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The third week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 3, including picks for Bengals vs. Steelers, Panthers vs Browns, and more.
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NFL Player Props — Week 3
- Bryce Young Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (+100, bet365)
Panthers vs Browns Player Prop: Bryce Young Rushing Yards
Bryce Young has stayed under this number both games this year and hasn't really looked to scramble much with just three total scrambles in two games. There also probably won't be a ton of need to scramble against this Cleveland defense.
Last year, QBs scrambled 13% less than they normally did when facing the Browns compared to all other teams, and this year so far it's been 30% less, with relatively mobile QBs Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield combining for three scrambles in two games against the Browns, all of them from Mayfield.
Since scrambles are the bulk of Young's rushing volume, it's likely he'll stay under 14.5 yards by just not needing to scramble so much. Plus, with the Panthers priced as favorites, there's a solid chance of a kneel down to slightly mitigate any positive yardage.
Per the Luck Rankings Dashboard, I'm projecting the following line for Young:
- 1.9 scrambles at 7.3 yards per carry
- 0.3 designed runs at 1.6 yards per carry
- 0.1 sneaks at 1.5 yards per carry
- 0.7 kneel downs at -1.1 yards per carry
That gives an average of 12.7 yards with a median of 10 yards and a 64.5% chance to stay under 14.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Bryce Young Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Bengals vs Steelers Player Prop: Aaron Rodgers Interceptions
In what was one of the unluckiest bad beats I've had in a while, Aaron Rodgers was picked off on his last passing attempt of the game last week when we took his under — and it wasn't his fault.
Rodgers threw a quick pass to Germie Bernard with no defender nearby, and Bernard had it in his hands. But Bernard tried to run before he fully caught it, popped the ball up in the air, and it went right to a Patriots player.
That's Rodgers lone interception on the season, and it didn't even come off a turnover worthy play.
Rodgers is still elite at protecting the ball on his throws, with just nine interceptions in 19 games as a Steeler — and thanks to multi-interception games, Rodgers has actually thrown zero interceptions in six of those 19 games for a 68.4% rate of staying under 0.5 picks.
The Bengals matchup is right around league average, so projecting Rodgers for under half an interception makes a lot of sense here, despite potentially higher passing volume.
I'm going back to the well as long as books will give us anywhere near even-money on this prop.
Picks: Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (+100, bet365)
Dr Nick's Week 3 Prop Bets
- Bryce Young Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (+100, bet365)
