I'm targeting two NFL picks on Sunday of Week 17, including predictions for Seahawks vs. Panthers and Buccaneers vs. Dolphins.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the second-to-last Sunday of the regular season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 17 Predictions & Spread Picks
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Seahawks vs Panthers Spread Prediction
The Panthers are 8-4 ATS as underdogs this season, including 5-1 ATS as home ‘dogs.
Dave Canales was known as a quarterback whisperer for his work with Geno Smith in Seattle in the early 2020s, and then as OC for the Bucs in 2023, so it shouldn’t go overlooked that the Panthers offense is trending upward.
Carolina ranks 10th in offensive DVOA since Week 10, which is better than the Seahawks (13th).
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have come back down to earth a bit. Their pass offense went from No. 1 in DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to 13th in Weeks 10-16, again dripping below Carolina over that span (10th).
The Seahawks are below-average at converting on both third down (22nd) and in the red zone (18th).
Seattle's offense has gone flat for a stretch in pretty much every game over the past six weeks, leading to four one-score games – even the Atlanta and Minnesota blowouts were a lot closer than they appeared, and could have easily ended up as one-score games.
Seattle has gone for it on fourth down an NFL-low 10 times all season, and has been content settling for field goals, attempting the second-most in the league (42), which should make large numbers like this profitable against them.
Per our Action Labs data, December favorites that have won nine of their last 10 games like the Seahawks are 51-72 (41%) ATS since 2004.
Pick: Panthers +7.5 (-120)
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Buccaneers vs Dolphins Over/Under Pick
The Buccaneers have been out of sorts and will be without LT Tristan Wirfs (toe), but in games in which at least one of Mike Evans/Chris Godwin has suited up, Baker Mayfield averages 7.7 yards per pass attempt and has led the offense to 26.6 points per game.
With both Evans and Godwin out in Weeks 7-14, the operation devolved into a 19.1 point, 5.3-YPA disaster.
Even with Tristan Wirfs out, the Bucs are in better shape than they’ve been much of the season. Wirfs has missed four games already, but RT Luke Goedeke, who also grades out as one of the better tackles in the league, has missed six games.
Talented second-year players in RB Bucky Irving and WR Jalen McMillan have missed seven and 13, respectively, and all will be in the lineup.
Joe Burrow came into last week’s matchup with the Dolphins in danger of finishing with career-low efficiency numbers, then went 25-of-32 for 300+ yards, 4 TDs, and no interceptions.
The Dolphins set up as a pass funnel, ranking 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass and seventh versus the run.
On the Miami offensive side, Quinn Ewars isn’t much of a downgrade for the total compared to the benched Tua Tagovailoa. The rookie’s 8.7 aDOT was 2.1 yards per attempt higher than Tagovailoa’s, and his completed air yards (6.3) was 1.5 yards per completion higher than Tua's (4.8).
The Bucs also set up as a pass funnel thanks to the presence of Vita Vea on the interior, and the Dolphins have players capable of creating explosives after the catch in De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and Malik Washington.
Pick: Over 44.5 (-110)
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