NFL Week 1 Player Props: 3 Kicker Picks Showing Value According to Expert Projections
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Rodrigo Blankenship.
Week 1 of the NFL season is here!
What better way to kick off the season than by kickin' it with me, Dr. Nick?
I'll be using kicking attempt projections from Action Networks Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, in combination with my kicker efficiency model to find my favorite props for kicker throughout the 2022-23 NFL season.
We’re kickin' off the season in Week 1 with these three kicker props:
NFL Week 1 Player Props
Robbie Gould
Under 7.5 Kicking Points
The 49ers plays in Chicago, which at the time of this writing is forecast to have a 75% or more chance of rain throughout the game. In addition, it’s slated to be the coldest (69 degrees) and windiest (10 mph) game of the weekend.
While the weather and temperature don’t have a major impact, any little bit matters in the model.
I’m forecasting Gould to hit the under at a 59.3% rate, making fair odds on this prop -145. Sean Koerner’s projections show fair on this at -137, so we’re both showing value here.
DraftKings and BetMGM have this at -125, which is the number I’d bet this to. bet365 has the best number at -120.
Rodrigo Blankenship
Over 1.5 Field Goals
From 2019-21, Matt Ryan-quarterbacked teams averaged 2.1 field goals made per game. Koerner’s projections have Blankenship projected for almost exactly 2.0 attempts.
Also, the turf field at NRG Stadium and the high temperature will both help kicking accuracy.
I project this prop to go over 50.5% of the time. The best number is +115 at BetMGM.
Evan McPherson
Over 2.5 Extra Points Made
Koerner projected the Bengals for close to three touchdowns, and the Bengals’ 2-point-conversion attempt rate is less than league average. That puts McPherson’s projected extra-point attempts at 2.778.
There are no weather concerns for this game to worry about in Cincinnati.
There’s a 52.4% chance this goes over compared to 46.5% implied odds. The best number I’m seeing on this is +115 at DraftKings.
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