Seahawks-Packers Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: Bet Over/Under In Aaron Rodgers & Russell Wilson’s Return
Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers (left to right)
- The line for this game opened at Packers -5.5 before falling to -3 at most books as of Sunday afternoon with news both star QBs would be back in action.
- Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are back for Week 10, but there are far more scenarios in which this game is a slog than a shootout.
|Time||4:25 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The quarterback situation will be the story of Seahawks vs. Packers.
After Aaron Rodgers missed last week’s matchup with the Chiefs due to COVID-19, he is good to go after being activated on Saturday. On the other side, Russell Wilson is also set to return after missing the last three weeks with a hand injury.
Both teams have struggled offensively without their star quarterbacks, so their availability is key in this one.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Seahawks vs. Packers Injury Report
- QB Russel Wilson (hand): Set to return
- S Marquise Blair (knee): Out
- CB Bless Austin (personal matter): Out
- LB Cody Barton (quadricep): Out
- DT Al Woods (NIR): Questionable
- QB Aaron Rodgers (COVID): Activated to return
- OT David Bakhtiari (knee): Doubtful
- TE Dominique Dafney (hamstring): Doubtful
- DL Kingsley Keke (concussion): Doubtful
- DT Kenny Clark (back): Questionable
- WR Equanimeous St. Brown (ankle): Questionable
- CB Eric Stokes (knee): Questionable
Seahawks vs. Packers Matchup
|Seahawks Offense||DVOA Rank||Packers Defense|
|Seahawks Defense||DVOA Rank||Packers Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Seahawks Need Wilson to Compete With Elite
Seattle has sorely missed Wilson the past three weeks. In games with Wilson fully healthy, the Seahawks have averaged just under 26 points per game. With Geno Smith at the helm, that number is just over 20.
The 3-5 Seahawks need to have an impressive second half of the season to have any shot at a playoff berth, and that starts now with the return of their star quarterback.
Despite having one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league, Seattle has returned to being a run-first team this year, ranking 25th in pass play rate in the NFL. While some of that is dragged down by the absence of Wilson, he was only attempting 27.25 passes in games that he was fully healthy.
Expect that trend to continue this week. Green Bay is more easily attacked on the ground, and Wilson is likely to be less than 100% after his remarkably speedy return from a finger injury. Seattle will be without starting running back Chris Carson, though, although his return sounds like it’s pretty close.
Of course, that style of play relies on a defense that can get off the field and limit opponent scoring. Seattle has been fine in that regard, allowing the eighth-fewest points per game in the NFL. However, they rank 24th against the pass and 11th against the run in DVOA. Against a Rodgers-led offense, we’d prefer to see those numbers flipped.
Healthy Rodgers Enables Packers Offense
Like the Seahawks, the Packers offense was severely limited without its starting quarterback.
While it was only one game, Green Bay scored a mere seven points against the Chiefs’ 31st-ranked defense entering the game. Removing their strange Week 1 performance against the Saints and last week without Rodgers, the Packers are averaging 27 points per game.
Also like the Seahawks, the Packers are leaning toward a run-first attack this season. Green Bay ranks 19th in pass play rate on the year, despite being slightly more efficient throwing the ball than running it. I suspect the discrepancy would be larger if we examined DVOA only during Rodgers’ starts.
As noted above, the Seahawks are a much stronger defense against the run than the pass. The Packers are likely to try to run the ball for much of this game, but when the chips are down they’ll do most of their damage through the air.
Defensively, Green Bay is sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game on the season but only 16th in DVOA. This is due to their snail-like pace offensively — DVOA measures efficiency, while points reflect total production. Green Bay’s defense is average when they’re on the field, but that isn’t all that often. The Packers are eighth in time of possession on the year, with Seattle ranking dead last.
The tempo of this game will be decided by Green Bay, which is in the bottom five in situation-neutral pace.
NFL Pick: Seahawks vs. Packers
After opening at 51, the total in this game has fallen two to three points depending on the book and despite encouraging news surrounding the quarterbacks. Still, there’s value to be found on the under.
Simply put, there are far more scenarios in which this game is a slog than a shootout. Even with both Rodgers and Wilson playing, there are questions about Wilson’s effectiveness after returning from a broken finger so quickly.
Both teams also prefer to play slow, running football as long as they can. While this game will eventually open up offensively, it will likely happen late enough into the afternoon for the under to be assured.
The totals being offered by books now are probably a realistic mean scenario if this game were to be played 100 times. Some handful of those games would absolutely be a shootout, with both passing offenses lighting up the scoreboard.
However, the median expectation of this game falls short of the current number. With all the ways this game could fail to produce points, it’s the better bet.
Pick: Under 49 | Bet to: 49
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