Super Bowl 60 betting was generally a boon for sportsbooks. It was also a big event for prediction markets, which continue to stamp their imprint on sports.
With Kalshi leading the way, prediction markets did record numbers on Super Bowl 60 trading.
And that was despite a relatively boring game. Imagine if Patriots vs. Seahawks turned into a shootout that went to the wire, which would have encouraged more active trading throughout the game.
Pump Up the Volume
A year ago, Kalshi was just getting started in offering prediction markets for sports. So, Super Bowl 59 did a modest $27 million in volume.
This week, post-Super Bowl 60, Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in volume traded on Patriots vs. Seahawks markets, along with novelties such as halftime markets, etc. Add in Polymarket and more of the best prediction market apps, and the total volume was likely north of $1.5 billion.
“It’s a huge number,” gaming analyst and sports betting newsletter publisher Dustin Gouker said. “It shows a lot of adoption of prediction markets. Most of it is in places where there’s not legal sports betting — California and Texas, for example.”
But with that much volume, there’s also some adoption from consumers in states with legal, regulated sports betting.
Trading Volume vs. Handle
High volume noted, it’s also worth pointing out that prediction market volume and sportsbook handle are two very different things.
In sports betting, handle is the total amount bet. A $5 bet counts as $5 of handle toward the final tally. In prediction markets, if a customer makes a $5 transaction that has the potential to profit $5, then the volume is $10.
Furthermore, in trading, volume represents all matched trades as there’s a customer on each side of the transaction. For example, a trader taking a position on the Seahawks to win can make that transaction when another trader accepts the opposite position.
Nevada sportsbooks had $133.8 million in Super Bowl 60 wagers. Kalshi reported over $1 billion in volume. However, that doesn’t mean Kalshi — whose volume includes what partners such as Robinhood and PrizePicks drew — saw 7.5 times more money than Nevada sportsbooks.
Whether it’s Kalshi or other prediction markets, the actual dollar amount transacted is probably more along the lines of 50% of volume. But even that’s a gray area, because many markets pay better than 1-to-1, perhaps significantly better.
For example, someone trading Yes on whether there will be a safety, at +1000. Or a customer making a parlay transaction that heightens the odds.
On the flip side, many markets pay less than 1-to-1, such as trading on favorites to win. So, splitting the difference is at least a reasonable starting point to determine the total amount of dollars transacted.
“It’s not anywhere near as big as legal sportsbooks,” Gouker said.
The American Gaming Association estimated $1.76 billion in Super Bowl bets.
If you're curious about these markets and want to make some trades, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
It’s Still Massive
Handle vs. volume aside, there’s still no denying prediction markets’ success in sports, particularly with massive events such as the Super Bowl — the most-bet single-day sporting event in the United States.
“You cannot compare handle to volume as 1-to-1. They’re not equivalent numbers,” Gouker said. “But that’s not to say these aren’t big numbers from prediction markets. This is still hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Kalshi and other prediction markets speak to other ways consumers choose to engage with sports, in some cases out of preference/convenience, and in others out of necessity.
“Nobody should be shocked by these numbers. People like to bet on sports. It’s just a matter of how they do it,” Gouker said, while noting one of the contributing factors. “There are places where there aren’t a whole lot of options.”
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
