Freedman’s NFL Week 13 Trends & Early Bets: Bank on These Big Home Favorites
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Brian Flores (center).
Week 12: It was totally normal and not at all unbelievable in any manner whatsoever.
I take the evening off … and Matt Patricia get fired, the Ravens put six more players on the COVID-19 list, Austin Ekeler is activated off IR, and the Broncos lose all their QBs.
I'll update projections and fire rockets later tonight.
AMA. 30 minutes.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 29, 2020
Hopefully, Week 13 will be a little less memorable. Let’s take a look at some applicable trends for the early spreads.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for two games this week.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Early Week 13 NFL Picks
Click on a pick to skip to that analysis.
|Dolphins -9.5 vs. Bengals||FanDuel|
|Vikings -9.5 vs. Jaguars||DraftKings|
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS
It’s way past time that we give the Dolphins and head coach Brian Flores their due.
Since joining Miami last year, Flores has coached his team to a 17-10 record against the spread (ATS), good for a 21.7% return on investment (ROI). And if you remove the first month of last season, during which the Dolphins were experimenting all over the place with their personnel, they are 17-6 ATS (42.9% ROI).
And even though quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is now officially the backup, he has done well for the Dolphins, especially over the past calendar year. Dating back to Week 13 of the 2019 season, Fitzpatrick is 9-3 ATS (45.3% ROI).
As for the Bengals, head coach Zac Taylor is a mediocre 7-10 ATS in his games without quarterback Joe Burrow.
- Action: Dolphins -9.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: -12 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (-9.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS
Not since his first year with the Vikings in 2014 has head coach Mike Zimmer had a losing record. But at 5-6, Zimmer has disappointed in 2020. His team is barely in the running for the final NFC wild card.
But this is a get-right spot for them.
Since 2014, Zimmer is an A-graded 66-40-1 ATS (21.1% ROI).
With his elite ATS record, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.
- At home: 34-19-1 ATS | 24.8% ROI
- As favorite: 38-23-1 | 21.4% ROI
- Outside of division: 45-21-1 | 32% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have been under him.
Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager,” and the Vikings have historically been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.
They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.
This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.
As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-7-1 ATS (41.4% ROI).
As for the Jaguars, opponents have been profitable against them each year of the post-hype era following their near-Super Bowl run back in 2017.
- 2018 (16 games): 9-5-2 ATS | 22.6% ROI
- 2019 (16 games): 9-7 ATS | 9.3% ROI
- 2020 (seven games): 6-5 ATS | 7.4% ROI
In total, opposing teams are 24-17-2 ATS (13.8% ROI) against head coach Doug Marrone’s Jags since 2018.
- Action: Vikings -9.5 (-110) at DraftKings
- Limit: -10 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 816-641-29 (56%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.