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The fourth week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 4, including picks for Packers vs. Buccaneers, Chiefs vs. Raiders, and more.
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NFL Player Props — Week 4
- Kaleb Johnson Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-110, bet365)
- Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Packers vs Buccaneers Player Prop: Kaleb Johnson Longest Rush
Kaleb Johnson has logged 40 carries in his career and just two have gone for more than 9.5 yards. That's a rate of 5%, while league average is 9.8% so far this year when there's at least 10 yards of room from the end zone.
Now he gets a matchup against a stout Buccaneers defense that still hasn't allowed an explosive run all year, despite missing key pieces of the defense at various points this season.
In Week 1, SirVocea Dennis barely played and the Bucs allowed 3.85 yards per carry with four runs between 10 and 13 yards. But in the two games since his snaps have been ramping up more, they've allowed just 2.2 yards per carry with only one run of 10 or more yards.
Yes, the absence of Ruben Bain Jr. will hurt, but Al-Quadin Muhammad is a capable replacement, and with him in for Bain in Week 3, the Bucs allowed 2.9 yards per carry with just one run beyond 9.5 yards on 21 RB carries.
Green Bay's offensive line has been brutal this year. The Packers simply haven't bee able to open up lanes for Johnson or Marshawn Lloyd, ranking second worst in adjusted yards before contact per FantasyPoints Data, while the Bucs rank second-best in preventing yards before contact.
I have Johnson staying below this north of 60% of the time. So, I'd play this down to around -135 to leave some wiggle room in case Green Bay runs more as a favorite here.
Pick: Kaleb Johnson Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-110)
Chiefs vs Raiders Player Prop: Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush
Kansas City is a stingier defense than what Ashton Jeanty has faced so far this year. The Chiefs allow 1.5 yards before contact compared to a weighted average of 1.97 among Jeanty's other opponents, and just a 2.6% explosive run rate compared to the 4.9% that the other defenses allowed.
Jeanty has just one explosive rush this year on 63 rushing attempts, and his only carry for more than 12 yards came in Week 1 against a Dolphins defense that allows the eighth highest explosive run rate this year.
When the line isn't generating yards for Jeanty, neither is he. Jeanty's yards after contact ranks just 19th out of 33 RBs with at least 30 carries this season.
It should be tough sledding for him this weekend against the Chiefs. I'm projecting him to stay under this line around 59.5% of the time.
Picks: Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-114)
Dr Nick's Week 4 Prop Bets
- Kaleb Johnson Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-110, bet365)
- Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)
