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Broncos-Raiders MNF Betting Preview: Back Oakland as a Trendy Dog?

Dec 24, 2018 5:00 PM EST
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Von Miller, Derek Carr

Betting odds: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

  • Spread: Broncos -3
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Believe it or not, Oakland is a trendy dog after losing to Jeff Driskel and Cincinnati by two touchdowns a week ago.

The Raiders are getting 56% of bets as a 3-point home underdog as of writing (see live data here), and have even received multiple waves of sharp support that caused the line to drop to +2.5 for a stretch of this week.

Then again, Denver also saw some sharp action at -2.5 that has caused the line to return to the opening line of -3.

The over/under has dropped from 45 to 43 as wet and windy conditions could be in store.Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Division games tend to be more competitive due to increased familiarity among opponents, which often leads to lower scoring.

Thus it has been profitable to bet the under in division games. The optimal strategy is to target games in Week 11 or later with totals of more than 44 points. John Ewing

Metrics that matter: The Broncos and Raiders are the 21st- and 29th-ranked offenses, respectively, in points per game. Both teams scored just 16 points in losses last week.

Since 2003, when two teams score 16 or fewer points the week before playing in prime time (including playoffs), the over is 38-27-1 (58.5%).

But in the past three seasons, it’s the under that’s 7-2 in this spot, going under the total by 4.7 points per game, including 5-1 in divisional games. Evan Abrams