (the Ravens twice and the Chiefs). Lamar Jackson's injury is a massive opportunity that opens up the division.
The Bengals defense still isn't perfect, but we only needed the defense and offensive line to be around the 20th best in the league, and we got it! They can hang.
I don't see a ton of value on division or playoff odds since the market is usually high on them, but there is value in the MVP market.
The race feels like it is down to Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow.
Lawrence is under half Burrow's price with much worse stats, so don't buy high on him after winning the head-to-head matchup; it's a marathon, not a sprint. Burrow is on pace for 34 touchdowns and almost 5,000 passing yards.
The Bengals defense might actually put their QB in the ultimate MVP sweet spot: good enough to contend, but bad enough that Burrow needs to put up big numbers every week.
Jackson's injury helps Burrow's case immensely if he misses time or the Ravens lose games, since he's probably the MVP if the season ended today.
FTN has the Bengals at about a 1-in-8 shot (12%) at a top-two seed. If they get a top-two seed, Burrow likely wins MVP.
Verdict: 12% for a top-two seed versus 4% for MVP is way off. Bet the long tail. The AFC is the kingmaker.
BET: Joe Burrow to win MVP at 4% (DK Predict / Kalshi) or +2000 at BetRivers as needed.
- Check out Sean Koerner's Live NFL Quarterback Power Rankings
Tier I — Still the Right Favorites
1. Los Angeles Rams
Wins: NYG, PHI | Losses: DEN, SF
It's fine. Everything is fine.
The Rams deserved to beat Philly and should’ve beaten Denver too. They should probably be 3-1, and who knows what happened with that weird Australia opener. The Rams are 2-2 and mostly doing it without Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Puka Nacua.
Incredibly, the defense has been dominant for most of the last three games without the defending Defensive Player of the Year, currently ranking No. 4 in DVOA. The offense has been slightly disappointing, but still sits at No. 7.
The only true glaring issue is their horrendous special teams (No. 32 DVOA), which will almost certainly cost them a game at some point.
Everybody chill.
This is just the usual Rams script — they peak later.
Last year, they went from 3-2 to 12-5. The year before, 1-4 to 10-7. In 2023, 3-6 to 10-7. (Of course, they also lost a road playoff game in all three of those seasons, so keep that in mind).
I'll take a little nibble on Puka Nacua for Offensive Player of the Year. He is currently on pace for 105 catches, 1,500 yards, and 8 touchdowns, even after missing two games and playing hurt.
Last year, Nacua was top three for OPOY with 129/1,700/11, so he is not that far off the pace. A sports hernia is worrisome and probably won’t end well, but pricing him at 2% is downright disrespectful.
Verdict: They are exactly who we thought they were.
BET: Puka Nacua for OPOY at 2% / +4900 (DK Predict / Kalshi).
Brandon Anderson's Futures Bets Placed in This Article
- Eagles Win Total Mineshaft: Under 8.5 (34% / +194), Under 7.5 (23% / +335), Under 6.5 (11% / +809) on Kalshi
- Lions to Win NFC North: +280 (DraftKings)
- Joe Burrow MVP: 4% / +2400 (DK Predict / Kalshi / +2000 at FanDuel)
- Puka Nacua OPOY: 2% / +4900 (DK Predict / Kalshi)
