Lions vs 49ers Prediction & Pick | NFC Championship Betting Preview

My Lions vs 49ers prediction and pick targets two betting markets, with one bet on the spread and the other on which team will score first. Lions vs 49ers odds (via bet365) have the 49ers installed as 7.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 52.5 total points. On the moneyline, the 49ers are -370 and the Lions are +290.

San Francisco and Detroit entered the season with the second- and fourth-best odds in the NFC to make the Super Bowl. With preseason favorite Philadelphia and third-favorite Dallas eliminated, the Lions are trying to advance to their first Super Bowl in franchise history. They'll play their first NFC Championship game since 1991 as they visit the 49ers on Sunday, when the winner will book its ticket to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.

With excellent weather in the forecast and Deebo Samuel overcoming an injury scare, the total has been bet up from 50.5 to 52.5. The 49ers have the clear advantage offensively (on paper) in the passing game, but the market continues to overvalue their defense. Head coach Kyle Shanahan's conservative in-game decision making could also leave the 49ers vulnerable.

Key inactives for the Lions include G Jonah Jackson and WR Kalif Raymond. EDGE James Houston, however, is active for his first game since Week 2.

Let's dive into in my NFC Championship Game betting preview and make Lions vs 49ers picks.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Lions and 49ers match up statistically:

Lions vs. 49ers DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	5	4
Pass DVOA	7	4
Rush DVOA	4	15

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	1	13
Pass DVOA	1	16
Rush DVOA	2	1

Any analysis of this matchup should start with the glaring advantage that San Francisco's pass offense has against Detroit's secondary. The Lions have struggled to contain the Rams, Buccaneers, Vikings and Cowboys in the last six weeks, and none of those teams are as efficient on paper as San Francisco.

The Niners were by far the best offense by EPA per play and success rate on a per drop back basis. They rank No. 1 in pass explosiveness because of their elite ability to scheme open receivers and the yards-after-catch ability of their playmakers. Defensively, Detroit is 32nd in pass explosiveness allowed. The Lions allowed the third-highest net yards per attempt passing and the fourth-most first downs through the air.

The question is whether the 49ers will be able to effectively and explosively run the ball. Detroit allowed just 3.7 yards per carry this season, which was third in the NFL. Based on rush DVOA, the Lions had the best run-stopping unit in the league.

The Lions are fourth in rush EPA allowed, which is considerably better than Green Bay was entering last week. Detroit’s pass rush also ranked first in pressure rate. The pass rush win rate numbers aren’t nearly as dominant for Detroit, but the 49ers' offensive line took a noticeable step back in their underlying pressure rate allowed this season.

Brock Purdy operated well under pressure most of the season and Kyle Shanahan has so much offensive talent at his disposal to easily overcome the relatively average offensive line, but the 49ers were below league average in pressure rate allowed. The wet conditions clearly impacted Purdy's throwing ability against Green Bay, but the 49ers quarterback has now struggled in both playoff games he's started.

There's been far too much discourse on the extreme ends of the Purdy argument and his regular-season dominance cannot be ignored. San Francisco could dominate offensively, but there's some downside risk if it becomes too one-dimensional and the Lions take away the run.

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San Francisco is likely to be quite efficient offensively, and the spread and total will likely come down to how effectively Detroit is both able to move the ball and — more importantly — shorten the game.

Green Bay was so efficient and methodical in moving the ball that San Francisco only had three offensive possessions in the first half. The Packers only scored six points because of red-zone issues and a fourth-down stop on a quarterback sneak, but they kept the clock grinding and the chains moving.

The primary reason was the Packers' run offense.

A look at the tale of the tape between these teams, using per-drive stats, paints a picture that San Francisco is overvalued because of holes in its defense. The 49ers aren’t generating as much pressure as you’d expect given the talent and the defense is 28th in rush EPA since Week 9.

The 49ers defense is just 22nd in overall success rate since Week 9.

The Lions will be without offensive guard Jonah Jackson and wide receiver Khalif Raymond. Detroit's offensive line grades out extremely well in blocking off-tackle runs, something Green Bay was able to exploit San Francisco.

Detroit is likely to get the ball first regardless of who wins the coin toss. The 49ers will defer to the second half if given the chance, and the Lions are likely to take the ball. That creates value on Detroit to score first (+120 at BetMGM).

I'd expect Dan Campbell to be extremely aggressive with potential late-down situations, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been excellent on the script for Detroit. The Lions will try to establish control and an early lead to apply scoreboard pressure. If they're able to shorten the game and stay connected to San Francisco, they're live to win.

The Lions have a strategic edge on the margins with how both coaches tend to call games with fourth-down aggression. Shanahan is notoriously conservative despite having the league's best offense and ranks 28th in fourth-down aggression. Campbell, meanwhile, ranks third.

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The health of Deebo Samuel and the excellent weather conditions set up San Francisco's offense well to score points. The 49ers were overvalued against Green Bay because their defense wasn't good enough to slow down the Packers and keep points off the board and maximize possessions.

The Lions offense hasn't been as good outdoors this season, but keep in mind they played Kansas City, Baltimore and Chicago in three of their five outdoor games. Those three teams had superior defenses to San Francisco.

In bad conditions, I'd be more inclined to fade Jared Goff. With sunny skies expected, the Lions are live to cover and pull off the stunning upset.