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NFL Sunday Touchdown Odds: Smart Week 4 Longshot Picks

NFL Sunday Touchdown Odds: Smart Week 4 Longshot Picks article feature image
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Bengals helmet. (Credit: Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports-Reuters)

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Did Broncos TE Nate Adkins (+2200) make your touchdown list Sunday? PRO Projections were all over it.

After cashing a diamond in the rough in Week 3, it's onto the best longshot touchdown plays for Sunday to see if premium NFL data model projections can stay hot.

Like clockwork, I tapped into PRO Anytime Touchdown projections and dug up three more high-level Week 4 picks with payouts of +1000, +1100 and +1200 that subscribers may want to monitor.

Can you guess who we expect to break out in Week 4?


NFL Touchdown Model's 3 Best Longshot Picks for Sunday, Week 4

PRO touchdown data spotted top longshot value in these games Sunday:

  • Commanders vs. Colts (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • Bengals vs. Jaguars (1:05 p.m. ET)
  • Dolphins vs. Vikings (4:05 p.m. ET)

Picks at odds of 10-1, 11-1 and 12-1 have a much, much lower probability of winning than picking a spread, total, or general player prop. Always exercise caution with unit sizing and use the edge percentage tool in the projections tab to determine how strong the grade is.

Nonetheless, data-driven PRO numbers offer an approach to beating the market.

And these three players are flat-out underrated to score after factoring in matchup, price, snap count, trends and more.

First up, we begin in London, where Colts