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Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Each week of the season, I’ll give my two favorites to throw a pick.
In 2025, my record was 20-16 for +7.5U. In 2024, I was able to finish at 19-17 for +4.2U, and part of the strategy is finding mispriced INT prices, especially at plus odds.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 3.
NFL Interception Props for Week 3
- Kyler Murray to Throw an Interception (-110; bet365)
- Geno Smith to Throw an Interception (-130; FanDuel)
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The Vikings had a fun little stint with Carson Wentz at quarterback, but they are going back to their “short king,” Kyler Murray, against the Buccaneers.
Yes, I do think Murray is a better QB than Wentz while also thinking Murray will throw an interception again when he gets back on the field.
The Buccaneers defense has had some bad luck through two games, trying and failing to overcome four lost fumbles in Week 1 and a fourth-quarter monsoon in Week 2. That’s part of the reason why they’re atop our NFL Luck Rankings entering Week 3 and should be in a good spot to bounce back.
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Now, it’s hard to judge Murray based on his first pass as a Viking (which was an interception), but it was telling how it happened.
It came when the Packers blitzed and got pressure in the backfield. This has been the trend with Murray over the years — his turnover-worthy-play rate would typically skyrocket compared to when he was kept clean or not blitzed.
This is where the Bucs come in — they have blitzed at a 40% rate through two games, which is third in the NFL.
Pick: Kyler Murray to Throw an Interception (-110 to -130; bet365)
It’s been a nice reunion for quarterback Geno Smith with the Jets.
A win in the opener and almost stealing a victory from the Packers. Now, he heads to Detroit to face a Lions defense that could pose some problems.
Smith may have been clean through two games, but it’s not like I’ll just forget what happened in 2025. I thought last year with the Raiders might have been a death sentence for his career after throwing 17 interceptions in 15 games (11-of-15 games overall, 73%). And that was after his final year as a Seahawk, when he had 15 interceptions (10-of-17 games, 59%).
Frankly, I’m kinda shocked Smith hasn’t thrown a pick yet, but then look at his opponents so far (Packers, Titans), and they both rank in the bottom half in blitz rate or pressure rate per dropback.
Even though the Lions have been ravaged in the secondary, they’ve still managed to generate a pass rush (26%, ranked 10th) while also ranking second in the NFL in blitz rate per dropback.
I also think the Jets could be put in a negative game script from the jump with how fast the Lions can score touchdowns, so New York could be in a heavy-pass game plan in the second half, resulting in a higher probability of an interception. I’d bet this to -125.
Pick: Geno Smith to Throw an Interception (bet to -125; FanDuel)
