Eagles vs. Jets Odds, Predictions, Picks For NFL Week 13: Points Could Be Tough To Come By This Sunday
Al Pereira/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson.
- The Jets and Eagles are likely to keep the ball on the ground, but will it be enough to hit the under?
- Our analyst examines the Eagles vs. Jets odds in order to make his predictions and picks below.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Parx. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
After suffering a tough divisional loss on the road last week to the New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles look to get things back on track when they head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.
The Eagles (5-7) failed to get anything substantial going on offense, scoring just seven points against the Giants, before eventually falling victim to a 13-7 loss. The Jets (3-8), meanwhile, are flying high after a strong performance from their rushing attack that produced a 21-14 road win last week against the Houston Texans.
In a game between two struggling offenses that haven’t quite found their stride this season, should we be looking toward the total for value in this Week 13 matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Eagles vs. Jets Injury Report
- RB Jordan Howard (knee): Out
- QB Jalen Hurts (ankle): Questionable
- RB Boston Scott (illness): Questionable
- DL Sheldon Rankins (knee): Doubtful
- TE Trevon Wesco (ankle): Doubtful
- WR Corey Davis (groin): Questionable
- DL Folorunso Fatukasi (back): Questionable
- DL John Franklin-Myers (hip): Questionable
- T Morgan Moses (knee): Questionable
- LB Quincy Williams (calf): Questionable
Eagles vs. Jets Matchup
|Eagles Offense||DVOA Rank||Jets Defense|
|Eagles Defense||DVOA Rank||Jets Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Eagles Run Game Continues to Plow Ahead
Last week’s three-interception performance was more of an outlier for quarterback Jalen Hurts and less an indication as to the way he’s been performing in his first full season as the starter in Philadelphia. Through 12 games, Hurts has completed 60% of his passes for 2,435 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air.
He’s also been stellar on the ground, accounting for 695 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in that same span, trailing Lamar Jackson by just 12 yards for the lead at the quarterback position this year. In fact, he’s been so good that his 86.6 PFF Run Rating would rank sixth if he were ranked with the half backs in PFF’s rankings. While Hurts is currently listed as questionable, he has said that he’ll be playing.
This week, he’ll get a strong draw against a Jets defense that currently ranks dead last in Total DVOA, 32nd in Pass DVOA and 31st against the run. While Hurts should find open passing lanes throughout the day, the winning formula for the Eagles this year has been on the ground. They’ll likely find little resistance against a porous unit that will also be without edge rusher Carl Lawson and safeties Marcus Maye and Lamarcus Joyner.
The Eagles’ running game has been firing on all cylinders of late, averaging 216 yards per game over their last five. With Boston Scott questionable and Jordan Howard already ruled out, that will mean a heavy dose of Hurts and Miles Sanders. Sanders has been extraordinarily efficient, averaging 6.3 yards per carry over the past two weeks.
Jets Must Cut Down on Turnovers
While rookie Zach Wilson didn’t have his best day as a pro last week, completing just 58% of his passes for 145 yards, he was able to limit his mistakes and manage the game sufficiently to lead his team to victory. The winning formula last week was to rely heavily on the run (the team rushed 34 times compared to just 24 pass attempts), something we should expect to see again here against this 16th-ranked Eagles rush defense.
With rookie Michael Carter on injured reserve with an ankle injury, the Jets will once again rely on a tandem of Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson to split rushing duties. Coleman saw the bulk of the carries last week — 16 compared to just seven for Johnson — but with Johnson averaging 7.1 yards per carry (compared to just 4.2 for Coleman), it’s possible that ratio is closer to 60/40 in this contest.
If the Jets are going to find success here, however, they’ll need to get the turnovers in check. Through 11 games, they lead the NFL with 24 giveaways, with Wilson accounting for 10 of those via interceptions. They’ll also need to try and force them on the other end. Even despite the outlier performance from Hurts last week, the Eagles’ 13 giveaways this year are tied for the eighth-fewest in the league.
Eagles vs. Jets Predictions, Picks
In a game where both teams will likely look to run the ball extensively against opposing rush defenses that haven’t been particularly stout thus far, it’s fair to expect long, time-consuming drives from both offenses in this one.
While the Jets defense is particularly susceptible against the run, neither team has been overly efficient when it comes to red-zone touchdown scoring lately. In fact, the Eagles have been scoring touchdowns on just 44.4% of their red-zone possessions over the last three games, while the Jets have been doing so at just a 50% clip. Both of those rank among the worst in the league over that span.
Given the projected game script and the recent red zone touchdown efficiency we’ve see from both offenses, we have a strong recipe for the under in this Week 13 matchup. While DraftKings has the total at 44.5 at the time of writing, you can still grab it at under 45 on FanDuel (check real-time NFL odds here).
I’m comfortable playing this at either number, and I will be playing this one down to 44 if the total continues to drop prior to kickoff.
Pick: Under 45 | Bet to: Under 44
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