NFL Week 3 Luck Rankings Dashboard: Edges for Games, INTs, Sacks, FGs, More

Welcome to the all-new Action Network NFL Luck Rankings dashboard!

This dashboard will be updated weekly throughout the NFL season to provide you a full look into many — but not all — of the luck elements that go into Action Network's Luck Rankings.

I say not all, because this Luck Dashboard is focused on the most common luck elements that are either:

1. Out of a team's control, or
2. Above or below the predictable level of a player or team's performance

For example, we can't expect a kicker to make every single kick forever. There's some natural kicking performance level that a kicker could exceed or fail to meet on any given week that depends on a plethora of factors.

So when I talk about kicking luck, I'm not just looking at opposing kicking luck, where a team has almost no control over whether the other team's kicker makes a kick, but also the kicker's own luck above or below his own performance level.

And this expected performance level can move as the kicker's performance level changes.

To get the most out of these dashboards, make sure you use the following features:

1. Dropdowns: Click on a team or table element and a dropdown will appear with a more in-depth breakdown
2. Backup mode: For teams that have had multiple QBs play so far this year, toggle backup mode on in the QB INT and QB Sack tables to see the backup QB's luck and projection should they become the starter that week.
3. WP/EP mode: WP mode is for win probability. Fumbles in high-leverage situations add or take away win probability more in late-game situations when it's close. But in terms of expected points — EP mode — it would be a similar number of expected points regardless of game situation.
4. Sorting: Click a column header to sort the table by that column's values
5. Night mode: Toggle night mode on or off both on mobile and desktop.
6. (NEW!) Over/Under percentages: For tabs with a projection (QB INT, QB sacks, Kickers), there are dropdowns to choose a market line over or under, and an associated percentage will display with it.
7. (NEW!) Hyperlinks: Click a team name to go to the team page, or in some of the clickable dropdowns there are hyperlinks to other pages in the dashboard.
8. (NEW!) Team colors: If you have a favorite NFL team, you can choose theme in the "theme" dropdown and click their helmet once to have the table header display in their colors. In dark mode, you can also click a second time for the full table, not just the headers, to display in their colors.
9. (NEW!) One dashboard: Instead of 9-10 separate tables, I've combined them all into one dashboard that you can navigate by clicking the tabs at the top.

Also, there are three new tabs this week.

1. Strength of Schedule (SOS): Strength of schedule played so far, as well as remaining. Notably, this also has a team's expected wins total and an over/under chances for each win total based off their own strength, as well as their opponent's strength using schedule-adjusted Expected Scores. These win totals are QB dependent since, for example, the Ravens starting Lamar Jackson will project for more wins than the Ravens starting Tyler Huntley. That means each QB has their own value to the spread. This is calculated as a Bayesian estimate from play-by-play data for each QB, with older seasons decaying in weight, and a draft position prior for small samples to use until the QB has enough game data.
2. Kickers: This is different from the "KICK" tab, which is kicking luck for and against a team on the team level. Instead, this is kicking luck for the kicker on a volume basis, weighed three points for a field goal and one point for an extra point, both adjusted for each kicker's individual expected make percentage. As an example, in Week 1 of 2026 the Giants attempted zero field goals despite putting together six drives that went deep in Cowboys territory. That meant kicker Dominic Zvada was unlucky to not have field-goal attempts, as those drives turned into four TDs, a turnover, and a half end and would display as unlucky volume. This tab also has my weekly kicker projections for extra points, field goals, and kicking points with associated over/unders on each.
3. Team: The team tab populates all the tabs into each team's own view. There's no new information on here that isn't available on any of the other tabs, but it is a one-stop-shop if you're interested in browsing a single team's data. The big highlight is the MATCHUP sub-tab which focuses on each team's game that week, but you can browse previous and future weeks as well. An example is below:

So here is the NFL Luck Rankings Dashboard for Week 3. I'm happy to receive any feedback about bugs, improvements, or things you'd like to see on it going forward!

NFL Luck Rankings Dashboard