Giants vs. Chargers Odds, Predictions, Picks: How To Find Value on Justin Herbert and Co. In NFL Week 14
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert.
- Based on the latest Giants vs. Chargers odds, where's the betting value on this NFL Week 14 matchup?
- Our analyst breaks down his predictions and picks below.
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
In Week 14, the New York Giants head west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams are dealing with multiple injuries as the Giants will be without two starters on offense in quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Kadarius Toney.
If we turn to the Chargers, they have two starting receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who are on the injury report due to COVID-19 protocols. While Allen has been ruled out, Williams has tested negative throughout the week and could still play.
Thus, with the Chargers available anywhere from an 8.5- to a 9.5-point favorite, having the correct information is extremely vital to our handicap.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Giants vs. Chargers Injury Report
- QB Daniel Jones (neck): Out
- WR Kadarius Toney (oblique): Out
- CB Adoree’ Jackson (quad): Out
- WR Kenny Golladay (rib): Questionable
- WR Sterling Shepard (quad): Questionable
- DL Danny Shelton (calf): Questionable
- CB Asante Samuel Jr. (concussion): Out
- S Alohi Gilman QB (quad): Out
- OLB Kyler Fackrell (knee): Out
- WR Keenan Allen (COVID protocols): Out
- DL Justin Jones (ankle): Questionable
- WR Mike Williams (COVID protocols): Questionable
- CB Chris Harris (COVID protocols): Questionable
Giants vs. Chargers Matchup
|Giants Offense||DVOA Rank||Chargers Defense|
|Giants Defense||DVOA Rank||Chargers Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Giants Downgraded by Glennon
With Jones still battling a neck injury that ruled him out last week, the Giants will turn to Mike Glennon again for the start.
If you compare the two quarterbacks, there’s certainly a dip in quality since Glennon isn’t a dual-threat to run the football like Jones. Moreover, if we use ESPN’s Total QBR metric, Glennon’s 21.0 rating is almost half Jones’s (40.9).
Glennon also appeared against the Cowboys earlier this season after Jones was injured early on. The Giants have lost both games he’s appeared in this season by double digits.
Glennon won’t have Toney to throw to, although both Kenny Golladay and Sterling Sheppard are questionable and likely to play.
Per TeamRankings, New York ranks 28th with an average of just 17.6 points per game, and that’s down to 10.7 over their last three contests. Furthermore, the Giants rank 30th with an explosive play rate of 8%. Based on those numbers, it’s clear New York can’t get behind opposing defenses, and when the Giants get inside the red zone, they’re even worse.
The Giants rank last in red-zone touchdown conversion (41.94%). That number is also down to 33.33% over their previous three games. If we look at time of possession, New York is also 27th (28:31) in that category.
Although the Giants defense is 13th in DVOA, at some point, you have to be a bit worried about fatigue setting in.
Chargers Should Thrive vs. Inferior Opposition
The Chargers have been a bit of an enigma this season after a 4-1 start. They’re 3-4 in their last seven games and haven’t won back-to-back games since Week 5.
That doesn’t sound much like the profile of a team that’s ranked second in offensive DVOA. We saw a bit of what this Chargers offense can do last week when they put up 41 on the road against the Bengals. However, Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses in their past five games.
One thing that bodes well for the Chargers is that their losses have come against decent teams. The Vikings have the lowest winning percentage (.462) of any team that beat them this season, and you could easily say that the Vikings are a few bounces away from a record that’s above .500 since five of their seven losses have been by a combined margin of 13 points.
I think the quality of the opponent is critical in this game, especially if you’re trying to make a case for the Chargers avoiding a possible letdown spot.
Realistically, for the Giants to have a chance, Los Angeles likely would have to be without both Allen and Williams, which seems unlikely to be the case. I just don’t get the sense that Williams is going to miss out on this one.
Giants vs. Chargers Predictions, Picks
I’m pretty convinced that I don’t want to go near the Giants on any level in this game. However, if you’re looking to back the Chargers, you’ll want to be sure that Williams is in fact going to be active. The worry is that the point spread might be even higher if both Allen and Williams miss out.
As a result, I prefer to get ahead of the line, so I’ll look to play the Chargers as part of a seven-point two-team teaser. DraftKings is currently offering them at -8.5. I think they’re a good pairing with the Falcons, who are +3 underdogs on the road against the Panthers.
Our final ticket on a seven-point teaser will reflect the Chargers at -1.5 and the Falcons at +10.
Pick: Two-Team Seven-Point Teaser (-135): Chargers -1.5 and Falcons +10
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