Bucs vs. Washington Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: How To Bet On Huge Offensive Output For Tampa Bay In Week 10

Bucs vs. Washington Odds

Tom Brady and the Bucs travel to Washington in Week 10.

Tampa Bay lost its Week 8 contest against the Saints before heading into a bye and will be looking to rebound with an extra week to prepare. Meanwhile, the scuffling Football Team is 2-6 on the season.

Books have the Bucs as 9.5-point road favorites in this one, but can Washington keep it close?

Bucs vs. Washington Matchup

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Bucs Offense Thriving With Aerial Attack

Tampa Bay has fully committed to passing the ball this year. The Bucs rank first in both passing rate and points per game on the season. (Note to NFL coaching staffs — those things aren't unrelated.) Of course, it's easy to play that way when you have the best quarterback of all time playing at an MVP level. (Brady is tied with Josh Allen as the MVP frontrunner at +350.)

In addition to Brady, the Bucs offensive line has played at an elite level this year. That unit ranks second in both adjusted line yards (a measure of rushing efficiency) and adjusted sack rate. Keeping the pocket clean for the immobile 44-year-old Brady is crucial, and that will especially be the case against a Washington defense that has snuck back into the top 12 in sacks per game. The Football Team is tied for second over its past three games after struggling to start the year.

Defensively, the Bucs are one of the starkest pass funnels in the NFL. The only team that passes the ball more than the Bucs is … whoever the Bucs are playing. Tampa has faced a 68% pass play rate, highest in the league. Its pass defense (despite a depleted secondary) is solid though, ranking 10th in the league in DVOA.

Normally, incentivizing opponents to pass is suboptimal in today's NFL. As the Bucs themselves show on a weekly basis, throwing the ball is a far more efficient way to score points. However, it might not be so bad against a Washington team that ranks 23rd in yards per pass attempt.

Washington's Defense Needs To Step Up

The story of the Football Team's struggles this season has been the defense, particularly the pass defense.

In 2020, Washington had the No. 3 overall defense by DVOA, ranking second against the pass. That team would match up well with the Bucs. This year though, they're 31st against the pass. Not great for this matchup.

The Football Team has remained solid against the run defensively, but as we've discussed above, that's fairly irrelevant against Tampa. The Bucs don't run the ball in good matchups, and much less against terrible pass defenses.

Unless the Washington pass rush can get to Brady early and often, they'll be struggling to contain Tampa this week.

Offensively, Washington isn't bringing much to the table. Taylor Heinicke has been serviceable under center, but Washington is still scoring less than 20 points per game on the season. The Football Team was surely hoping to get a lot more from its run game, but mediocre offensive line play (13th in adjusted line yards) and a lack of explosiveness from Antonio Gibson (no runs over 20 yards since Week 1) have limited the unit's effectiveness.

The passing offense is slightly better, but extremely limited beyond Terry McLaurin. Third-round rookie Dyami Brown has only 81 yards in five games this season, and starting tight end Logan Thomas has been out since Week 5.  With only one legitimate passing threat, teams have been able to key in on McLaurin.

NFL Pick: Bucs vs. Washington

Three times this year, Tampa Bay has played against bottom-10 defenses by DVOA. In those three games, they've averaged over 40 points, with a low of 28.  Tampa has been favored by at least nine points four times this year — they've averaged over 40 points in those games, too (with a low of 31). Both of those scenarios are at play here.

Unlike many teams, the Bucs don't let up and run out the clock, they keep passing regardless of the score. Thus, we can confidently bet on their team total without fear of a blowout suppressing it.  I like the Bucs' alternate total of over 34.5 on BetMGM. It's currently +155, which implies a sub-40% probability.

Make sure Chris Godwin is good to go before making this bet though. Tampa has shown an ability to function offensively down one of their three starting wideouts, but losing two might be too much to overcome.

Pick: Bucs Team Total Over 34.5 | Bet to: +150