For NFL Week 9, I'm all over the 1 p.m. ET Sunday slate as I have spread and moneyline picks for Falcons vs Patriots, Colts vs Steelers and Broncos vs Texans.
Let's get into my NFL Week 9 picks and predictions for Sunday, November 2.
NFL Week 9 Picks & Predictions
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Falcons vs Patriots
It's a healthy dose of selling high on some first-place AFC teams for me.
Let's start with the Patriots, who have raced out to a 6-2 start under head coach Mike Vrabel. A large part of their early season success can be attributed to the outstanding play of Drake Maye, who leads all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite.
He's been particularly lethal with the deep ball. On the season, Maye has completed 18-of-23 20+ yard throws (78.3%) for 549 yards (23.9 yards per attempt!), with six touchdowns and no interceptions. You can't get much better than that.
Maye deserves even more credit considering he doesn't get much help elsewhere.
The Patriots running game has really struggled to get going, ranking 30th in Success Rate and 31st in EPA. The offensive line also has deficiencies in pass protection, as Maye has faced pressure on over 36% of his drop backs. He has basically performed at an All-Pro level when kept clean, but does take a bit too many sacks when opposing defenses can get in the backfield.
So far this season, only Cam Ward has a higher pressure-to-sack ratio among all qualified quarterbacks.
So, can Atlanta slow down this New England passing attack?
When healthy, the Falcons can at least generate pressure and they should get some key defenders back this week — although they will have to make do without Zach Harrison once again.
More importantly, Atlanta has excelled in limiting explosive plays through the air, which is absolutely critical against Maye, who likely will see some natural regression over the rest of the season in that department.
Additionally, with a fully healthy projected offense, Atlanta can keep up against a suspect New England defense (28th DVOA) that really doesn't do anything well outside of stopping the run.
Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London will return to the lineup and the offensive line excels in pass protection. Look for Bijan Robinson to have a massive day catching the ball out of the backfield against a Patriots defense that has the worst group of coverage linebackers in the league.
It's okay to credit the Patriots for their fast start, while also acknowledging their easy schedule.
This is still a team that lost at home against the Steelers and Raiders, with their only victory over a projected playoff team coming against Buffalo. The Patriots' other wins came against Miami, Carolina, New Orleans, Tennessee and Cleveland. Those five teams have a combined 10-31 record.
Only the Colts have arguably faced an easier schedule of opposing quarterbacks, which has led to plenty of turnover help for this New England defense that ranks fourth in EPA but 19th in Success Rate.
The Patriots have also benefited from some unsustainable fourth-down fortune. On the season, they have converted 10-of-12 (83.3%), while their opponents have only came away successful on 3-of-11 (27.7%).
Ultimately, I think it's time to sell high on the Pats following five straight wins with the last three coming against Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel and the recently benched Spencer Rattler.
It's also a chance to buy low on the Falcons after two straight losses in a save-their-season type of spot after falling to 3-4.
Notable Nugget: This game does fit a spot I have always loved betting.
Teams off a loss by more than two TDs as a TD+ favorite have gone 33-16-1 ATS (67.1%) since 2003, covering by over a FG per game. That includes a 24-9-1 ATS mark on the road (72.7%) and 10-3-1 (76.9%) when catching over a field goal on the highway.
That just illustrates we should get Atlanta's best effort as you'd expect after getting embarrassed last week at home vs. Miami.
Pick: Falcons +6.5 (-135)
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Colts vs Steelers
The Colts and Patriots have had very similar (and surprising) starts to the season.
Daniel Jones has played at a Pro Bowl level for an offense that has been historically dominant through eight weeks. However, Indianapolis has also benefited from one of the league's easiest schedules, that has included a pair of blowout wins over the lowly Titans in addition to victories over the Dolphins, Raiders and Cardinals.
While improved after the departure of defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, the Colts defense remains extremely suspect (24th Success Rate) and has really benefited from a schedule filled with the league's worst quarterbacks and a Chargers team that had a completely dysfunctional offensive line at the time.
Additionally, the secondary now has injuries with star cornerback Charvarius Ward on IR. We saw the ramifications of his loss against the Cardinals (with Jacoby Brissett and a banged-up wide receiver room) and the Chargers (even with a decrepit offensive line) — who put up nearly 850 combined yards.
Can this broken Steelers defense contain this electric Colts offense?
It's hard to have much confidence after what we've seen on that side of the ball so far this season. Plus, Pittsburgh will now have to work around the loss of injured starting safety DeShon Elliott. I'm curious to see what the Steelers decide to do with their secondary rotation and if they decide to mix up their coverage looks. Something has to change.
