The Miami Dolphins are expected to move on from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa before the 2026 season begins, and Kalshi is showing active trading on the market for his next destination.
NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero, and Mike Garafolo have reported that Miami's new regime will part ways with the 27-year-old quarterback, and that the decision is expected before the league year begins on March 11.
If you want to get in on the action and predict Tua Tagovailoa's next team, Kalshi offers trading on a variety of markets. Kalshi is offered in most states and allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, politics, and entertainment.
Tua Tagovailoa's Next Team
The Dolphins face significant financial hurdles in moving their former Pro Bowl quarterback. Trading Tagovailoa would require Miami to absorb a substantial portion of his $54 million fully guaranteed salary for 2026, while also taking a $45.2 million dead cap charge immediately. Alternatively, releasing him would allow the team to spread nearly $100 million in dead cap money across two years, according to Pelissero.
Tagovailoa's Miami tenure peaked in 2023 when he formed a dynamic partnership with Tyreek Hill in one of the league's most explosive offenses. However, his fortunes declined dramatically in 2025, culminating in a midseason benching by former head coach Mike McDaniel, who started rookie Quinn Ewers instead. Following McDaniel's departure and Jeff Hafley's hiring as the new head coach, the franchise has decided to start fresh at quarterback.
The financial complexity of Tagovailoa's contract likely explains the limited prediction market activity, as potential suitors must weigh both his on-field production and salary cap implications. Tagovailoa himself acknowledged that a change of scenery would be "dope" after his benching, suggesting he's prepared for life beyond South Beach. Once clearer trade parameters emerge, expect betting markets to quickly establish odds on his next destination.
What is Kalshi
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1-99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
