Patriots vs Giants Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Betting Pick
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Patriots vs Giants Odds, Prediction
Patriots vs. Giants odds have New England installed as a 4-point favorites on the spread at most books on Sunday morning with a game total of 34, which is by far the lowest of Week 12. Our NFL pick for this matchup, though, is on the spread.
New York is coming off its best win of the year, beating Washington by multiple scores. The Patriots are back in action after their bye week. The last time we saw them they suffered a gut-wrenching loss to the Colts in Germany. New England's quarterback situation is the top story entering this game as the starter has yet to be named as of Saturday afternoon.
Does it matter if it's Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe starting against a bad Giants team? Find out in my New England-New York betting preview, which includes a Patriots vs. Giants prediction.
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The Patriots enter this week with a massive question: Who will play quarterback?
The last we saw New England, Mac Jones underthrew a potential go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. That duck of a pass led to Bailey Zappe entering the game, only to run a fake spike resulting in an interception. When it comes to arm talent, play style and production, no starter and backup are more similar than Jones and Zappe. Unfortunately, that is not a good thing in this case.
One thing the Patriots have going for them is the development of a rushing attack. Over their past five games, the Patriots have averaged 106 yards rushing — much better than the 84 yards they averaged in their first five games. Continuing their ground success will be key to support whichever quarterback is named the starter.
Defensively, New England has been better than the scoreboard indicates. The Patriots rank 23rd in points allowed per game, however, they are 11th in points and yards allowed per drive. The offense is the problem since it can't sustain drives and forces the defenders to play more and wear down throughout the game.
New England’s defense should have a big edge against the Giants. New England ranks second in yards per carry allowed while New York has the sixth-lowest pass rate over expected, per nfelo.
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The Giants are coming off their best win of the season, but it might be more of a fortunate moment than an indication of things to come. New York was outgained by 102 yards, forced six turnovers and Tommy Devito had a passer rating of 137.7. The only piece of last week's game I can see repeating is New York being outgained.
On the year, the Giants rank last in both yards and points per drive. Their rushing attack has been the stronger part of the offense, ranking 22nd in yards per carry. The passing attack is 31st in net yards per attempt.
Defensively, the Giants have not been much better. New York ranks 22nd in yards per drive allowed and 25th in points per drive allowed. The problem against New England will be the struggle to stop the run. New York ranks 30th in yards per carry allowed and has allowed at least 120 rushing yards in all but two games.
The matchups are set up strongly in the Patriots' favor. The Giants struggle to stop the run and New England’s blurry quarterback situation will have them leaning on the ground attack. While the Giants will look to run the ball into the strength of the Patriots' defense.
Beyond the schematic advantage, the Patriots are coming off a bye with an extra week to prepare. The Giants' defense is built on confusing quarterbacks with unique blitz packages. Additional prep time means those blitzes could go from positive defensive plays to potential big plays for the offense.
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