I will say the Steelers have underperformed their overall talent level on that side of the ball, while I'm not sure the Colts can play any better on offense.
As a result, we are likely buying at a low point on Pittsburgh's defense, while simultaneously selling high on the Indianapolis offense. Admittedly, I might just not be high enough on the Colts even after upgrading them every single week since the start of the season, but I just can't get this spread to a field goal or more.
I really can't make a strong case for why the Pittsburgh defense will look better this week other than it can't look much worse. Simply improving the poor tackling would serve as a decent starting point.
However, I do believe the Steelers offense can keep up. As I mentioned previously, the Colts have injuries on the defensive side of the ball and may even be without Grover Stewart along the interior, which would really hurt their run-stopping ability.
Indianapolis has major issues covering tight ends (2nd worst in the league), which could spell doom against a Steelers offense that uses multiple tight ends on over 50% of their snaps. The Steelers have routinely torched the Lou Anarumo defensive scheme in recent seasons.
Lastly, it's at least worth mentioning that the Colts have essentially played every single one of their games indoors at home or in SoFi Stadium. The one exception came in Tennessee with perfect weather against a completely inept Titans defense.
Could that play a role in slowing down Indy just a bit? Possibly, but it certainly should magnify the kicking advantage the Steelers will have with Chris Boswell vs. Michael Badgley in the league's toughest kicking venue.
Ultimately, I'm selling high on the Colts and buying low on the Steelers in a classic Tomlin "Rah Rah" spot where his teams will usually get some voodoo along the way.
And if there's one team due for some potential bad bounces, it's the Colts, who have a +8 turnover margin and an 83% fourth-down conversion rate compared to 50% for their opponents.
Notable Nugget: Mike Tomlin is the most-profitable coach of all-time as an underdog of three or more points. In that role, he has gone 40-21-3 (65.6%), including 11-2-3 ATS at home (84.6%) with a +8 average cover margin.
He's also gone 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%) in that spot when the opponent has a winning percentage north of 60%, covering by a whopping 10 PPG.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-116)
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Broncos vs Texans
I'm going back to the well with the Texans at home after last week's flawless performance against the 49ers.
Houston certainly benefited from facing a completely decimated San Francisco defense that remains incapable of generating pressure without Nick Bosa along with a host of other key injuries. That certainly made life much easier for C.J. Stroud, who has really struggled against pressure and the blitz in recent seasons behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
However, the Texans did add in some nice new wrinkles to help in pass protection, which should help this week against a ferocious Broncos pass rush that also loves to blitz.
The emergence of Woody Marks out of the backfield has helped elevate the floor of the Houston offense. He could play a major role in that area against a Broncos defense that ranks 30th in the league in that department.
Additionally, the impact of the loss of star cornerback Patrick Surtain can't be overstated. He basically takes away the other team's best receiver and locks down one side of the field, providing the Denver defense with both unlimited flexibility and the worry-free ability to be ultra-aggressive.
The drop-off from the reigning defensive player of the year to Kris Abrams-Draine is astronomic, especially with both Nico Collins (who had nine catches for 191 yards the last time he faced Denver) and Christian Kirk set to return from injury. Plus, it doesn't hurt that the young Houston receivers really gained some much-needed confidence last week.
The protection issues could ruin this game for the Texans, which we've seen in the past. However, I'll take the superior quarterback and defense at home against an overvalued Broncos team that has skated by some bad teams over the past month.
Denver has won five straight, but it barely beat the Jets in London when New York had -10 net passing yards. It then needed a miraculous comeback at home against the Giants and had a similar type of comeback vs. the Eagles.
The two easy victories came at home against the Bengals (with Jake Browning) and the Cowboys, who arguably have the two worst defenses in the league. This is a major step up in class for Bo Nix.
Houston's pass defense has been historically dominant so far this season, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in essentially every category. That spells trouble for Nix, who has done almost all of his damage this season against incompetent defenses and really struggles against the most frequent Houston zone coverage looks.
Even at home against the Giants, the Broncos had zero points through three quarters before a fourth-quarter explosion after New York had multiple secondary injuries that forced them into more prevent looks.
Notable Nugget: Home favorites with a sub-.500 winning percentage have gone 21-10 ATS (67.7%) against opponents with a winning percentage of 75%-plus that have won multiple games in a row.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (-130)
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Stuckey's Week 9 Betting Card
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
- Falcons +6.5 (-135)
- Steelers +3.5 (-116)
- Texans Moneyline (-130)
