The Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) and Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) meet in NFL Week 16 on Sunday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Cowboys are favored by 2 points on the spread (Cowboys -2), with the over/under set at 50 points. The Cowboys are -130 favorites on the moneyline, while the Chargers are +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Cowboys prediction for today's Week 16 game.
Chargers vs Cowboys Prediction
- Chargers vs Cowboys pick: Chargers +2.5
My Chargers vs Cowboys best bet is on the Chargers to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chargers vs Cowboys Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Chargers vs Cowboys NFL Week 16 Preview
The Chargers and Cowboys enter today's game with crucial playoff implications on the line. This game is a difficult handicap given the style of play of each team right now, but one team is undoubtedly playing much better defense, and that happens to be the team catching points in this game.
Justin Herbert’s yards per attempt have decreased significantly since the loss of left tackle Joe Alt. With Alt protecting his blindside, Herbert averaged 8.3 yards per attempt this season, but without Alt, that number is down to 6.5 yards per attempt.
With that said, the recent opponents of Los Angeles have not been easy defenses to navigate. Since Alt’s injury, only a Week 13 game against the Raiders featured a defensive unit ranked outside the top 15 in DVOA.
The Cowboys' pass defense will allow the Chargers to open things up once again and push the ball down the field. Dallas ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA with a schedule ranking of 22nd, meaning they have actually had one of the easier slates of offenses to deal with. J.J. McCarthy averaged over 10 yards per attempt against the Cowboys last week; Justin Herbert should be able to replicate a similar performance despite his recent struggles statistically.
Cowboys cornerback Daron Bland will miss time with an injury, and while Trevon Diggs is set to return, Bland’s loss is one this secondary cannot afford, and it will put even more pressure on rookie Shavon Revel. Per Pro Football Focus, Revel ranks 112th out of 112 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage grade this season.
The Chargers are 30th in red-zone efficiency, but it won’t be difficult to convert opportunities into touchdowns in this specific matchup. The Cowboys have one of the worst red-zone defenses in football — 72% of all trips inside the 20 against Dallas have resulted in a touchdown.
Dak Prescott has been carrying this team, but the Chargers are going to make him work for each and every yard. Prescott is back to featuring CeeDee Lamb, especially when he sees man coverage.
Per Sharp Football analysis, Lamb has been targeted on 38% of his routes against man coverage since his return from injury. The problem for the Cowboys is the lack of man coverage they will see on Sunday.
Los Angeles plays the second-lowest rate of man coverage league-wide at just 13%. The Chargers are going to force Prescott to check into running plays or look elsewhere in the passing game, likely bracketing Lamb in the process.
Furthermore, the entire scheme of the Chargers defense centers around limiting explosive plays. The 2.6 explosive plays of 20 or more yards per game they allow ranks 2nd best in the NFL.
This is one of those games where Prescott is going to find himself facing more 3rd downs than he would like, and he will have to convert consistently against the league’s fifth-best 3rd-down defense.
Chargers vs Cowboys Prediction, Betting Analysis
In a battle of two upper-echelon quarterbacks, I have to side with the team more likely to create explosive plays versus a vulnerable secondary and the defense more likely to limit the opposing offense from generating those game-changing plays.
In a game that could come down to the wire, grabbing points is significant and could prove consequential.
The Cowboys have been one of the more volatile teams in 2025 to wager on or against, but I believe their playoff hopes are dashed Sunday with their defense plaguing them once again.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
Spread
Take the Chargers to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I lean towards the Chargers moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
