Dolphins vs Jets Odds, Picks, Prediction
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Teddy Bridgewater.
- The Dolphins are favorites on the road this week against the Jets.
- Teddy Bridgewater is famous for his record against the spread.
- Blake Krass previews the game and makes his pick below.
Dolphins vs. Jets Odds
Teddy Bridgewater gets his first start of the year as the Dolphins look to rebound from their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson will make his home debut after helping the Jets pick up a win in Pittsburgh.
This is a massive game for Wilson as he tries to prove he's trending in the right direction in his sophomore season. He showed flashes at the end of his rookie year and did a great job of leading the Jets to a fourth-quarter comeback last week. However, he still has to solve his turnover problem to keep the Jets in games early.
For Bridgewater, he'll try to succeed in an offense he's not accustomed to with starter Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Since Bridgewater's return from his knee injury, he has been asked to mostly just be a game manager whereas this Dolphins offense is predicated on utilizing explosive plays.
Dolphins vs. Jets Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Dolphins and Jets match up statistically:
Dolphins vs. Jets DVOA Breakdown
"Teddy Bridgewater is 24-6 ATS on the road as an NFL starter" is the most popular trend I have seen circulating on Twitter this week. While it's a great record (and I've made a lot of money on him over the past few years), this trend fails to point out the fact that Bridgewater was an underdog in 26 of those games.
Constantly underestimated, Bridgewater has been great in these spots because he does a phenomenal job limiting turnovers and making enough throws to keep his team in the game. In this contest, that is not what he is expected to do. He is expected to step in and take over one of the most explosive passing offenses in football and win in a divisional road game.
Last week was a tough spot to come in, but if you take away the one massive pass to Tyreek Hill, Bridgewater only averaged 5.8 YPA. For comparison, Tagovailoa has averaged 9.0 YPA, the second-highest mark in the NFL.
I think Bridgewater will struggle to create the explosive plays that have been such a key part of the Dolphins' offense this year. That in turn will keep the game low scoring and allow the Jets to hang around.
The Jets' skill position players are starting to emerge as stars with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson both earning Offensive Rookie of the Week awards and Corey Davis compiling a great bounce-back season. New York's biggest offensive struggle has been the offensive line, but it could get a massive boost with the return of Duane Brown at LT.
The Jets also have the athletes in their secondary with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed taking on the Dolphins' Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Time will tell if the experience of Hill outweighs the youth of Gardner, but this is one of the few CB duos that can even hope to contend with Miami's duo from a pure athleticism perspective.
The Jets defense has been criticized this season, but they are coming off their best performance of the year against Pittsburgh. They are now a respectable 15th in DAVE (per Football Outsiders), which is DVOA adjusted for early season variance.
Miami comes in at 27th in DAVE, 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA. Needless to say, this is a good spot for Wilson and the Jets offense to get rolling.
Should this game come down to the little things, the Jets are second in the NFL in special teams DVOA while the Dolphins are 31st. The Jets have also led two fourth-quarter double-digit comebacks this year and are fifth in the NFL in fourth quarter points scored, which makes them ideal for a backdoor cover in the scenario they are down late.
I think these two teams are more well-matched than the public thinks, especially with Bridgewater at the helm. The Dolphins could struggle to replicate the explosive plays they have relied on and their defense is susceptible to giving up big plays.
Wilson should perform well in his return to MetLife and the bolstered Jets' OL should help him find his plethora of skill position options. The athleticism of the Jets' defense should also keep the Dolphins' weapons at bay.
The Jets should keep this game close and this could come down to a field goal in either direction, in which case I lean toward New York's superior special teams. I like the Jets at a field goal or better and think they have a good chance to win outright.
FanDuel Quickslip: Jets +3.5 | Bet to +3