The Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders will face off in Week 1 of the NFL preseason tonight. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Summerfield, Md.
The Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread (Dolphins -3.5), with the over/under set at 36.5 total points. Miami is priced as a 61-cent favorite to win outright, while Washington is listed at 40 cents to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks for Friday, August 14.
My Dolphins vs Commanders Prediction
- Dolphins vs Commanders pick: Dolphins Moneyline
My Dolphins vs Commanders prediction is on Miami to win, with the best price currently available via our Polymarket promo code. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Commanders Odds
Dolphins vs Commanders Preseason Preview
Miami Dolphins Preview: New Era
Jeff Hafley leads the Dolphins into their first preseason game and his first as a head coach, and the biggest question of all is whether Malik Willis, the team’s main free agency acquisition and new QB1, will be starting.
When asked if he was intending to start the former Packer against the Commanders, Hafley said, “I am, but as you said, things can change.”
That might be a fairly noncommittal answer, but given it’s Willis’ first preseason as a starting quarterback, not just in Miami but anywhere in the NFL, it’s important that he gets reps. So we can expect to see Willis play before being withdrawn for Quinn Ewers and Cam Miller.
Miller is a huge step down as a former North Dakota State Bison and has no NFL experience, but Ewers, taken in the fifth round of last year’s NFL Draft, did end up playing four times, with three starts, last season.
Defensively, we get to see how first-round pick cornerback Chris Johnson performs and also keep an eye on whether Chop Robinson continues to excel as he has done throughout camp.
The Dolphins will be looking to see some veterans step up, with the likes of linebacker Tyrel Dodson listed as level with second-round pick Jacob Rodriguez. Given that he’s on a one-year deal, he needs to really cement an advantage here.
Elsewhere on the defense, it looks like a battle between Kenneth Grant and Jordan Phillips for a large chunk of reps at tackle, and this game could heavily impact the decision about who gets the bulk of the snaps.
Washington Commanders Preview: Plenty Still To Prove
The news out of the Commanders’ joint scrimmage with the Dolphins is that the Commanders looked very good, with Jayden Daniels dealing throughout. Across various drills, the quarterback is said to have looked even better than he’s been previously and was thriving playing a more traditional QB role in David Blough’s offense.
Daniels' chemistry with Stefon Diggs has gained plaudits from those watching the scrimmage alongside Marco Rubio and rapper Wale, and it looks like Daniels might finally have the WR2 he needs behind Terry McLaurin.
Frustratingly, head coach Dan Quinn didn’t detail who he’d play against the Dolphins on Friday, meaning we are very much in the dark about who’ll start under center or elsewhere. Quinn didn’t play Daniels in last year’s preseason opener against the Patriots, which is perhaps an indication that we might not see him this time around either.
The offensive line has seen criticism without injured duo Laremy Tunsil and Nick Allegretti, and depth is now starting to look like a real issue.
As for the defense, they dominated that scrimmage, but again, we’re unclear on how many will actually suit up come Friday.
Dolphins vs Commanders Prediction, Analysis
The Dolphins have one of the weaker rosters in the NFL, and we’re still not sure exactly what they have with Willis at quarterback, but we do know that he’ll be starting on Friday — information that we don’t have for Daniels and the Commanders.
With this being Hafley’s first game, he’s going to want to get off to a good start, whereas Quinn has traditionally put more stock in his final preseason game rather than his first, with a 1-6 record in Week 1 of the preseason and a 7-19 record overall.
Regardless of Daniels' status, you’d have to rate Marcus Mariota as a better backup than Ewers for the Dolphins, although given the injuries that the Commanders have on their offensive line and the stark lack of depth at tackle or center, it’s hard to look beyond the Dolphins winning.
The offensive line is the key to this matchup, and if Mariota, or indeed Athan Kaliakmanis or Sam Hartman, can’t get it going due to the lack of quality they have up front, then they won’t be able to beat the Dolphins, who will be playing starters for at least a small portion of this game.
Trade: Dolphins Moneyline (60%, Polymarket)
