Texans vs. Titans Odds, Predictions, Picks: Is There Value On This Week 11 NFL Over/Under?
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Adrian Peterson.
- In search of Texans vs. Titans odds? Find the latest spread and over/under in our Week 11 NFL betting preview below.
- While high-scoring offenses don't necessarily come to mind when you think of these teams, there could be plenty of points this Sunday.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
After suffering their eighth consecutive loss two weeks ago at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, the Houston Texans hope to rebound following their bye week when they head to Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans.
The Texans (1-8) kept the game close last time out against the Dolphins, but ultimately fell short in a 17-9 loss on the road. The Titans (8-2), meanwhile, find themselves with the top overall seed in the AFC playoff picture following a close 23-21 victory last week against the New Orleans Saints.
With the Titans hampered by a myriad of injuries, should we be looking at the Texans to cover this 10-point spread on the road in this Week 11 AFC South bout?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Texans vs. Titans Injury Report
- LB Hardy Nickerson (concussion): Out
- DL Jonathan Greenard (foot): Questionable
- DB Cre’Von LeBlanc (illness): Questionable
- RB Jeremy McNichols (concussion): Out
- TE Geoff Swaim (concussion): Out
- G Nate Davis (concussion): Out
- LB Bud Dupree (abdomen): Out
- LB Rashaan Evans (ankle): Out
- LB David Long (hamstring): Out
- CB Greg Mabin (ankle): Out
- CB Jackrabbit Jenkins (chest): Questionable
Texans vs. Titans Matchup
|Texans Offense||DVOA Rank||Titans Defense|
|Texans Defense||DVOA Rank||Titans Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Texans Face Banged-Up Defense
Expectations are low for this Texans team heading into a road matchup against a top-ranked Titans team. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor struggled last time out in his return from a hamstring injury, completing just 55% of his passes, throwing three interceptions and failing to pass for a touchdown.
On paper, this appears to be another tough matchup. The Titans currently rank 12th in Total DVOA and ninth in Pass DVOA on the season and held a much more powerful Rams offense to just 16 points two weeks ago. That said, they are hampered with injuries. The team already has 15 players on injured reserve, comes in with five defensive players out this week and will be starting cornerback Jackrabbit Jenkins, who is heading into this game with a questionable tag.
While the Titans’ 25th-ranked rush defense can be exploited, the Texans will also need to find success via the air if they want to keep this game close. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, the opportunity will be there for top receiving option Brandin Cooks. He’ll have a strong 77.1 matchup advantage when matched up against Chris Jackson, whom he projects to see on 35% of his snaps, and Cooks will also see a banged-up Jenkins on an additional 35% of plays.
Cooks has had success in similar matchups already this season, beginning the season with two 100+ yard performances in his first three games. If Taylor can get him the ball safely, expect big things from Cooks on Sunday.
Titans Can Exploit Rushing Defense, Even Without Henry
Despite the loss of star running back Derrick Henry to the IR, the Titans have continued to find success, albeit through a patchwork of players on both sides of the ball. Their 15 players on injured reserve include offensive stars like Henry and Julio Jones, which has resulted in a wildly different offensive look that we’re used to seeing.
That said, quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense will have a solid matchup against this 17th-ranked Texans defense. While the passing matchup is not overly imposing — Houston is ranked 14th in Pass DVOA — the better matchup will be via the run against Houston’s 27th-ranked Rush DVOA. With Jeremy McNichols out, Adrian Peterson and D’Onta Foreman will have an opportunity to step up big against this porous unit.
Wide receiver A.J. Brown will also have one of the best matchups on the slate here. He projects to have a 90.3 matchup advantage in this one against his primary defenders and should have plenty of deep ball opportunities throughout the afternoon.
NFL Pick: Texans vs. Titans
Football is a game of matchups. Despite the Texans’ offensive woes of-late, in Week 11 they’ll be taking on an extremely depleted Titans defense in a game that presents strong offensive opportunities throughout. While I don’t expect the Texans to put up 30 points here, there is nothing to suggest that this version of the Titans defense will completely shut them down.
On the other side, the Titans have proven that they can score in bunches, even despite missing marquee names like Henry and Jones. Against a porous Texans defense, don’t expect that to change on Sunday. Brown, in particular, should have a big bounce-back game here given the substantial matchup advantage he has over his primary defenders.
At the current total of 44.5, there is clear value on the over. I’m hammering this at the current line and would be comfortable playing it up to 47.
Pick: Over 44.5 | Bet to: Over 47
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