Cowboys vs Rams Odds & Picks | NFL Week 5

Cowboys vs Rams Odds & Picks | NFL Week 5 article feature image

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Donald (No. 99) and Matthew Stafford (No. 9).

  • The Rams are home favorites in Week 5 against the Cowboys
  • Los Angeles lost in Week 4, while Dallas has won three straight games.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the matchup and reveals his betting pick.

Cowboys vs. Rams Odds

Sunday, Oct. 9
4:25 p.m. ET
Cowboys Odds
-105o / -115u
Rams Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This Cowboys season was in peril following a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay and Dak Prescott's injury. Dallas dealt with a ton of injuries in the preseason and training camp and was facing the prospects of a lost season after the season opener.

Enter backup quarterback Cooper Rush, though, and the Cowboys have now won three consecutive games against the Bengals, Giants and Commanders. Sunday will be Rush's toughest test yet though when the Cowboys visit Los Angeles to take on the defending Super Bowl champions in "America's Game of the Week."

The Cowboys may have won three straight games, but there were some fortunate bounces, dropped interceptions and penalties that went their way in crucial moments. The line opened around 6.5 and has come down to as low as five before bouncing back toward the Rams.

The Rams may have lost on Monday night in a pretty feeble showing against the 49ers, but this is an excellent bounce-back spot. They should shut down the Cowboys' rushing attack offense and force Rush to make plays.

Cowboys vs. Rams Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Rams match up statistically:

Cowboys vs. Rams DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1718
Pass DVOA1325
Rush DVOA123
Overall DVOA265
Pass DVOA225
Rush DVOA1925

Dallas couldn't do anything right offensively in Week 1, but it has some semblance of a  ground game since Rush became the temporary quarterback that has taken a ton of pressure off of him.  The numbers aren't overwhelming, but the Cowboys were above league average in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/play in Weeks 2 and 3.

The real problem comes if you can take away the run and make Rush beat you, as Washington did last week and the Rams are sure to do this week. Los Angeles is sixth in Rushing Success Rate allowed, and that will force Dallas into passing downs early and often.

The Rams defense is even better against the run on early downs, where it ranks first in success rate allowed and second in EPA/rush. The Dallas offense is just 20th in early down EPA and 22nd in early down success rate.

Rush has an impressive eight touchdowns and zero interceptions through three starts, but that doesn't tell the whole story of the backup quarterback's play either. He's had four turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus, and two different interceptions called back due to penalties.

Rush has made just three big time throws and has a passing grade of 63. His only great game by the grading came against a bad Giants defense when the Cowboys were ahead of the chains the entire night because of early down rushing success.

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It's true that the Rams offense has some legitimate concerns, too.

The Average Depth of Target for Matthew Stafford has dropped year over year. He's bottom five in the league in the stat this season. The passing success rate (seventh) and EPA/play (27th) suggests that positive regression is coming for the Rams offensively. It might not come if Stafford keeps throwing to the other team, though. Remove turnovers and the Rams still rank just 15th in passing efficiency.

The Dallas defense is extremely aggressive on the outside and capable of generating pressure on Stafford. He has seven turnover-worthy plays and six interceptions in four games. Even more concerning, his Pro Football Focus grade from clean pockets is 24 points worse than his grade when under pressure.

Betting Picks

I have question marks about both offenses coming into this game. Rush has major regression coming in the turnover department and is likely to be under duress in passing downs for the majority of this game. Stafford could also face plenty of pressure in this game and given Dallas's elite short pass defense, there's a concern for the Rams offense running into some problems.

But the number is too short now because of the Rams' road loss to San Francisco.

The Rams always seem to lose to the 49ers and often look bad doing so. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan has owned Rams coach Sean McVay in their rivalry. But McVay always has the Rams ready to play the following week. They've followed five or their last six losses to the 49ers with wins and covers the following week.

Given that the lookahead line for this game was seven and nothing happened last week to change my real opinion of either team, it's time to sell high on the Rush revolution and take the Rams at the shorter price.

I wouldn't lay more than six points in this matchup because of backdoor risk and six being a key number.

Click Here to Bet Rams -5.5 on FanDuel | Play to Rams -6

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