NFL Wild Card Picks & Predictions: Sunday Best Bets

NFL Wild Card Picks & Predictions: Sunday Best Bets

I have NFL Wild Card picks & predictions for four Wild Card Weekend games. I originally had a bet for Bills vs. Steelers on Jaylen Warren, but that line has moved past where I'd bet it.

Click on a pick below for my Wild Card Weekend best bets this weekend.

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Joe Flacco has been the best Browns quarterback this year by far, but he has thrown a pick on 3.9% of his passes. Meanwhile, the Texans have committed the fewest turnovers in the NFL (14) as C.J. Stroud finished with the NFL’s lowest interception rate among qualified quarterbacks (1.0%). In the postseason, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game roughly three-quarters of the time. The Browns are also converting just 34.2% of their third downs in Flacco’s starts, which would rank 27th over the full season.

Per our Action Labs data, Wild Card/Divisional higher-seeded dog/pick-’ems are 13-9-2 (59%) ATS over the past two decades. Saturday home dogs are 8-1-1 (89%) since 2007, covering by 1.9 points per game.

Bet to: +1

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Pierce has struggled to pick up the Texans’ new rushing scheme under Bobby Slowik, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry and failing to top 3.8 yards per carry in a game all season.

In what was essentially a playoff game last week, Pierce played exactly zero snaps on offense. The game prior he posted eight carries for 16 yards in a blowout, but in two games prior to that, his rushing lines were 3/6/0 and 1/3/0.

Barring the 2-5% chance that Devin Singletary suffers an in-game injury, we’re looking at a goose egg as the most likely outcome for Pierce – but the bet will still get action because Pierce is now the team’s primary kickoff returner.

Bet to: 6.5

Pick: Dameon Pierce Under 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

On the one hand, the Dolphins defense is reeling from season-ending injuries to its top three edge rushers – Bradley Chubb (ACL), Jaelan Phillips (Achilles), and Andrew Van Ginkel (foot) – as well as linebacker Jerome Baker (wrist). On the other hand, the Chiefs are 4-5 in Patrick Mahomes’ last nine starts, including losses to the defensively challenged Broncos (30th in defensive DVOA), Eagles (29th), and Packers (27th).

One of the Chiefs’ wins during that span came against these Dolphins by a score of 21-14 in Week 9, but that was a game that could have gone either way, as Miami edged Kansas City in total yardage 292-267 and yards per play 5.0-4.8 but couldn’t overcome a fluky Tyreek Hill fumble-six that proved to be the difference in the game.

Since that win, the Chiefs’ only other wins have come against Aidan O’Connell, Bailey Zappe, and Jake Browning — excluding Week 18 where Mahomes and other key starters rested.

Despite the recent rash of defensive injuries, the Dolphins still have quality players on all three levels and are coordinated by one of the best in the game in Vic Fangio. Miami was able to pressure Josh Allen on 44.4% of his dropbacks last week with Fangio opting to dial up a more blitz-heavy approach than he’s used in the past — something we could see again this week, as defenses have been able to get away with blitzing Mahomes this year more than ever before, with his 7.4 yards per attempt when blitzed this season.

Fangio blitzed Mahomes on 48.8% of his dropbacks in the first matchup, giving up one touchdown but otherwise holding him to just 5.5 yards per attempt.

With Jalen Ramsey leading their cornerback corps, the Dolphins are still capable of playing man coverage, which they’ve done at a top-five rate this season. The Chiefs posted their lowest scoring output of the Mahomes era at 21.8 points per game this year, and one of the main reasons for the dip is the inability of the receiving corps to consistently beat man coverage.

According to FTN, Mahomes is averaging just 5.9 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt vs. man coverage this season compared to 6.7 against zone. The issues start at the top of the target totem pole, with Travis Kelce’s yards per route run going from 2.34 against zone to 1.62 vs. man, and Rashee Rice’s going from 2.91 against zone to 1.79 vs. man.

In the Week 9 matchup, the Dolphins held Rice to a season-low 17 yards on two catches (though one did go for a touchdown) and Kelce to a season-low 14 yards on three catches. Therein lies the issue for the Chiefs: If the opponent has a corner that can handle Rice one-on-one, a defense can focus the rest of its attention on bracketing Travis Kelce without fear of getting beat by the likes of Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, et al.

That also allows defenses to devote more resources to stopping the run, which has led to the Chiefs ranking a middling 17th in rushing DVOA after finishing top-10 in each of the past two seasons.

Despite their defensive shortcomings, the Dolphins are dangerous because they still possess the NFL’s second-best offense according to DVOA. Kansas City’s somewhat lucky win against Miami marked its only win against an opponent with top-10 offense in five tries.

