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Colts vs Texans: Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction for NFL Week 1

Colts vs Texans: Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction for NFL Week 1 article feature image
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Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Dameon Pierce.

  • The Colts are favored by 7 points over the Texans, although that number has consistently gone down.
  • Matt Ryan is set for his first Colts start opposite second-year QB Davis Mills.
  • Sam Farley breaks down the matchup and which player prop he's betting below.

Colts vs. Texans Odds

Sunday, Sept. 11
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Colts Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7.5
-104
45.5
-115o / -105u
-335
Texans Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7.5
-118
45.4
-115o / -105u
+270
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Week 1 has served us a nice AFC South divisional game for our NFL Week 1 picks, with the Colts traveling to the NRG Stadium to face a Texans team that will be desperate to improve on its four wins from last year.

The Colts narrowly missed out on playoffs last year, and their fanbase will be hoping the addition of Matt Ryan, a huge upgrade over Carson Wentz, is enough to take them deep into the playoffs.

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Colts vs. Texans Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Colts and Texans match up statistically:

Colts vs. Texans DVOA Breakdown (Stats from 2021)
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 13 23
Pass DVOA 20 22
Rush DVOA 2 22
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 28 8
Pass DVOA 29 17
Rush DVOA 32 3

Wentz committed a pair of turnovers in Week 18 last season against the Jaguars that cost the Colts a spot in the playoffs. It’s unlikely Ryan, the 2016 MVP, will be as erratic under center. Historically, the longtime Falcons QB has thrown his share of picks, but we’re unlikely to see as many this season with Indianapolis leaning heavily on Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor rushed for 1,811 yards last year, but Ryan will lessen his workload. However, that won’t happen against a Texans defense that allowed 142.2 rushing yards per game last season. Taylor should dominate.

The Texans will be led by Davis Mills, who’s looking to build off a successful rookie season. His 88.8 passer rating was higher than that of both Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, who were drafted first and second overall. It’s still unclear if he’ll become a franchise quarterback, but with a 16:11 TD/INT ratio he could be a solid game manager, even if he lacks the ability to do the spectacular.

Left tackle Laremy Tunsil will be tasked with keeping Mills upright. Tunsil is one of the best in the league, but the rest of the offensive line is a bit of an unknown. If they can keep it together, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins could cause problems for the Colts secondary. Collins, a potential breakout candidate, is a big, physical receiver who could eventually become a go-to target for Mills.

Betting Picks

Backing the Colts against the spread feels like the smartest bet here. It’s the biggest spread on the board Sunday, though, and the Texans turned up defensively enough times last season that it’s probably wise to wait and see how they look this season. We’ll go elsewhere for our bet.

The big buzz in Houston is around rookie running back Dameon Pierce. The former Florida RB flew up fantasy draft boards after receiving glowing reports from training camp and thriving in the preseason.

I’m a card-carrying member of the Pierce Fan Club. We saw what he was capable of in preseason as he averaged 6.2 and 9.8 yards per carry in each of his two appearances. He was so good that the team cut Marlon Mack and named Pierce the starter ahead of Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale. The coaching staff really trusts this guy.

Although the Texans will likely be playing from behind, I’m expecting Pierce to get enough carries to easily surpass his rushing line of 48.5.

FanDuel Quickslip: Dameon Pierce — Over 48.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to 54.5

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