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Giants vs Cowboys Odds & Prediction: Monday Night Football Betting Picks

Giants vs Cowboys Odds & Prediction: Monday Night Football Betting Picks article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott (left) and Daniel Jones.

  • The 2-0 Giants are favored tonight at home against the Cowboys.
  • A win would keep New York tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East.
  • Stuckey breaks down the matchup and makes his picks below.

Cowboys vs. Giants Odds

Cowboys Odds +1.5
Giants Odds -1.5
Moneyline +100 / -118
Over/Under 38.5
Time Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via FanDuel.

Two NFC East rivals will square off on Monday night in the Meadowlands. A home victory would move the Giants to 3-0 for the first time since 2009, while the Cowboys can get over .500 and avoid falling too far back in the NFC East with a win.

The Cowboys swept the season series in 2021, winning by a combined margin of 65-26. However, these are very different teams for various reasons, starting with the quarterback under center for Dallas.

Can Cooper Rush make it a perfect 3-for-3 as a starter, or will this new and improved Giants staff keep the good times rolling in New York?

Let’s take a closer look.

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Cowboys vs. Giants Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Giants match up statistically:

Cowboys vs. Giants DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 28 20
Pass DVOA 27 21
Rush DVOA 10 22
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 18 6
Pass DVOA 19 5
Rush DVOA 11 12

This game will likely be decided by which defense can force the opposing quarterback into the most mistakes. The Cowboys have excelled at generating pressure through the first two games in large part due to the ultimate chess piece, Micah Parsons. (Parsons is dealing with the flu for what it’s worth.)

Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who deserves a lot of credit for modernizing his scheme since arriving in Dallas, will move Parsons all over the field based on the perceived weaknesses of the opposing offensive line. With a very beat up and limited Giants’ wide receiver room, expect Dallas to bring relentless heat. I anticipate stacked boxes daring Daniel Jones to beat them deep, while also bottling up Saquon Barkley, who has struggled against Dallas in his career.

Can the Giants’ offensive line hold up and give Jones enough time to make plays with either his arm or legs? It’s definitely an improved unit compared to what we’ve seen in years past with two very promising bookends. Rookie Evan Neal has a promising future and Andrew Thomas has continued to shine at left tackle and is the highest graded at his position through the first two weeks.

However, it’s a unit that still has exploitable areas. Life won’t be easy for Jones, especially without Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson on the outside.

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Dallas has similar question marks — outside of star guard Zack Martin — along its offensive line , especially with fellow starting guard Connor McGovern out for this one. While the Cowboys will get a break in not having to face Leonard Williams (out), they may have to worry about New York’s promising young edge rushers, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari, who are officially listed as questionable.

Plus, it’s not like Rush has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Yes, Michael Gallup could return from injury, but I doubt he’ll get a full workload. Tight end Dalton Schultz is also listed as questionable.

The star of the show in New York’s 2-0 start has arguably been new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. His blitz-heavy style seems to fit this personnel group very effectively, which isn’t surprising since the Giants did excel when blitzing last season, but just didn’t generate enough consistent pressure.

Martindale has disguised his pre-snap looks beautifully so far in 2022 and opposing quarterbacks have looked extremely lost at times. I’ve also loved how he’s used his safeties in different roles, which throws in a pre-snap element of surprise for opposing quarterbacks.

I think Cooper Rush is in for a long night.

Betting Picks

With this line coming back down, I actually show a bit of value on the Giants at home against a backup quarterback.

I don’t think the market has fully priced in the upgrade of this Giants coaching staff, which has led to much more efficient play-calling and competent decision making. I think it will come down to one key mistake, which Rush is more likely to make in my opinion.

Last week, everyone wanted to fade Rush against a dysfunctional (at the time) Bengals team. Now, one week later, everybody wants to back him after one win. I’m not buying it. The Giants also now have tape on him in this offense, which the Bengals did not have.

We’ve seen plenty of backup quarterbacks succeed in their first starts, then struggle thereafter. Over the past five seasons, backup quarterbacks are 17-35 straight up in their second career start, including 6-17 since the start of 2020.

In regards to the total, this should be an absolute grinder with both defenses controlling the line of scrimmage. I also don’t see many red zone trips ending in touchdowns.

It’s been the year of the under, so far with a record of 29-17-1. There’s obviously a lot of noise in that sample size and I expect it to eventually normalize. However,  I do think offenses are getting off to slower starts due to fewer reps in a reduced preseason. Plus, we have seen an unusually high amount of injuries at wide receiver and quarterback, which are both especially relevant in this game.

I’ll be on the under here, but small as most of the juice has been squeezed from the number.

Pick: Under 39.5, Giants -1 | Bet to 38.5, -1 (both small)

FanDuel Quickslip: Under 39.5

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