Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds, Predictions, Picks: Find Betting Value By Teasing Kansas City In NFL Week 14
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
- The Chiefs have covered in their last three games, but our analyst isn't running to the betting window to lay 9.5 points with them against the Raiders.
- Based on the latest Raiders vs. Chiefs odds, find out how he's finding betting value on this NFL Week 14 matchup.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
On Sunday, the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs will meet for the second time in three weeks. One team looks destined for a playoff run, while the other is just trying to stay in the hunt.
At the beginning of the season, the Raiders were flying high with a 3-0 start while the Chiefs started 1-2. Now, Kansas City has won five straight games to improve to 8-4 and Las Vegas has recorded just one win during that span.
Interestingly enough, it’s been the Chiefs defense that has carried them during this recent run. As for the Raiders, they’ve had to deal with all kinds of issues, from the resignation of their head coach to releasing their two 2020 first-round draft picks.
In its last five games, Las Vegas scored more than 16 points just once, and that was on Thanksgiving in a 36-33 win over the Cowboys. That game now looks more like an anomaly, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Raiders struggle to score points yet again.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Raiders vs. Chiefs Injury Report
- TE Darren Waller (knee/back): Out
- DE Carl Nassib (knee): Out
- LB Patrick Onwuasor (hamstring): Out
- LB Denzel Perryman (ankle): Out
- CB Chris Lammons (ankle): Out
- CB Rashad Fenton (knee): Questionable
- OL Lucas Niang (ribs): Questionable
Raiders vs. Chiefs Matchup
|Raiders Offense||DVOA Rank||Chiefs Defense|
|Raiders Defense||DVOA Rank||Chiefs Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Raiders Offense Can’t Get Going
The injury report is a concern for the Raiders as they’ll be without Darren Waller for the second straight week. Entering Week 13, Waller was the team’s most-targeted player until wide receiver Hunter Renfrow got the bulk of the targets with 10.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of game plan the Raiders put together on Sunday. Do they go toe to toe with the Chiefs offense or try to slow the game down by running the football? The reality is that neither option looks entirely promising at the moment.
For one, Las Vegas is essentially down two quality pass-catchers from the start of the season with Waller out and Henry Ruggs III released.
In terms of running the ball, Las Vegas ranks 27th with a run play rate of 36.60%. Call me crazy, but something tells me it might be too late in the season for this leopard to try to change its spots.
Waller will undoubtedly be missed if the Raiders manage even to get a whiff of the red zone. Per TeamRankings, Las Vegas is tied for 29th (50%) in touchdown conversions inside the 20-yard line. It’ll be up against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the second-fewest red-zone touchdowns (28.57%) over the past three weeks.
Chiefs Defense Prides Itself on Pressure
It might be sacrilegious to say this, but this Chiefs defense reminds me a bit of the Giants unit that went on to defeat the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.
It’s not that far-fetched when you think about how the Chiefs prioritize getting pressure on the opposing teams’ quarterbacks. If you recall that season, you’ll know that the common thread between the two teams is, of course, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who held that position in two tours with the Giants.
It might surprise you, but Kansas City’s defense ranks second in the league in quarterback hurries (14.7%). Moreover, the Chiefs are in the top 10 of quite a few advanced defensive metrics:
- Third in quarterback pressure, 28.4%.
- Eighth with a blitz rate of 29.3%.
- Tenth with a quarterback knockdown rate of 10.3%.
While sacks are often the result of a good pass rush, they’re not always necessary to make a quarterback feel uncomfortable. Today’s defensive stats are a bit more advanced than when Spagnuolo first joined the Giants in 2007. According to Pro-Football-Reference, his defense finished second that year in quarterback hits (103).
Unfortunately, the advanced metrics weren’t available in 2007 to thoroughly compare to Spagnuolo’s ’21 defense. However, I’ve got a hunch that both teams would be somewhat similar in terms of their pass rush.
Per Next Gen Stats, Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr ranks 22nd in time to throw with 2.8 seconds per pass attempt. If he spends that much time in the pocket on Sunday, that could spell trouble against this Kansas City pass defense.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Predictions, Picks
While it’s rare that I’m ever at a loss for words, sometimes when a handicap is this straightforward, it’s best to keep it simple and not overthink things.
There’s been a lot of talk about the Chiefs’ struggles to cover point spreads. However, they’ve done so in each of their last three games. That doesn’t mean I’m necessarily running to the betting window to lay 9.5 points with them.
This is a week where I think the Chiefs make an excellent teaser option. Unfortunately, the current point spread is too high to consider a Wong six-point teaser. As a result, I’ll look to play the Chiefs on a two-team seven-point teaser (-135) and pair them with the Seahawks at -1.5.
Lastly, I’m bearish on the ability of this Las Vegas offense to put some points on the board. BetMGM offers team total odds, and I would play the Raiders under 19.5 at -135 odds.
Pick: Two-Team Seven-Point Teaser (-135): Chiefs -2.5 and Seahawks -1.5
Bonus Pick: Raiders Team Total Under 19.5 (-135, 0.5 units)
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