Jets vs. Texans Odds, Picks, Predictions For NFL Week 12: Can Houston Really Cover As A Favorite?
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyrod Taylor.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
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After suffering their third consecutive loss last week at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets hope to rebound when they head to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon.
The Jets (2-8) kept the game within one score last time out against the Dolphins, before ultimately falling short in a 24-17 loss at home. The Texans (2-8), meanwhile, are coming off a surprising 22-13 victory against the AFC-leading Tennessee Titans last week on the road.
With momentum on their side, should we be looking for the Texans to make it two in a row in this Week 12 AFC matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jets vs. Texans Injury Report
- RB Michael Carter (ankle): Out
- WR Corey Davis (groin): Questionable
- DL John Franklin-Myers (hip): Questionable
- DL Nathan Shepherd (elbow): Questionable
- DL Shaq Lawson (wrist): Questionable
- DL Folorunso Fatukasi (foot): Questionable
- LB C.J. Mosley (shoulder): Questionable
- DB Lonnie Johnson (illness): Questionable
- DL Jonathan Greenard (foot): Questionable
- WR Nico Collins (hip): Questionable
- WR Davoin Davis (illness): Questionable
Jets vs. Texans Matchup
|Jets Offense||DVOA Rank||Texans Defense|
|Jets Defense||DVOA Rank||Texans Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Jets Ready for Zach Wilson’s Return
Rookie Zach Wilson will return following a four-game absence due to a knee injury in what will amount to his seventh start of the season. His first stint in New York has been a struggle, to say the least. He’s accumulated just 1,168 passing yards and four touchdowns thus far and has struggled with turnovers, accounting for nine interceptions.
This week’s matchup won’t make things much easier. He’ll face off against a Texans defense that ranks 10th in Total DVOA, sixth against the pass and has allowed just 30 points total over Houston’s last two outings. The Jets have also struggled to score points with Wilson at the helm, averaging just 13.3 points per game in such situations.
If the Jets are going to find success in this one, it will come via the rush. With rookie Michael Carter out with an ankle injury, the Jets will rely on a tandem of Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson to carry the load. While neither has found much success this season (Coleman is averaging 3.9 yards per attempt; Johnson just 3.4), they’ll be facing off against a Texans rush defense that currently ranks 23rd among all teams.
Texans Offense Led by Dual-Threat Tyrod Taylor
The Texans will look to keep the momentum moving in their favor this week in a plus matchup against a struggling Jets team at home. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is the key to this offense that showed signs of life last week in their upset victory over the Titans. While he only completed 58% of his passes for 124 yards, he was a difference maker on the ground with 28 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Taylor will have an opportunity to improve in both aspects of his game against a Jets defense that currently ranks dead last in Total DVOA and Pass DVOA, as well as 31st against the run. In the passing game, top option Brandin Cooks will be in line for a big day if Taylor can deliver him the ball safely. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Cooks will have a 66.7 overall matchup advantage against his primary defenders in this one and an 88.8 advantage against cornerback Isaiah Dunn, whom he is expected to see on at least 35% of his snaps.
The Texans will likely look to set up the pass with a heavy dose of the run given the added element Taylor provides as a rushing quarterback. I expect an approach similar to what they employed last week, which saw a 62% to 38% split in favor of the run in a format that resulted in a victory against a far superior opponent. Given the fact the Jets are at the bottom of the league in this category, I expect Houston will be effective again with this game plan here.
Jets vs. Texans Prediction
While neither team has found a great deal of success so far this season, this Texans team possesses a sizable advantage on the defensive side of the ball and seems to have found a formula on offense that even a playoff-bound (albeit injury-riddled) Titans team had trouble stopping last week.
The Jets have had a multitude of problems scoring points this season, but even more so with Wilson at the helm. While he still has time to develop into the quarterback the Jets hoped for when they took him with the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, there’s nothing to suggest that it will begin this week against the Texans.
I’m expecting this superior Texans defense to limit the Jets offense throughout the day, and for Houston to be able to muster enough offense against New York’s bottom-ranked defense to pull out a sizable enough victory here. With the point spread at just 2.5 heading into Sunday, there is still certainly value on the Texans here.
I’m taking this at the current line of -2.5 and would prefer to play this at -3 or below. I believe this game will be settled by more than just a field goal, so I would play it up to -4 as well if the line continues to tick upwards prior to kickoff.
Pick: Texans -2.5 | Bet to: Texans -4
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