NFL Week 6 Predictions: 3 Bets for Ravens vs. Giants, Vikings vs Dolphins, More

NFL Week 6 Predictions: 3 Bets for Ravens vs. Giants, Vikings vs Dolphins, More article feature image

Todd Olszewski/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.

  • One of our expert handicappers has identified three games to bet at 1 p.m. ET.
  • Check out Stuckey's three picks for the early slate of Week 6.

I bet on three NFL sides during the week in the early slate on Sunday, which I will detail below.

My favorite bet actually kicks off on Sunday night in the CowboysEagles game. I will preview that game separately, so make sure you check that out on the app before Sunday Night Football kicks off.

Ravens Odds-6
Giants Odds+6
Moneyline-250 / +205
TimeSunday, 1 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.

I was higher than almost anybody on the Giants coming into the season, primarily as a result of their coaching upgrades. However, it's time to finally sell the G-Men after an unexpected 4-1 start.

There is plenty of familiarity between Lamar Jackson and new Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who had the same position with Baltimore from 2018-21. What do we know about Wink? He loves to blitz, regardless of the matchup. Therefore, it's no surprise that New York leads the league with a 43.3% blitz rate in 2022.

A blitz-heavy attack may have worked against Jackson last season, but the Ravens worked all offseason on their offense against the blitz after it stymied them countless times last season.

So far, the results have been stunningly good. Jackson has shredded the blitz this season with seven touchdowns to just one interception to go along with the league's second-highest QB Rating. Additionally, the Giants struggle to guard tight ends, ranking 25th in DVOA. Look for Mark Andrews to have a monster day.

Click Here: Bet Ravens -6 at FanDuel

The Ravens offensive line is also as healthy as it's been all season after former All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley returned from injury last week. He allowed no pressures on 13 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, rookie center Tyler Linderbaum notched his fourth straight start allowing no more than one pressure.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens now have two healthy lockdown corners on the outside in Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. That duo can sit on islands on the outside against a banged-up and underwhelming Giants receiving corps, allowing Baltimore to stack the box to contain Saquon Barkley.

This sets up as a good spot and matchup for the Ravens on the road. For what it's worth, Jackson boasts an impressive 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record on the road, covering by nearly a touchdown per game. That includes a 12-4 ATS (75%) mark as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown. Conversely, Daniel Jones is just 9-13 ATS (40.9%) at home.

Vikings Odds-3
Dolphins Odds+3
Moneyline-168 / +140
TimeSunday, 1 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.

I thought this line went too far in the direction of the Vikings after news broke that rookie Skylar Thompson would start under center. He wasn't very effective last week but will now have time to work with the first-team offense all week. It's also not meaningless that he looked very good in the preseason, which is why he made the roster.

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel should have a very basic game plan for Thompson. The Dolphins can lean on their run game against a Vikings defense that ranks 27th in Rush Success Rate. That should open up the play-action passing attack to allow Thompson to hit his explosive receivers on easy reads, enabling them to do what they do best: accumulate yards after the catch.

FanDuel Quickslip: Bet Miami +3

I also think Minnesota is also a bit of a paper tiger, resting its laurels on the season-opening win against a beat-up Packers squad. By the way, that victory looks much worse than it did in Week 1.

If you look at their other wins this season, the Vikings had a miraculous comeback at home against the Lions, a three-point win in London against a shorthanded Saints squad with Andy Dalton at quarterback, and a one-possession win over the Bears. Chicago's anemic offense even had success moving the ball, which isn't a great sign for that defense.

In their only true road game, the Vikings got blown out by the Eagles. I'll happily take the home 'dog catching a field goal here.

Buccaneers Odds-10
Steelers Odds+10
Moneyline-450 / +350
TimeSunday, 1 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.

I played the Steelers earlier this week, knowing the risk with both teams dealing with major injury questions. Pittsburgh will be the largest home underdog it's been in 40 years after suffering a 35-point loss at Buffalo last week. For what it's worth, the Steelers are 17-4-3 ATS as home dogs over the past 20 years.

In general, NFL teams coming off losses that big always warrant a look the following week. The market tends to overreact a bit while you generally get that teams' best effort after such an embarrassing defeat. Here are a few trends that back that up:

  • Since 2003, teams that lost by 35+ the previous week have gone 71-41-5 (63.4%) ATS, covering by an average of three points per game. That includes an absurd 47-17-12 (73.4%) clip when catching more than a field goal.
  • For a larger sample size of approximately 400 games, home dogs off of a loss of 24 or more points have covered at a 57.5% rate since 1980.

In this case, you also have head coach Mike Tomlin, who is a master at motivating his teams in these types of spots. Tomlin is the most profitable coach as an underdog over the past 20 years.

Add Steelers +10 to Your FanDuel Betslip

Meanwhile, Tom Brady is only 16-15 ATS in his career as a favorite of more than eight points on the road. It's one of the few spots where he isn't an ATM historically.

I also believe Kenny Pickkett is an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky. Additionally, the Bucs have issues of their own. They're dealing with injuries at receiver and in the secondary while the offensive line is still trying to figure things out in front of Brady.

Unfortunately, the news didn't work out in my favor with Pittsburgh ruling out safety Minkah Fitzpatrick along with its top three corners. Dealing with a cluster of injuries in the secondary against Brady is a scary proposition, especially since T.J. Watt remains sidelined. Without Watt on the field last year, the Steelers allowed a full yard per play more than when he was on the field.

Knowing what I know now, I'd need +10 to bet the Steelers, and that's the number we have at FanDuel as of Saturday afternoon.

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