Raiders vs. Bengals Odds, Predictions, Picks: Cincinnati Poised To Bounce Back With NFL Week 11 Win
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Burrow.
Raiders vs. Bengals Odds
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Both the Bengals and Raiders are in the hunt for an AFC playoff spot. The problem is that you wouldn’t know it by the way each team has played in its last two games.
In addition to both teams coming into this matchup on a two-game losing streak, each suffered a loss on the road to one of the New York teams.
Furthermore, both teams gave up 41 points in blowout losses the last time they were on the field, and both remain neck-and-neck for the final wild-card spot with identical 5-4 records.
These two teams couldn’t be any closer, as my power ratings have Cincinnati 22nd and Las Vegas 23rd in the league.
Based on their recent abhorrent performances, I can only conclude that both teams’ 5-2 starts this season were nothing more than a mirage. At the same time, while I don’t particularly love either side in this game, there’s one team I absolutely would not dare go near.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Bengals vs. Raiders Injury Report
- WR Auden Tate (thigh): Questionable
- DT Tyler Shelvin (knee): Questionable
- CB Keisean Nixon (ankle/foot): Out
- LB Nick Kwiatkoski (ankle): Out
- FB Alec Ingold (knee): Out
- RB Jalen Richard (ribs): Questionable
- CB Brandon Facyson (finger/hamstring): Questionable
Bengals vs. Raiders Matchup
|Bengals Offense||DVOA Rank||Raiders Defense|
|Bengals Defense||DVOA Rank||Raiders Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Time For Bengals To Worry?
I remember plenty of pundits gushing over the former Heisman winner, Joe Burrow, in Week 7 after he threw for 416 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-17 road victory over the Ravens. Since then, the Bengals gave up 34 points and 405 passing yards to a Jets backup quarterback who had never thrown an NFL pass during the regular season before the game.
Cincinnati followed that by imploding with three turnovers against the Browns in a 41-16 loss. The problem is that those losses seem to wipe out any goodwill that Cincinnati achieved this season.
Before those games, both of the Bengals losses were by a combined six points, one of which was due to their kicker missing multiple late field goals against the Packers.
I was ready to lay all the blame at the feet of Burrow, given that he has a Total QBR average of 23.6 over the last two games. But if you take a closer look, you’ll find that he’s instead played exceptionally well.
Per rbdsm.com, Burrow is ninth in the league in the composite score of expected points added (EPA) + completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). Cincinnati is also in the top half of the company with 361.4 yards per game, seventh in red-zone touchdown conversion and fourth with 6.0 yards per play.
The biggest knock I can find on the Bengals offense is that it’s only getting into the red zone 2.7 times per game, which is 25th in the NFL. Cincinnati also ranks 24th with a -0.4 turnover margin, which has to improve.
I wouldn’t panic just yet if you’re a Bengals fan. A Week 10 bye likely came in the nick of time, allowing them to start the second half of the season well.
Raiders Struggling After Eventful Spell
I’m not sure I can recall a team that’s had to deal with more turmoil in a season than the Las Vegas Raiders. Not only was their head coach forced to resign, but then wide receiver Henry Ruggs III was arrested on four felony charges following a fatal car crash.
Then, the Raiders released cornerback Damon Arnette after an Instagram video surfaced with him waving several guns and threatening someone. Las Vegas’ two first-round picks in 2020 were Ruggs and Arnette.
The loss of Gruden is something the team could always overcome, but losing two first-round picks inside a span of a week is impossible to recover from.
Ruggs served as a downfield threat for the Raiders and still has the longest reception (61 yards) of any player on their team this season. According to The Athletic’s Vic Tafur, the loss of Ruggs has allowed Raiders opponents to focus on stopping their other offensive weapon: tight end Darren Waller.
While the Raiders were able to rally as a team with back-to-back wins following Gruden’s departure, they’ve failed to generate the same response after the release of Ruggs. Vegas has scored just 30 points in its last two games.
Usually, I’m a heavy proponent of really digging into the stats. But in this case, I don’t think it’s all that necessary to see that the Raiders are lacking in terms of personnel on the field. At the moment, there’s too much uncertainty surrounding Las Vegas, and players must be scratching their heads how it’s come to this after a 5-2 start.
NFL Pick: Bengals vs. Raiders
My approach to this game is more so from a modeling perspective. I use three different models to make my numbers: One has the Bengals as a pick’em, another as a 1.5-point favorite and the last as a 2.5-point favorite.
In this matchup, I initially didn’t fancy either side, but the Bengals should benefit from a bye in Week 10. What I can tell you unequivocally is that I want no part of the drama that’s circling over the Raiders at the moment.
But here’s the real kicker for me. Favorites off a bye with an additional week of rest over their opponents are 116-84-5 for 26.64 units of profit.
That’s it. That’s the handicap in a nutshell.
Cincinnati is a one-point favorite, so look to play their moneyline to -118.
Pick: Bengals ML -112 | Bet to Bengals ML -118
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