Packers vs Cowboys: NFL Week 10 Odds & Picks
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
Packers vs Cowboys Odds
The Packers have lost five consecutive games in four different cities and return home looking to save their season against the Cowboys.
For the first time in his career, Aaron Rodgers is an underdog of more than a field goal at Lambeau Field. Dallas just had its bye week and is flying high at 6-2 when Dak Prescott is healthy.
When Green Bay beat New England in overtime to get to 3-1, it was clear the Packers had flaws, but it wasn't clear just how quickly they'd get exposed. Green Bay then blew a big lead in London and lost to the Giants and then lost to the Jets at home as a touchdown favorite. At this point, the Packers were clearly overinflated in the market as a touchdown-plus favorite in three consecutive games.
Since that loss to the Jets, the Packers have played three straight road games. They were overinflated against the Commanders, but the market has clearly bottomed out on them here.
Much like when Rodgers was a double-digit underdog in Buffalo, now is the time to buy low on Green Bay in a desperation home game. It is difficult to do that given the injuries right now, but this is a classic sell-high and buy-low spot.
Packers vs Cowboys Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Cowboys match up statistically:
Packers vs Cowboys DVOA Breakdown
Green Bay's offense really isn't as bad as the public narrative says it is. The Packers are nowhere near the levels of last season for sure, but they're slightly above average in series success rate, meaning they keep the chains moving more than the standard NFL team in 2022.
Red-zone failures did them in last week in Detroit, when Rodgers threw two goal line interceptions and they turned it over on downs on another possession in plus territory.
One area of strength is the offensive line. The Packers offensive line is still second in the NFL in line yards and top five in adjusted sack rate. Both are major keys when you consider that the strength of the Dallas defense is the front. If the Cowboys can overwhelm an opponent with their defensive line — Rams, Bucs, Lions — they can be lethal. But when the Bears and Eagles were able to keep the line from getting constant pressure and they were able to run the ball, the Cowboys defense was a bit more vulnerable.
The Packers offense is 15th in DVOA this season, so it's far from a below-average unit overall.
Cowboys -4.5 | Packers +4.5
Defensively, the Packers are 18th in DVOA. The blueprint on them is clear: run the ball early and often and easily move the ball down the field. Green Bay is 31st in run defense DVOA and extremely vulnerable to teams who want to run the ball.
Dallas should find plenty of rushing success, but it's true that it's just harder to get margin if you're going to be a run first team. It hurts the Packers when they're a favorite and teams can kill the clock, control the ball and move down the field on them. It's less impactful when Green Bay is an underdog. Ezekiel Elliott is listed as questionable for this game and that could limit the effectiveness of the backfield because Tony Pollard — the better back in Dallas — isn't as used to a huge workload.
The Packers are also dealing with a handful of injuries that make it even more difficult to hold your nose and bet them here at home. David Bakhtiari is once again questionable and Amari Rodgers is uncertain to play. The Packers will be without Romeo Doubs at wideout, Eric Stokes at corner and linebacker De'Vondre Campbell.
The Cowboys are clearly the better team, but we've reached the bottom of the market on Green Bay with this line. The summer lookahead line was Green Bay -3.5 and now the Packers are catching more than a field goal at home.
Based on our Action Network luck rankings, Dallas has been the third most fortunate team in the NFL. A lot of that was built up with Cooper Rush in at quarterback, but the Cowboys have had a lot of bounces go their way to have won all but one of his starts.
Green Bay has been the least fortunate team in the league. A lot of that stems from last week's loss to Detroit with all of the red-zone turnovers. You also have to consider the late collapse to the Giants and the close loss to the Commanders.
Dallas is the better team, but Green Bay is still average enough to the point where +4.5 at home is a good bet. I'd bet them at +4 or better.
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