The Miami Dolphins (1-6) and Atlanta Falcons (3-3) will face off in NFL Week 8. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will be broadcast on CBS.
The Falcons are favored by -7.5 on the spread over the Dolphins (Falcons -7.5); the over/under is 44.5 points. The Falcons are -425 moneyline favorites while the Dolphins are +325 underdogs.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs Falcons predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 26.
Dolphins vs Falcons Prediction
- Dolphins vs Falcons pick: Falcons -7.5
My Dolphins vs Falcons best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Falcons Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
Dolphins vs Falcons Week 8 Preview
Michael Penix Jr. is questionable to play, but he has been quoted as saying he will play when his team hosts the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Penix has played much better at home this season, where the Falcons have scored 68 points in three games in Atlanta but just 32 total in three road games.
If Penix isn’t able to go and Kirk Cousins makes the start, it would not change my handicap whatsoever, as the foundation of this team is their ability to run the ball and their rushing attack could have a field day.
The Falcons pass on just 47% of plays when they have the lead, ranking 26th league-wide when they feel like they are in control of the game. In this game versus a highly vulnerable Dolphins front seven, it is a certainty that we see a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
Miami’s defense is allowing 5.2 yards per carry against, 29th in the league. Robinson leads the NFL in yards after contact per rush, gaining 4.2 yards per carry after he is first contacted.
This combination is going to spell trouble for a Dolphins defense that struggles to limit yards after contact, ranking 30th in the league on a per-rush basis while also allowing explosive runs of 15 or more yards at the league’s highest rate (9.8%).
No matter which quarterback is under center for the Falcons, they will have the benefit of rarely facing third downs — and when they do, the distance needed to move the chains will likely be quite manageable.
The Dolphins simply can't get off the field on defense, with 54% of all drives against them reaching the red zone or hitting paydirt prior, which is also the league’s highest rate.
Opponents have scored a league-high 54 points off Miami turnovers. Atlanta could enjoy short fields if Tua Tagovailoa continues to have issues protecting the football. Tagovailoa has a 5.1% turnover-worthy throw rate this season and has the third-highest interception rate.
The Falcons boast the best pass defense in football, according to DVOA, this season — meaning once they get a lead, the errors and mistakes for the Miami offense could snowball as it has no choice but to throw the ball to get back in the game.
Atlanta blitzes at a 42.2% rate, the highest in football. If the Dolphins were to have any chance on Sunday, their pass protection would need to be nearly flawless.
The issue I have with the Miami offense is that even when Tagovailoa has been protected, he still ranks behind the likes of Cooper Rush, Cam Ward and Geno Smith in success rate throwing from a clean pocket.
It’s unlikely Tagovailoa will get the chance to navigate a clean pocket with the Falcons ranking fourth in adjusted sack rate.
Adjusted sack rate is a metric that takes into consideration down and distance, opponent and intentional grounding penalties. Tagovailoa has an abysmal passer rating of just 64.0 this season when under pressure.
The Falcons defense has been one of the most improved units in the NFL through seven weeks. The last time we saw them inside of Mercedes-Benz stadium, they limited one of the best offenses in football in Buffalo to just 5.4 yards per play. The Bills converted just 22% of their third downs in that game.
Dolphins vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are simply too many obstacles for the Dolphins to overcome to stay within striking distance of the Falcons.
Atlanta should be able to execute its game plan offensively by featuring one of the best skill players the league has to offer against the defense that has surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL this season.
Atlanta should control the game for 60 minutes, win the turnover battle and separate itself from the Dolphins with a margin.
I’d lay up to 8 with the Falcons in his spot.
Pick: Falcons -7.5; bet to -8
Spread
I'm picking the Falcons to cover.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the Over/Under.
