Lions vs Bills First Touchdown Scorer Props for TNF

Lions vs Bills Touchdown Scorer Picks

Dalton Kincaid First Touchdown

Dalton Kincaid looked every bit the "X-factor" Buffalo has waited three years for in Week 1. He hauled in 5-of-6 targets for 130 yards against Houston, including 35- and 40-yard gains, as new playcaller Joe Brady sent him downfield repeatedly with no linebacker or safety able to stay attached.

That's the scheme detail that matters here. Brady isn't using Kincaid as a traditional in-line tight end running underneath routes — he's deploying him like a big slot receiver who wins vertically, and Josh Allen has already anointed him a "stud" this week.

There's also a strong recency trend worth leaning on.

Kincaid opened last season with a touchdown catch on Buffalo's very first scripted drive against Baltimore, and this Bills coaching staff has a track record of scripting an early shot to its most trusted mismatch.

With Kincaid finally healthy after two seasons cut short by soft-tissue injuries, and Detroit's defense fresh off allowing 410 passing yards and three touchdowns to Tyler Shough and the Saints, the conditions are lined up for Allen to go back to the well early against a defense that just got shredded.

Sam LaPorta First Touchdown

Sam LaPorta's resume speaks for itself. He's one of only three tight ends in NFL history, alongside Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, to reach 125 catches and 15 touchdowns through his first two seasons, and his 17 receiving touchdowns since entering the league are tied for the most at the position.

Offensively, Ben Johnson may be gone to Chicago, but the scheme DNA he left behind with the Lions is still intact. Seam routes and option routes designed to put linebackers, not corners, on the ball remain central to how Detroit creates first-read touchdowns.

LaPorta looked fully healthy in his return from offseason back surgery in Week 1, playing 81% of Detroit's snaps and catching 5-of-8 targets for 48 yards.

Buffalo's defense will be locked in on stopping Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams near the goal line.  We've already seen Dalton Schultz, Marlin Klein, and Foster Moreau combine for 7 catches and 61 yards on a Bills defense preoccupied elsewhere last week.

That's exactly the space LaPorta has historically feasted in, and Jared Goff trusts him enough in the red zone to make him a live first-score threat even in a game expected to feature 50-plus points.

Khalil Shakir First Touchdown

Khalil Shakir isn't the eye-catching name in this Bills offense anymore with DJ Moore aboard, but that's precisely what makes him a live long shot for the first score.

Shakir is Allen's designed safety valve underneath while Moore and Kincaid occupy the defense over the top, and that role showed up immediately in Week 1 with four catches on six targets.

The number that jumps out is his red-zone target share, which spiked to 25.5% last season, up from 14.8% the year before. Even as his overall volume stayed modest, it shows the coaching staff trusts him in scoring position regardless of who else is drawing targets elsewhere on the field.

The matchup tilts things further in his favor. Detroit is missing both of its top safeties, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, which thins out exactly the kind of underneath, over-the-middle coverage that normally limits a slot receiver like Shakir.

Shakir profiles as a sneaky pick to punch one in first.