Though much of the focus this week will rightfully be on who the Dolphins are without, one player who will be available that wasn’t in Week 9 is De’Von Achane, who leads all running backs with 7.7 yards per touch (min. 100 touches) and has scored on 8.5% of his touches.

The Chiefs defense has been the best of the Mahomes era, but they have been highly susceptible to running backs, clocking in at 27th in DVOA against the run and 21st in DVOA on passes to running backs. Achane and the run game could be a major factor with forecasts calling for single-digit temps and double-digit mph winds.

The Chiefs are leaning on sound defense rather than explosive offense to win games, but with that comes lower-scoring games and more variance, which tends to favor underdogs – especially ones as explosive as Miami. Even after removing sack yardage, the Dolphins still average 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and it has been unprofitable to fade these highly efficient passing teams in the postseason.

Per our Action Labs data, teams averaging at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt after removing sack yardage are 32-15 (68%) ATS against teams averaging fewer than 7.5 since 2011, covering by 3.6 points per game.

The market also tends to underrate the possibility of upsets in the opening round of the playoffs. This has especially been true with the No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed matchup, with 6-seed underdogs going 20-14 (59%) ATS over the past two decades and winning nine of the last 12 outright dating back to the 2017 postseason according to our Action Labs data.

Also per Action Labs: Wild Card road dogs +7 or less are 30-18-1 (62.5%) ATS since 2003, covering by 1.9 points per game.

Bet to: +3.5

Hardman went off for 77 receiving yards on 11 targets last week – but that came with all the starters resting. In Hardman’s five other games with the Chiefs, he has recorded receiving totals of six, 13, 10, 12 and zero on an average route participation rate of 21%.

I have Hardman projected for a median of one catch, and he's averaging 8.3 yards per reception at a target depth of 5.3 with the Chiefs, so there is an out even if he plays more than expected or catches multiple passes.

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Any team that wants to hang with the Cowboys has to be able to score, and the Packers can do just that. Not only does the Green Bay offense (sixth in DVOA) rate better than Dallas’ (ninth) on the season, but it has moved into the top three in Weighted DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily.

It took Jordan Love a couple of months to knock off the cobwebs from sitting for the better part of three seasons, but since November he has been borderline elite.

• September-October (seven games): 19.3-of-33.4 (57.7%) for 213.3 yards (6.4 yards per attempt), 1.6 TD, 1.1 INT, 2.0 sacks
• November-end of season (10 games): 23.7-of-34.5 (68.7%), 266.6 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 2.1 TD, 0.3 INT, 1.5 sacks

Love has balled out since November despite No. 1 wide receiver Christian Watson missing the past five games, No. 1 tight end Luke Musgrave missing six games before returning last week, No. 1 running back Aaron Jones missing three games, and emerging rookie wideouts Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks also missing time.

If Watson (hamstring) is able to suit up this Sunday, it will mark the first time Love will have his top four wide receivers, top two tight ends, and Jones healthy at the same time since Week 11. Jones has added another dimension to the offense, with three straight games over 110 rushing yards.

The offensive line is tied for seventh in Pass Blocking Efficiency since Week 9 and should be able to hold its own vs. a Cowboy pass rush that has been good but not dominant, ranking eighth in sack rate (8.3%), T-13th in sacks per game (2.71), and 16th in pressure rate (21.3%), per Pro Football Reference.

In terms of PFF pass-blocking grade, both Packer tackles – Rasheed Walker (74.1, 22nd) and Zack Tom (73.9, 23rd) – grade out in the top 25 among 83 qualifiers on the season.

The Cowboys play the NFL’s highest rate of man coverage in the league with Stephon Gilmore (questionable, shoulder) and DaRon Bland on the outside, but that shouldn’t be an issue for Love, who has been better vs. man (97.9 rating) than zone (84.6). Going on the road also shouldn’t be an issue, as the Packers rank third in the NFL with 25.3 points per game on the road.

Thanks to their surging offense, the Packers are up to 12th in overall Weighted DVOA – eight spots behind the Cowboys. The Cowboys are rightly favored – they’ll be able to score against Joe Barry’s maddeningly underachieving defense – but the Packers have enough offensive firepower to keep the score close or secure a backdoor cover if needed.

Per our Action Labs data, Sunday Wild Card/Divisional Round single-digit road dogs are 46-16-1 (74%) ATS since 2003, covering by 4.4 points per game.

Bet to: +6.5

Goff has recorded positive rushing yardage in only five games. Nineteen of his 31 carries this season have been kneel-downs, and he has scrambled on only 1.1% of his dropbacks, per PFF.

The Lions are favored at home, so Goff is also the more likely of the two quarterbacks in this game to get kneel-downs.