If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Week 3 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in a total of five NFL prop bets and a parlay for Sunday featuring picks for Chargers vs. Bills, Patriots vs. Jaguars, Panthers vs. Browns, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 3 player props for Sunday, September 27.
NFL Player Props Week 3
- Raheim Sanders Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- James Cook Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-109, DraftKings)
- Dalton Schultz Under 5.5 Receptions (-123, DraftKings)
- Quincy Williams/Alohi Gilman Tackles + Assists Parlay (+300, DraftKings)
Raheim Sanders Rushing Yards
I’m projecting Cleveland for a lot more rushing volume in a game where they should spend more time in neutral or even positive game script against a Carolina defense that has been much easier to attack on the ground.
Quinshon Judkins obviously benefits, too, but Raheim Sanders is the sneakier angle because he’s even more of an inside runner, short-yardage grinder, and that’s exactly where the Panthers have been getting gashed.
Devin Lloyd being out only helps. I don’t expect Sanders to even play on the first couple drives, so this is more of a “let the game come to him” prop.
If Cleveland keeps this close or plays with the lead, I think the snaps and carries show up later.
I have him closer to 10.5 rushing yards with around a 60% chance to clear 7.5.
Pick: Raheim Sanders Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Download the Action Network app now for more picks and analysis!
James Cook Receiving Yards
This is kind of a weird buy-low spot for James Cook’s receiving market. He entered the NFL with more of a pass-catching profile, but that obviously isn’t his main role anymore as Buffalo’s lead back and the reigning rushing champ.
Still, the underlying usage has actually been pretty solid.
Cook has caught just 4-of-7 targets, a 57% catch rate that’s roughly 22% below expected — and because I’m not just blindly trusting the math here, I went back and watched all seven targets. He could easily have 1-2 more receptions this year and way more receiving production that game log watchers aren't going to see.
I prefer Over 10.5 yards as opposed to paying heavy juice on Over 1.5 receptions because Cook usually makes his catches count at 8+ yards per grab. He can clear this on one play, but I think 2-3 catches is more likely than the market suggests.
I have his median closer to 15.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to clear 10.5.
Pick: James Cook Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards
Every time it looks like TreVeyon Henderson might finally be cutting into Rhamondre Stevenson's role because of better play or another fumble, we always get burned.
I joked last year that maybe Stevenson had blackmail on Mike Vrabel. Maybe that situation has changed a bit …
Stevenson has basically operated near the ceiling of his role for most of the last two seasons, even in Week 1 when Henderson was out. Now, Henderson looks fully healthy after the ankle injury, is entering Year 2, and saw his playing time increase after Stevenson’s fumble last week.
I think there are finally enough red flags to gamble on something closer to a 50/50 playing-time split, with Stevenson still handling more of the passing-down work.
That matters because New England is a 3-point road 'dog, giving them a better chance of playing from behind and lowering the overall rushing volume.
Stevenson also runs inside at one of the highest rates in the league, which plays directly into the strength of Jacksonville’s run defense. So, even if he gets a couple more carries than I’m expecting, I still think the efficiency could be ugly.
I have him closer to 33.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to stay under 37.5. There are just a lot more paths to a floor game than a ceiling game here.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-109, DraftKings)
Dalton Schultz Receptions
This is a nice sell-high spot after Dalton Schultz went nuclear for 12/140/0 last week. I can’t imagine many people are lining up to bet his under now, which is part of why I like it.
He’s still going to be one of C.J. Stroud’s top targets with Nico Collins out, but the matchup is much different.
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been using man coverage at one of the highest rates through two weeks, and Schultz has historically been much better against zone. Last year, he had a 24% target rate with an 87% catch rate vs. zone, compared to just 17% target rate and 59% catch rate vs. man.
Houston also had the perfect environment for him last week. The Texans have been trailing far more than usual despite having one of the league’s best defenses, and Cincinnati has been a dream matchup for TEs.
I’m expecting a more neutral/positive game script here, more rushing volume, and potentially more heavy TE personnel. That matters because Schultz’s playing time in 12-personnel has already dipped quite a bit.
So, even if he remains Houston’s top pass catcher, I think the route volume and efficiency both come down. I have him closer to 5.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.
Pretty classic sell-high spot after a monster box score, and you know the public is going to want the over.
Pick: Dalton Schultz Under 5.5 Receptions (-123, DraftKings)
Tackles + Assists Parlay
- Quincy Williams Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-109)
- Alohi Gilman Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (+109)
I logged these picks originally as a two-way parlay, and then I added them both as individual picks.
Doing it this way the last time seemed to keep the individual numbers from getting nuked immediately, and it gave more people a chance to get on them.
I did a pretty deep dive on both of these props and found a ton of reasons to like each under. I even like both enough after what I expect could be pretty significant line movement.
For now, I'm taking the +300 parlay and then playing both of these picks individually.
Pick: +300 Parlay
