Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 12.
NFL Interception Props for Week 12
- Trevor Lawrence to Throw an Interception (-105; FanDuel)
- Kirk Cousins to Throw an Interception (-110; bet365)
Trevor Lawrence to Throw an Interception (-105)
Although the vibes are good in Jacksonville after a dominating win over the Chargers, I think some turnovers could be coming for the Jaguars and it starts with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He’s got eight interceptions this season with one in three straight games and facing a Cardinals defense that is a bit underrated.
The Cardinals have only six interceptions this season, but they still rank just inside the top 10 in total passes defended, which is when a defender is within range to make a play on the ball. To only have six interceptions is a bit of bad luck, which I think will turn in Arizona’s favor with Lawrence coming to town.
The funny thing about Lawrence is his turnover-worthy-play rate is about the same whether he’s pressured (9 TWP) or not (8 TWP) so it shouldn’t really matter if the Cardinals' defensive line can get to the quarterback for an interception to happen.
Another factor is throw rate with how well the Cardinals offense has been playing with QB Jacoby Brissett. They’ve been scoring against nearly every defense, which means the Jags will need to score points as well and can’t just park the bus and run the whole game.
Lawrence should see an uptick in pass attempts and with our Action Pro projections having him at 34 attempts, I like this bet even more.
Kirk Cousins to Throw an Interception (-110)
I know some people this week will take “No Interception” for Falcons QB Kirk Cousins to be a contrarian, but I would be scared to death to bet that.
Cousins has been nothing but a turnover machine since joining the Falcons; I’m betting on him to throw another interception in New Orleans in Week 12.
Full disclosure: this bet isn’t about the Saints defense. They haven’t been that good this year when it comes to interceptions. They only have five INTs on the season and are middle of the pack when it comes to total passes defended.
That being said, when Cousins is involved, the defense always gets a boost. Where the Saints are useful is they rank in the top 12 in pressure rate per dropback and top 11 in blitz rate.
Those are important because Cousins last year had 16 of his 24 turnover-worthy-plays against pressure and the blitz, with his lone TWP coming this season when blitzed. Before he was essentially banished for QB Michael Penix Jr. last season, Cousins threw nine interceptions in his final five starts.
This season, he had one start as an injury replacement and looked completely lost vs the Dolphins.
The Saints are going to try to get after him and force bad throws, and Cousins can usually fit that bill. And, for what it’s worth, Cousins threw an interception in both games vs the Saints last year.
